Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Yankees Lineup

Joe Girardi stated coming into Spring Training that the lineup would probably be the biggest question to be answered prior to the start of the season. What makes it particularly interesting is that two players who basically hit in the same spots in the order all of last season (Johnny Damon-2 spot and Hideki Matsui-5 spot) have departed and have been replaced by two very different players in Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson.

When looking at the lineup, there are basically only three players locked into their spots in the lineup: Derek Jeter (1), Mark Teixeira (3), and Alex Rodriguez (4). Joe Girardi wisely moved Derek Jeter to the leadoff spot last year, citing his superior OBP and the potential for the move to negate his propensity to hit into double plays. Where everyone else will wind up remains a mystery.

In Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson, the Yankees have two very similar players. Both are lefty hitters, both can hit for power, and both are fairly athletic (with Cano being a good runner and Granderson possessing the ability to fly around the base paths). They also both have a problem when it comes to getting on base, taking pitches, and hitting with runners in scoring position.

In Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher, the Yankees have another set of similar hitters. Both are switch hitters, both can hit for power, both can get on base, and both are capable of quality at-bats. Neither of them will break records with their speed, particularly Posada, so they are probably better suited as run producers than run scorers.

Then there is Nick "The Stick" Johnson, the Yankees' new on base machine. He gets on base at a prolific rate and is a quality hitter, but is probably an average run producer at best and doesn't possess blazing speed on the base paths.

Finally, there is Brett Gardner and his right-handed hitting counterpart. Gardner maybe one of the fastest men in baseball but has not yet shown that he can be a consistent major league hitter.

So how best to arrange these pieces? Here is my opening day lineup:

Jeter SS
Johnson DH
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Posada C
Granderson LF
Swisher RF
Cano 2B
Gardner CF

(Note - I put Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF, but that will be another discussion).

Analysis: Jeter did quite well leading off games last year so I see no need to move him back to his traditional number 2 spot in the lineup. He gets on base and still has the speed to steal a base. After Jeter is Johnson, who has one job: get on base for Teixeira and Rodriguez to drive in. He won't be the tough at bat that Damon was last year but he will still be a tough out and will get on base at a higher clip. Texeira and Rodriguez hit next (no explanation needed there). Then it gets interesting. Replacing Hideki Matsui's running producing capabilities in the 5 spot is difficult, but out of the group of hitters to choose from, I think Posada is the best choice. He hits well with runners in scoring position, can drive in runs, and can keep a rally going. After Posada I go with Granderson. His power numbers and low OBP indicate that he has probably been miscast as a leadoff hitter for most of his career and is better suited as a run producer, especially if the hitters in front of him get on base. After Granderson I would hit Swisher. You don't was to hit two lefty low OBP hitters back to back (it's an opposing manager's dream). Hitting Swisher in this spot would allow him to get on base for Cano and would break up the two lefty hitters. Finally, I would round out the lineup with Brett Gardner.

Keep in mind that this is the lineup I would use to start the season. However, if Brett Gardner shows an ability to get on base, he could find his way to the 1 or 2 spot, bumping Jeter and Johnson down.

So what are your thoughts? What is your ideal lineup?

5 comments:

  1. I think the front 4 are set and then I'd switch it up depending on if it's a righty or a lefty pitching. If it's a righty pitching, I think the lineup is set (though I would think about moving Swisher up above Granderson just because Swish is the all-around better hitter).

    Against a lefty, I'd slide Granderson all the way down to 8th or take him out of the lineup totally for a platoon. With his horrible splits against lefties, I worry about putting Granderson so high in the lineup all the time.

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  2. And although I still think they should battle for it, Brian Cashman has said that Curtis Granderson will be the starting CF. So that seems to be that...

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  3. i agree with the lineup set no matter who pitches. Definitely bat Swish behind Curtis for another reason, Granderson can steal and Swisher is a patient hitter. I believe Cano would swing at the first pitch frequently which would take this treat away. Put Gardner in CF Mr. Giradi!

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  4. I was listening to Mike Francesa yesterday and his lineup makes no sense at all.

    Jeter
    Johnson
    Teixeira
    Rodriguez
    Cano
    Posada
    Granderson
    Swisher
    Gardner

    Although Cano was atrocious with RSP and Granderson was mediocre at best, I would still rather have them come up after batters who have a chance to get on base. A batter's ability to get on base is usually a not something that changes year to year, whereas a batter's ability to drive in runners who are on base is far more likely to change.

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  5. The Yankees really suffered last season when they had Cano hitting too high/with RISP. This is one place that I'll agree they'll miss Matsui who was a really good hitter to hit behind A-Rod.

    That being said, I think Posada is a good choice as well. Posada has a career OPS of .903 with RISP, and just as importantly (especially when comparing with Cano), Posada's splits with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs in his career are .413/.468/.676 with 43 sacrifice flies in 404 PAs. All that means that over 57% of the time that Posada comes up with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs, he either gets the runner home or gets on base himself, which is really impressive. According to Baseball-Reference, that runner on 3rd scored 54% of the time over Posada's career including an amazing 77% last season. I don't see why you would move Posada any lower than 5th.

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