Wednesday, September 30, 2009

View from the Seats: Legends Seats

Now THIS is how to see a game. I'll post a review later, but I'm three rows behind home plate after just having stuffed my face with delicious food.

Joba having a tough time in the first inning...but what else is new. I know it only says that he's throwing in the low 90s, but it looks like Joba's throwing a lot faster. He's just had a hard time getting command or gripping the ball.

Will update later with much more


-Andrew

MLB's Best of the Decade: Pitchers

A little while back, we looked at the best hitters of the decade. Now, let's look at the top pitchers in every category, courtesy of Baseball-Reference's Play Index (all averages min 700 innings) :
  • Decisions - Livan Hernandez (252), Javier Vazquez (243), Barry Zito (239), Andy Pettitte (236), Greg Maddux (235)
  • W - Pettitte (148), Randy Johnson (143), Jamie Moyer (140), Roy Hallady (138), Tim Hudson/Roy Oswalt (137)
  • L - Livan (124), Vazquez (115), Jeff Suppan (109), Jeff Weaver (106), Zito (106)
  • SV - Mariano Rivera (397), Trevor Hoffman (362), Jason Isringhausen (284), Billy Wagner (284), Francisco Cordero (250)
  • W-L% - Pedro Martinez (.691), Roger Clemens (.682), Johan Santana (.670), Halladay (.667), Oswalt (.662)
  • Games - David Weathers (712), LaTroy Hawkins (652), Rivera (649), Alan Embree (642), Kyle Farnsworth (626)
  • Starts - Livan (331), Vazquez (326), Suppan (319), Zito (319), Moyer (315)
  • CG - Halladay (46), Livan (36), Big Unit (32), CC Sabathia (28), Curt Schilling (26)
  • SHO - Halladay (13), Big Unit (12), Hudson (11), Sabathia (11), Chris Carpenter/Mark Mulder (10)
  • Games Finished - Rivera (587), Wagner (465), Hoffman (464), Izzy (447), Cordero (425)
  • IP - Livan (2195), Vazquez (2157), Buehrle (2055), Zito (1993.2), Moyer (1980.1)
  • ERA - Rivera (2.09), Pedro (3.00), Johan (3.12), Oswalt (3.23), John Smoltz (3.24)
  • ERA+ - Rivera (214), Pedro (152), Johan (143), Brandon Webb (142), Big Unit (137)
  • SO - Big Unit (2180), Vazquez (1992), Johan (1733), Pedro (1618), Sabathia (1587)
  • BB/9 - Brad Radke (1.36), David Wells (1.40), Maddux (1.43), Schilling (1.47), Jon Lieber (1.50), Josh Towers (1.51)
  • HR/9 - Rivera (0.48), Webb (0.63), Julian Tavarez (0.66), Halladay (0.73), Hudson (0.73), Derek Lowe/Carlos Zambrano (0.73)
  • SO/9 - Big Unit (10.42), Kerry Wood (10.05), Pedro (9.95), Rich Harden (9.35), Scott Kazmir (9.33)
  • H/9 - Rivera (6.92), Wood (7.14), Pedro (7.16), Harden (7.20), Chris Young (7.43)
  • WHIP - Rivera (0.962), Pedro (1.034), Johan (1.113), Big Unit (1.114), Schilling (1.129)
  • K/BB - Schilling (6.01), Rivera (4.88), Pedro (4.64), Big Unit (4.50), Smoltz (4.26), Mike Mussina (4.09)
  • SB% - Krik Reuter (0.27), Carpenter (0.37), Mike Maroth (0.38), Bartolo Colon (0.39), Buehrle (0.41)
  • Pickoffs - Buehrle (66), Pettitte (45), Doug Davis (43), Mark Mulder (36), Brian Anderson (34)
  • GIDP - Buehrle (240), Livan (218), Jon Garland (215), Lowe (214), Suppan (208)
  • BAA - Rivera (.210), Pedro (.216), Wood (.219), Harden (.220), Chris Young (.222), Johan (.225)
  • OBP against - Rivera (.256), Pedro (.273), Johan (.281), Schilling (.284), Big Unit (.288)
  • SLG against - Rivera (.285), Harden (.342), Pedro (.344), Zambrano (.351), Webb (.352)
  • OPS against - Rivera (.541), Pedro (.617), Harden (.647), Santana (.649), Clemens (.659)
  • OPS+ against - Rivera (56), Pedro (65), Webb (73), Clemens (73), Schilling (76)
  • Avg. Game Score - Pedro (61), Santana (60), Big Unit (59), Schilling (58), Clemens (57)
  • Quality Starts - Vazquez (192), Zito (192), Buehrle (189), Big Unit (187), Oswalt (185)
  • Quality Start % - Oswalt (.683), Webb (.672), Johan (.667), Big Unit (.665), Pedro (.659)
  • Pitches/start - Zambrano (106.0), Livan (105.7), Justin Verlander (105.7), Al Leiter (105.6), Jason Schmidt (105.1)
  • Strike % - Schilling (.694), Wells (.686), Rivera (.685), Paul Byrd (.684), Brad Radke (.684)
  • Franchises Played For - Rick White (11), Bruce Chen (10), Dennys Reyes (9), Julian Tavarez (9), Ron Villone (9)
  • 20-win seasons - Schilling (3), Oswalt (2), Halladay (2), Colon (2), Moyer (2), Big Unit (2)
  • 200-K seasons - Johan (5), Vazquez (5), Pedro (5), Big Unit (5), Jake Peavy/Halladay/Wood/Schilling (3)
  • Sub-3.00 ERA (qualified for ERA title) - Johan (4), Peavy (4), Pedro (4), Big Unit (4), Halladay (3)
  • Cy Young Awards - Big Unit (3), Clemens (2), Johan (2), many tied at 1
So who is the best pitcher of the decade? I lowered the innings limit to 700 to get a lot more people involved, but also to show how great Mariano Rivera is compared to his peers. His averages should be higher only pitching one inning, but he was great this past decade. He's my vote but there are some other great candidates.

