Will Bill Simmons leave ESPN?

I just finished reading a very interesting post on The Big Lead discussing whether Bill Simmons will leave ESPN when his contract is up later this year.

For years, the Sports Guy has been my favorite sportswriter.  That's not to say that he is necessarily the best sportswriter, or the most knowledgeable, or the most connected to the athletes.  He is just my favorite journalist to read and to listen to.  His columns really are written from the fan's perspective, so he doesn't pull punches and he throws in pop culture references that usually make you laugh.  And besides, where would we be without such Simmons staples as the Levels of Losing, the Tyson Zone, the Ewing/Tiki Theory, the Peyton/Eli Manning Face, and of course his omnipresent mailbags (which, in my opinion, were the foundation for Deadspin's funbags)??

That's not to say Bill Simmons is perfect.  Far from it.  His obsession with basketball has become so dominant (especially in light of his NY Times bestselling magnum opus "Book of Basketball") that he has strayed from his MLB and NFL coverage that made him so popular in the first place.  He has abused pop culture references from Rocky, the Shawshank Redemption, Hoosiers, and Beverly Hills 90210 so much that he is left with The Bachelor, The Hills, and Battlestar Galactica -- which fly far over the heads of the majority of his audience.  And lately, he has relied so heavily on his podcast that he writes barely one column per week on ESPN.com -- way below his previous output.  In fact, his work on 30-for-30 and the podcasts and Twitter makes you question if he is primarily a writer anymore.

But the fact remains that Bill Simmons rules the sports world.  He has over 1.1 million Twitter followers.  He has authored two highly successful books (and his book signings were raucously popular).  No matter where he goes, people will read his columns, listen to his podcasts, watch him on late night appearances, and buy his books.  He desperately wants to rip into his ESPN "colleagues" so I really do envision him leaving for that opportunity, among others.  If he left, he could potentially make more money, sure, but he would also have greater creative freedom and could live without fear of censure from the ABC/ESPN empire.

TBL set odds on where Simmons will end up if he leaves ESPN:

5: 1 Yahoo (would they pay?)
15:1 Sports Illustrated (smallest online audience of these five; probably don’t have the money to make a run at him; he doesn’t seem to have any interest in writing for magazines)
20:1 Fox Sports (like to take chances online; would get to work alongside his buddy Whitlock)
35:1 CBS Sports (2nd smallest audience of the ‘big five’; could rise Simmons talks his way  into some form of TV work for NFL, college football & college hoops)

I think they're pretty spot-on, although I might add a long-shot, dark horse blog like Deadspin at, perhaps, 150:1.  Simmons's contract talks with ESPN in the past have been ugly.  The network limits the scope of his biting sarcasm.  And leaving the Worldwide Leader hasn't ruined everyone's career (see: Gammons, Peter and Patrick, Dan).  Bottom line, if I had to bet money, I'm going with Yahoo.  They already have the biggest audience and (by far) the best fantasy infrastructure.  If I'm a Yahoo exec, I'm looking to capture the remaining chunk of the Simmons-reading, fantasy-playing crowd by hiring the biggest gun out there.  That would really put some distance between Yahoo and ESPN.

I just don't want to see Simmons stay at ESPN.  You've made it to the big time, Sports Fella.  Time to spread your wings.

H/T to Behind Blondie Park for the photo.