What about The Big Unit? He won the most Cy Young's this decade and had the second most wins and most Ks this decade. He also had a second place finish in 2004.

Or is it Roger Clemens who ended the decade on a bad note but pitched unbelievably earlier on and pitched in 4 World Series this decade?

Or is it Johan Santana or Pedro Martinez who you saw near the top of almost all the major categories? Pedro finished second in the Cy voting in 2002, third in 2003 and 4th in 2004 and came 5th in the AL MVP voting in 2000. Johan finished 3rd in 2005 and 2008 and had a 5th and 7th places finish.

Or maybe Javier Vazquez (consistency with double digit wins every season) or Andy Pettitte (overall wins) or Curt Schilling (early decade dominance with Red Sox and D-backs) or Roy Halladay (late decade dominance with a Cy and a 3rd, 5th and 2nd place finish) or the forgotten about Roy Oswalt (5 top-5 Cy finishes) or Mark Buerhle (quietly put up a very nice decade)?

I'll put up the choices and you can vote in the poll to the right. When you vote, let us know who you voted for and why in the comments. I'll reveal the answers once the poll is closed

NYaT Readers Pick The Best Hitter of the Decade

I wanted to close out the poll on the right by looking at the results. Thank you to all who voted (and there were quite a few of you this time).

Who Has Been the Best Hitter of the Decade?


Albert Pujols
55%


Ichiro Suzuki
20%


Alex Rodriguez
13%


Manny Ramirez
0%


Other
10%

Albert Pujols wins it in a landslide. I have to agree there. He didn't even play in 2000 but has been raking it at an incomparable level ever since.

It was an oversight at first not to put Derek Jeter on here but I wanted to see how many of you voted "other". Not sure if Jeter is the "other" you were trying to vote for, but, regardless, other came in 4th.

Manny Ramirez got zero love from the fans. I wonder what would have happened to him in this poll had the steroid revelations not come out about him this year.

I also wonder what would have happened to A-Rod had he not got caught up in the Spring Training steroids mess. 13% seems awfully low for him considering how good he was this season.

A lot of you value the base hit and Ichiro got a lot of those and 20% of your vote.

But congrats to Albert Pujols who won the NYaT hitter of the decade. We'll take a look at the pitchers of the decade a little later.

Reminder About the NYaT Survivor League

Come one, come all!

I decided to start a suicide football league on Yahoo! for all the readers of No, You're a Towel. Just go to Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, click on Survival Football (or just follow this link), click on "join a group", and enter the following information

Group ID#: 28269
Password: nyat

The group name is "No You're a Towel". It is a double elimination league so we should have plenty of people in until the end. The winner will get bragging rights on the blog. Good luck!

Trivia Wednesday: 80 Win World Series Winners

A good job by our readers to get our Trivia Tuesday question right about the last three 100-game winners to win the World Series. Now here's the other side: since the Dodgers beat the Yankees in the World series of a strike-shortened 1981 season, 3 teams have won the World Series without winning 90 games. Can you name them?

Answer below in the comments. I'll post the answer tonight.

Since the same amount of 100+ game winners as 80-89 game winners have won the World Series in the past 20 years, this bodes well for the AL Central winner and, maybe (but not likely), the NL Wild Card. That is, if you really believe that those stats mean something (and I don't).

Let's Name The Yankee Bowl

From the AP:
Yankee Stadium will host an annual college football bowl game featuring a Big East versus Big 12 matchup.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Yankees General Partner Hal Steinbrenner are to make the announcement at a Wednesday press conference.

The annual bowl game is expected to draw 40,000 visitors and generate $47 million in economic activity. It will start after next year's college football season.

The yet-to-be-named bowl will be the first in New York City since 1962 and the first in the Northeast since 1981.
Any suggestions for the name of the bowl? Do we take the Yankee tradition and go with no sponsor name such as "Empire Bowl" or "Yankee Bowl" or "Big Apple Bowl" or "Steinbrenner Bowl". Or do we use a New York corporate sponsor like "Citi Bowl" or "Goldman Sachs Bowl" or "Metlife Bowl" or "William Barthman Jeweler Bowl". What do you think the name of the bowl should be? And will people be allowed to sit in the luxury seats (unlike the NYU graduation)? So many questions to be answered.

Put your suggestion for the bowl name down in the comments

"Kyle Farnsworth...It Couldn't Have Happened To a Nicer Guy!"

So started my conversation with my dad after the latest Yankees walk-off. This team continues to come back and walk-off, making them a deadly team at home this season where they have 57 wins. The only team with more than 49 wins at home are the Red Sox.

They now have 50 comeback wins and 15 walk-offs. The Yankees are an insane 51-16 at home since May 15 (via PeteAbe). Not too shabby for a team that looked, at the beginning of the season, like they didn't have any fight in them when they went down to the Red Sox 8 straight.

The best part of tonight for me (besides the fact that they did this against Kyle Farnsworth)? The fact Joe Girardi left in guys like Cervelli and Hinske and Miranda to bat and run in the bottom of the 9th when he had Jorge Posada's bat ready and able on the bench. Cervelli and Hinske will probably both be on the ALDS roster (at least I think so). Cervelli may be called on to bat in an extra inning game and Hinske may need to run the bases.

And Juan Miranda? It was awesome watching Melky run after him before he even touched first or Nick Swisher be the first guy out to the outfield. This team feels like a close-knit group. You hope that when times get tough in October, they'll stick together like this.

And let's hope there's many more pies to come in October.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

NYaT Reader Suicide Football League

Decided to start a suicide football league on Yahoo! for all the readers of No, You're a Towel. Just go to Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, click on Survival Football (or just follow this link), click on "join a group", and enter the following information

Group ID#: 28269
Password: nyat

The group name is "No You're a Towel". It is a double elimination league so we should have plenty of people in until the end. The winner will get bragging rights on the blog. Good luck!

Trivia Tuesday: 100 Win World Series Winners

This stat may not bode well for the Yankees getting to 100 wins. From 1975-1978, every world series winner had 100 or more wins (the Reds twice and then the Yankees twice). Since then only three teams have won the World Series when they reached the century mark for wins. Can you name those three teams?

Post your answer in the comments section below. I'll post the correct answer tonight

Monday, September 28, 2009

The Two 2009 Yankees' Grandslams

How's this for an example of how strange this game can be? The Yankees have hit almost 240 home runs so far this season, but although they came into this game with 190 opportunities with the bases loaded, they only had one grand slam until Robinson Cano hit another tonight. The first? Jose Molina of all people.

Let's look at those two:

Robinson Cano: .203/.241/.313 with runners in scoring position and even worse .231/.233/.269 with the bases loaded. Came into this game with 30 opportunities with the bases loaded, and had only 6 hits and one double.

Jose Molina: Career worst .211/.287/.258 this season. Only two players in all of baseball with as many plate appearances have a worse OPS than Molina. And he has 2 opportunities with the bases loaded...and one grand slam.

That means zero grand slams for A-Rod, Mark Teixiera, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher or Johnny Damon...but one for one of the worst hitters in the game and one of the worst with RISP have hit grannies.

Go figure!

Sunday, September 27, 2009

A Memory and a Wish

I will always remember where I was when I broke my first Yom Kippur fast: Yankee Stadium for Game 2 of the American League Division Series. Right before game time my dad and I pulled out our bagels, broke the fast, and then proceeded to watch an EPIC playoff game, featuring Don Mattingly going deep (shaking the entire stadium) and Jim Leyritz sending the walk-off home run into the October night.

To all my fellow Tribesmen (and women), I wish you a very easy fast and good playoff memories in the new year.


-Andrew

Giants Injury Update

From The Blue Screen:
Both WR Domenik Hixon (knee) and CB Kevin Dockery (hamstring) made the trip to Tampa, but are inactive. Six other players had previously been declared out: DT Chris Canty (calf), CB Aaron Ross (hamstring), LB Clint Sintim (groin), WR Hakeem Nicks (foot), RB Danny Ware (elbow) and Adam Koets (ankle). None of them made the trip.
Because a team can only have 8 players inactive, the Giants dressed Justin Tuck although he is not expected to play. This means the Giants are missing starters Dockery, Tuck, Ross, Phillips, and Canty from their defense. That "depth" talked about so much in the preseason is being tested today once again.

Update 2:01: Ok...so Justin Tuck is playing. Didn't think that would happen but it shows Tuck's toughness. This defense is playing well so far, causing nightmares for Byron Leftwich

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Running Through the Links This Morning

For some reason I'm up early on a Saturday morning so it's time to run through the links. Here's where the sports world and the real world meet (sort of like that Plaxico picture on the right). And I'll shy away from Yankees links for a little bit. Enjoy!

BaseballFootball
  • After making one of the craziest plays ever (the INT off Jason Whitten's shoe), Kenny Phillips is going to be lost for the season and is quite disappointed about it (as is his GM).
  • Matt Mosely points out this could be even worse than a one-year injury for Phillips. Which is really disappointing as Mosely points out Phillips was developing into one of the best safeties in the game.
  • While it seems like Rex Ryan and the Jets are making every great PR move (and the handing over of the game ball to the Jets biggest fan is one of the very best), one blogger thinks that he's just lining them up as the team everyone hates...and I think his biggest premise is because Ryan is fat. I lose him pretty early on.
  • SportsByBrooks has a recap of Plaxico Burress' first night in jail and his rude welcome. Sucks to be Plax.
Basketball
Tennis
  • Melanie Oudin may have been a bit distracted in the US Open by the details of he parent's divorce.
The World

Friday, September 25, 2009

Options for Sports Tickets

The financial world and the sports world continue to converge. You can now buy options for sporting events. From CNBC's Darren Rovell:












It's sort of an ingenious idea. Fans know that if they want to go a sporting event, they're going to have to buy it before it hits the secondary market (StubHub, Ebay, etc.) or else they're going to have to pay a hefty premium. But many don't want to buy tickets months in advance if they don't know what their schedule will look like by the time the event comes up. So they can pay a smaller premium and have the flexibility to decide. It also gives the opportunity for scalpers to take advantage of this as well depending on how important games are later on in the season. Overall, I think this is a good thing but I'm interested to see how it plays out.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Possible Injury Concern For Yanks With An IPK Return

Although not on the Giants level, this is potentially pretty bad news for the Yankees. From Peter Abraham:

Jerry Hairston Jr. “felt a pop” in his left wrist while taking a practice swing in the seventh inning. That’s why he came out of the game.

Hairston said he felt a sharp pain. He has been been having wrist issues on and off since diving for a ball while playing for Cincinnati earlier this season. He disclosed that he had an MRI about 10 days ago and then received a cortisone shot to try and calm some inflammation.

“I’m just hoping it’s some scar tissue breaking up,” he said.

Hairston will have another MRI tomorrow. We should hear more then.

This is not as devastating as the Phillips news, but this could be bad for the Yankees. Hairston has been a very useful player for the Yankees. He may be only batting .235 for the Yankees, but he does have a .346 OBP which is higher than Melky Cabrera's and Hairston plays every infield and outfield position.

Luckily for the Yankees, Ramiro Pena is a ready and capable replacement. And with Brett Gardner back healthy, either he or Cabrera will be much better defensive replacements/pitch runners than Hairston.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, they would have been much more versatile had they had both players on the playoff roster (especially since Hairston is a much better outfielder than Hairston). Let's just hope this injury is not serious and they both will be part of the Yankees playoff run.

But one good note from the Yankees yesterday: Ian Patrick Kennedy (also known as IPK) came back from surgery to fix an aneursym and played the Phil Hughes role in the 8th inning of relief. Since Joba, IPK and Hughes all came up together as a trio of starters, it is fitting that each one has now had his shot pitching the 8th inning for the Yankees. Does the "IPK: starter or reliever" debate start today?

Regardless, it was good to see Kennedy back and pitching. As New York Magazine correctly stated, we didn't think we'd see the headline of "Ian Kennedy Pitches As Yanks Win a Series in Anaheim" anytime this season. So congrats to him on making it all the way back.

How to add your favorite team's schedule to your Google Calendar

I've always said that if Google and Apple could somehow join forces, they would solve all of the world's problems. And they would be called Goople, which is just plain funny.

Okay, maybe all of that is exaggeration, but these two companies really do find the most clever ways to solve life's little problems...and some of the bigger ones as well. Everything they do is designed to enhance and innovate. Each product is simply a better version of the competition's product.

Anyway, Google's latest innovation is a solution to one of the little problems. It allows you to add your favorite sports team's schedule to your Google Calendar. (Sure beats simultaneously checking yankees.com to compare your schedule with that of the team.) Simply open your calendar, find the buttons in the top right corner, click on "New: Sports Calendars," select the "Sports" tab, and click through the various sports and leagues to find your favorite teams.

Pretty cool, if you ask me.

Potentially Devastating News For Giants

From ProFootballTalk:
A league source that the New York Giants are planning for the possibility that safety Kenny Phillips will be lost for the balance of the season.

Per a separate source, no final decisions have been made as to whether Phillips will undergo a procedure aimed at correcting a cartilage problem in the knee. If the surgery occurs, Phillips is expected to be placed on injured reserve.

Phillips has been in and out due to the injury, missing practice (like he did on Wednesday) but playing in games (like he did on Sunday against the Cowboys).

A first-round pick in 2008, Phillips has started both games of the 2009 season. He has 13 tackles and two interceptions.
Let's hope that this not the case. Phillips has been a big part of their secondary and losing him would be pretty devastating.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

What To Do With Alfredo Aceves and Brian Bruney?

The past two games saw the Yankees bring in Brian Bruney and Alfredo Aceves out of the bullpen. Those two appearances were not confidence-inspiring as both players looked like shells of their former selves. So what happened with these two? They may both be injured and hiding injuries knowing that when they recover, they may not have a job. They may both have been flukes and have settled into their normal play. Or maybe it's something else.

Let's first look at Alfredo Aceves. "Ace" pitched 30 innings last season and finished with a 2.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.167. Inexplicably, the Yankees left him off the opening day roster and let him toil in the minors until the beginning of May. Then, in his first appearance of the season on May 4th against Boston, they threw him for 70 pitches in a relief appearance. From there the Yankees used him in almost ever role: long reliever, middle relief, righty specialist, set-up man, mop-up man, even closer for a game. Since his first outing he had compiled a 1.77 ERA in 20 games, giving up less than a baserunner an inning in 35.2 innings and holding opponents to a .589 OPS against.

And then, on July 9th, they decided to give him a spot start against Minnesota. He wouldn't pitch again until July 18th and since hasn't been the same pitcher. Since they made him a starter for a day, his ERA has ballooned to 5.89 in 36.2 innings with opponents posting a .713 OPS against.

For the season Ace is 10-1 with a 3.87 ERA, 1.070 WHIP with 1 blown save, 1 save, and 5 holds. Clearly, he has not been the same pitcher since his spot start. He had complained of arm troubles and may be trying to hide that from the Yankees. Remember, Aceves is a Mexican League find, one year removed from not even being a Major Leaguer, one year removed from having all kinds of things thrown at him while he was on the field. He knows this could be his one shot and may be trying to pitch through pain to keep a spot on the Yankees.

But maybe the problem is that the Yankees have used him in so many different ways. Below are the charts from Baseball-Reference detailing his days of rest between pitching and the situations in which he's been used.

Days of Rest

0 1 2 3 4 5 7
7 3 11 6 3 5 1

Inning/Score Appearance Matrix

Inn <-4 -4 -3 -2 -1 tie 1 2 3 4 >4 Total
4-


1 1 2 1 2


7
5
2
1 1 1

2

7
6 1 1
1 3

3 1

10
7

1 1
1



1 4
8



1
1 2


4
9 1

1
1



1 4
10+




3




3
Total 2 3 1 5 6 8 2 7 3 0 2 39

As you can see, there's no consistency. Was Watching talks about the spot start that ruined Alfredo Aceves. Peter Abraham talks about how Aceves is working through injuries. Mark Feinsand points out that Aceves disappeared for more than a week in the Yankees bullpen before last night and tries to page him. Maybe the key for Aceves is being given a role (I think that 6th or 7th inning righty out of the 'pen would good for him) and they need to stick with it.

Brian Bruney faces no such troubles. Besides two appearances early in blowouts, he's made all of his bullpen trots in the 7th inning or later. Bruney got hit hard in his first appearance but then settled down after that to be the Yankees most reliable set-up man in April. After that first start, he compiled a 1.17 ERA in 8 games, striking out 12 in 7.2 innings while walking no one and allowing only 2 hits through April 21st. Opponents had a .080/.080/.120 line against him.

Then he went on the disabled list for more than a month, came back, made one appearance, and went back on the DL for almost another month. Yankees fans were pretty sure the reason they couldn't beat Boston early on was that Bruney wasn't in their 'pen.

That really wasn't the case. Whether it was reverting back to his norms or the fact he may still be trying to pitch through injury, Bruney has not been the same pitcher since. In 31 games since coming back, he's pitched in 31 games to a 4.85 ERA, given up 32 hits in 26 innings, walking 20 and only striking out 19. His opponents have a .302/.414/.528 line against him. And that was with a 0.87 ERA in August!

Bruney has fallen far from the most reliable reliever in the bullpen. River Avenue Blues thinks that there's little chance Bruney makes the postseason roster, especially if the team only carries 10 pitchers. I don't disagree with that either; at this point, I don't think you can rely on Brian Bruney in any big spot (although sometimes Girardi seems to think to the contrary).

Why Last Night Mattered For The Yankees

In the 8th inning of last night's game vs. the Angels, the Yankees clinched a playoff spot. At the same time, they also lost a lead to the Angels in their home park where the Yankees never seem to win. So it would seem natural for the team to just pack it in and realize that it wasn't their night.

But the Phil Hughes overcame shotty defense behind him and kept the game tied, the Yankees grabbed the lead in the 9th behind Brett Gardner's wheels, Johnny Damon's bunt, and A-Rod's sac fly, and then Mariano Rivera came in to seal it up in the bottom of the 9th. So why was that important?

First, the Yankees got the [Rally] Monkey off their backs. They had very little success in Anaheim up until that point a desperately needed a win, much like their win against the Red Sox when they tattooed John Smoltz helped them get off the snide. The Angels are one of their toughest opponents and any win against them is big.

But also, the win gave the Yankees some more breathing room in the AL East and the race against the Angels for best record. Just because the Yankees won there last night (despite blowing the lead) does not mean they want to play a majority of their ALCS games there if that opportunity arises. They also decreased their magic number in the AL East to 6 which makes the upcoming weekend series against the Red Sox a little less of a sweat-fest.

Book the Yankees ticket to the playoffs, they're back. And it's nice to have a win to back that up.

Other thoughts:
  • A-Rod looks really comfortable in Anaheim. Maybe it's just having Scott Boras in the front row watching him. But A-Rod needs to carry this momentum over into the playoffs, especially if they may face the Angels again.
  • The 9th inning proves the difference between Brett Gardner in the lineup and Melky Cabrera. Not only is Gardner a superior defensive player, but his speed was the catalyst for that 9th inning rally. I think GGBG has to be your starter in the playoffs, especially against righties.
  • Something is not right with Alfredo Aceves. I'll go into this more later, but they need to figure out if they can get him right by the playoffs or maybe go with someone else in his spot if he's not going to be healthy.
  • Good job by Phil Hughes wiggling out of trouble after some terrible defense behind him
  • Remember when people were worried of Jorge Posada could throw again? Remember when people were worried that Mariano Rivera couldn't strike people out anymore? I think the strike-'em-out, throw-'em-out double play in the bottom of the 9th proved those both aren't true.
  • Hideki Matsui will be sorely missed next year. He's been tremendous for them.
  • I hate the bunt, but it worked out for the Yankees in the 9th inning. I still hate the bunt, though. Johnny Damon is a good enough hitter and Brett Gardner has enough speed that if you swing away, I think you get Gardner to third anyways...
  • Chad Gaudin looked great and then the wheels fell off. I feel like that is a common theme for him in starts. If they Yankees are going to start him in the playoffs, they need to make sure the bullpen is rolling at the first sign of trouble.
  • I was glad to see, as Peter Abraham wrote, that the Yankees didn't celebrate getting back into the postseason. I truly don't think they should celebrate anything until they win a playoff series. This team is built for a lot more than just making the playoffs or just winning the division.
  • 3:35 game today. A Yankees win would just about seal up the division and the home-field advantage. I know there's still baseball yet to be played, but I can't see the Yankees faltering that much if they can win behind the great enigma, A.J. Burnett, today.

Predicting the Cys

Although anything could happen, I think the MVPs are going to Joe Mauer (Joel Sherman seems to agree) and Albert Pujols. The Cy Young award? That's still very much up for debate. ESPN uses the Cy Young Predictor from The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers to predict the Cy Young Award winners for 2009. Here's what they came up with:

American League:
  1. Zack Greinke
  2. Felix Hernandez
  3. CC Sabathia
  4. Mariano Rivera
  5. Joe Nathan
  6. Justin Verlander
  7. Roy Halladay
  8. Jered Weaver
  9. Scott Feldman
  10. Jonathan Papelbon
National League:
  1. Adam Wainright
  2. Chris Carpenter
  3. Jonathan Broxton
  4. Tim Lincecum
  5. Heath Bell
  6. Ryan Franklin
  7. Josh Johnson
  8. Dan Haren
  9. Brian Wilson
  10. Javier Vazquez
My thoughts? The formula gives too much wait to a team's success (represented here by VB or Victor Bonus) and a little too much weight on closers. Is Jonathan Broxton really better than Tim Lincecum? Are Heath Bell and Ryan Franklin better than Josh Johnson and Dan Haren? Because a team does well does that matter to the Cy Young as much as it matters to the MVP award? We're already counting wins as a plus into the equation, do we also have to count in team success?

I think they predicted the winners well, though. I'd too go with Greinke and Wainwright at this point. I thought that Lincecum would run away with it, and although he does have 50 more Ks than Wainwright, I don't think he's better at this point. I also think that Chris Carpenter loses points for the time he's missed; right now Wainwright is the only starter on here who has made 32 starts or won more than 16 games. The one problem for Wainwright? Carpenter may split some of the vote with him in the Midwest. That could allow someone like Lincecum to sneak in and win it.

In the AL, I think it will come down to Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez. Both have much better strikeout numbers and ERAs than CC Sabathia, who I believe is being overweighted (no pun intended) because of his team's success. Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan are both having phenomenal closer seasons, but with three great pitchers above them, I don't think they'll sniff the top.

So there you have it. Who do you think will win? Do you think the closers get a fair shake? Do you think team success should play a factor? Feel free to weigh in.

A Look Back At MLB Predictions

Back in April I did my Major League Baseball predictions. Some worked out. Some did not. There's still some games to play, but I think it's time to see how the predictions fared Let's take a look at all of them:

AL East:

My standings:

1) Red Sox
2) Yankees (Wild Card)
3) Rays
4) Blue Jays
5) Orioles

Current standings:

1) Yankees
2) Red Sox 6 GB (Wild Card)
3) Rays 18.5 GB
4) Blue Jays 27.5 GB
5) Orioles 35.5 GB

Ke
y Comment: "Too often we pick Cinderella teams in baseball to repeat their success the next year. The glass slipper doesn't always fit twice. If you look at some teams that have gone to the World Series in recent years with so-so bullpens (or, rather, bullpens that have greatly overachieved)--Cards, Tigers, Astros, ChiSox, etc.--they have not been able to duplicate their success the next year."

How Did I Do? Well besides my reverse jinx, really well. I think that, barring a collapse in their last 10 games, the Yankees and Red Sox will flip-flop. But the Rays were really last year's Cinderella without the bullpen to back it up this year and the Yankees and Red Sox were the class of the league. Good start

AL Central:

My standings:

1) Tigers
2) Indians
3) White Sox
4) Twins
5) Royals

Current standings
:

1) Tigers
2) Twins 2.5 GB
3) White Sox 8 GB
4) Royals 17.5 GB
5) Indians 19 GB

Ke
y Comment: "There are a few truly awful divisions in baseball and this is probably the worst. 86 wins should be enough to take this division. And I do believe any team could win it...in a division of teams with problems, Detroit seems to have the least."

How Did I Do? The Tigers are in first and the White Sox are in third, so I did well there. I bit a little on the Indians hype and I downplayed the impact of the M&M boys in Minnesota. If the Tigers hold of the Twins, I'll be OK with my picks. It may be 88 wins that win this division, so I don't think I was so off talking about how bad this division is. The Tigers may win this division and they have a negative run differential.

AL West:

My standings:

1) Angels
2) A's
3) Rangers
4) Mariners

Current standings
:

1) Angels
2) Rangers 7.5 GB
3) Mariners 11 GB
4) A's 18 GB

Ke
y Comment: "But somehow [the Angels] seem to have the best team. They also have the best manager. I'm not saying they'll run away with it, but they seem like the best team on paper."

How Did I Do? That comment seemed to hit it right on the head. They lost Mark Teixeira and K-Rod and still are going to win the division. It wasn't as easy this year (the Mariners and Rangers gave them a run for their money), but they seem like a lock at this point and have found the pieces to win. I also overbought the hype on the A's, didn't believe enough in the Rangers pitching (they did have Vincente Padilla and Kris Benson going 2-3 in the rotation to start the season, so I think I get a pass there), and I think that the Mariners lack of offense killed them in the end. So overall, not bad in the AL

NL East:

My standings:

1) Phillies
2) Mets (Wild Card)
3) Braves
4) Marlins
5) Nats

Current standings
:

1) Phillies
2) Braves 7.5 GB
3) Marlins 8 GB
4) Mets 24 GB
5) Nats 37 GB

Ke
y Comment: "[The Phillies] made a bad move by going out and getting Ibanez, a guy who didn't seem to fit into their lineup (and who they could have waited to sign and got for a lot less). Their starting pitching is shaky: Hamels is already dealing with injuries, Myers has gopherball syndrome, Moyer is close to 50, and Blanton and Park are average at best. But the bullpen is just as good and this lineup can mash (it's the best in the NL)."

How Did I Do? I'm a big boy; I'll admit when I'm wrong. The Phillies could have got Ibanez for a lot less, but he was worth every penny in the first half, helping them vault out to their big lead. Their starting pitching was shaky so they went out and got Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez (as well as J.A. Happ. Those three added to Blanton and Hamels makes for a formidable rotation. And the real concern for them is the closer (though I was right about the team mashing). The Mets fell apart and the Braves and Marlins were middle of the pack, but have been steady so this one is pretty good overall.

NL Central:

My standings:

1) Cubs
2) Cardinals
3) Reds
4) Astros
5) Brewers
6) Pirates

Current standings
:

1) Cardinals
2) Cubs 10 GB
3) Brewers 14.5 GB
4) Reds 18.5 GB
5) Astros 18.5 GB
6) Pirates 31.5 GB

Ke
y Comment: "[For the Cubs], Gregg may not be the answer at closer, Bradley never plays a full season, Fukudome looks like a potential bust, and the loss of DeRosa will hurt...[For the Cards], Carpenter looks like he's back, Wainright has developed into a very good pitcher and they have Sir Albert in the middle of any lineup...[For the Pirates], they will having a losing record for the 17th consecutive season and that's a major league record"

How Did I Do? The Cubs and Cardinals flip-flopped, but otherwise, pretty well. The Reds weren't as good as I thought they'd be and the Brewers were a bit better, but overall, I did well in this division. The Cardinals are the run-away favorites and just need to hit that magic number (2) and clinch at this point.


NL Central:

My standings:

1) Dodgers
2) Diamondbacks
3) Giants
4) Rockies
5) Padres

Current standings
:

1) Dodgers
2) Rockies 5 GB (Wild Card)
3) Giants 10 GB
4) Padres 22.5 GB
5) Diamondbacks 25.5 GB

Ke
y Comment: "The Giants were tempting to pick in the top 2. They have a really, really good rotation. They just have no hitting...The Dodgers seem to me to be the most complete team. They have hitting, starting pitching and bullpen. They will miss Derek Lowe and they may have to get a starter at the deadline, though Kuroda/Billingsley/Kershaw should be a good 1/2/3"

How Did I Do? I never saw the Rockies coming. But overall, not bad. The Dodgers are in first place and seem like they have the division won. The Giants were really good but couldn't compete because they didn't hit. The Padres were as bad as advertised. I just flip-flopped the Diamondbacks and the Rockies. The Rockies developed their young players and got great starting pitching while the D-backs did not. The Rockies still need to finish strong, though. The Braves and Giants are 5 back and the Marlins are 5.5. But with a Magic Number at 7 and only 11 left to play, it should happen for the Rockies.

My MVP Predictions: MannyBeingManny and Miguel Cabrera.
The Reality: Manny was the MVP...until he got suspended. Now Albert Pujols is going to run away with that honor. Cabrera would have won the MVP in a lesser year, so I'm not unhappy with that pick. I just think it's going to another AL Central player (Joe Mauer) now.

My Cy Young Predictions: Johan Santana and CC Sabathia.
The Reality: Santana was great and then stunk and then got injured and then didn't pitch again. He was 7-2 with a 1.77 ERA and 86 Ks in 55 innings through the end of May, so he was the early front-runner. CC is making a late push for the Cy in the AL, and, like Cabrera, he would have won in lesser years...but this year I think Zack Grienke and Felix Hernandez will be too much for him to overcome.

My Playoff Predictions:
I'll take the Yanks/Sox and Phillies/Cubs in the league championship series
The Reality: We'll see...

Best Record Guarantees Nothing

After last night's Yankees win, they are now guaranteed a playoff spot, 6 games up on the Red Sox for the best record in the AL East (and home-field advantage in the first round), 5.5 games up on the Angels for the best record in the American League (and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs), and 4.5 up on the Dodgers for best record in baseball. While the best record in baseball is nice, it guarantees you nothing. You get no more home-field advantage or bragging rights. And as the great Flip Flop Fly Ball shows, it doesn't even give you all that much better odds for a World Series title (I've been told on some browsers the graphic is being cut off, just click on the graphic below to be able to see the whole chart) :


What having the best record in the AL does do however is limit the amount of games the Yankees have to play on the road in the playoffs. Although the Yankees are 44-33 on the road, they have struggled in places like Anaheim and Boston in the recent past. They are also play very well at home with a tie for the major league with 52 wins in the New Yankee Stadium.

I think what that graphic above does show is that once October starts, any team, no matter how they did in the regular season vis-a-vis the other playoffs teams, can win the World Series. That's why, as a Yankees fan, it's great to be back in October, where anything can (and will) happen.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

A Story That Needs To Be Retold

This is hysterical. From Peter Abraham:

Mickey [Mantle] took Billy Martin hunting one day in Oklahoma and told him to wait in the car while he went and asked a friend of his who was a farmer for permission to hunt on his land.

The farmer agreed, but asked Mickey for a favor. He had an old cow that needed putting down and asked Mickey to do it for him because he didn’t have the heart to. So Mickey decided to play a trick on Billy.

Mickey came back to the car, pretended he was mad and got his rifle. “That son of a gun won’t let us hunt,” he said. “I’m going to shoot his cow.”

So Mantle when into the barn with Billy trailing behind. Bang! He shot the cow dead.

Suddenly he heard two more shots. Bang! Bang!

He turned around and there was Billy with a smoking rifle. “I got two of his horses, Mick,” he said. “That’ll show him.”

We'll probably never know if it's true...but if it is, wow. Just hilarious.

Funny [Or Die] Political Video

Switching away from sports for a few minutes, figured I'd post this video. I'm not taking a stand on either side of the issue, but this is pretty funny. It features Will Ferrell, Jon Hamm of "Mad Men," Olivia Wilde of "House," Thomas Lennon of "Reno 911," Robert Ben Garant of "Reno 911," Masi Oka of "Heroes," Jordana Spiro of "My Boys," Linda Cardellini of "ER," and Donald Faison of "Scrubs." Take a look.

Trivia Tuesday: Mariano Rivera Edition

On Friday night, Ichiro Suzuki joined a very select group of players to hit a regular season walk-off home run off Mariano Rivera. Four others had done so before that. Can you name those four players to walk-off against Mo in the regular season (and bonus points for the year the home runs occurred)?

Put your answer in the comments below. I will post the correct answer tonight. Good luck!

(Side note: Going through Baseball-Reference, I learned that Mariano Rivera has never walked in the winning run in the regular season. And he only has 15 walk-off hits against him in total)

Answers:

2002
Car# Yr# G# Date Tm Opp Batter Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit R Play Desc.
+-----+----+---+-------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----------------------+
1 1 1 2002-07-14 NYY @CLE Bill Selby ahead 7-6 b 9 123 2 2-2 6 4 *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Vizquel Scores; Burks Scores; Thome Scores

2004
Car# Yr# G# Date Tm Opp Batter Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit R Play Desc.
+-----+----+---+-------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----------------------+
2 1 1 2004-07-24 NYY @BOS Bill Mueller ahead 10-9 b 9 1-- 1 3-1 5 2 *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball); McCarty Scores

2006
Car# Yr# G# Date Tm Opp Batter Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit R Play Desc.
+-----+----+---+-------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----------------------+
3 1 1 2006-07-20 NYY @TOR Vernon Wells tied 4-4 b11 --- 1 1-0 2 1 *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to LF-CF)

2007
Car# Yr# G# Date Tm Opp Batter Score Inn RoB Out Cnt Pit R Play Desc.
+-----+----+---+-------------+---+----+-----------------+-----------+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----------------------+
4 1 1 2007-04-15 NYY @OAK Marco Scutaro ahead 4-2 b 9 12- 2 0-2 3 3 *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF Line); Walker Scores; Kendall Scores

Some More Views From Jerry Jones Stadium

One of Paul's friends, Mark, went down to the New Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas for their home opener against the Giants. I figured it was worth posting a few more views from inside Jerry Jones' project. Pretty impressive, I have to say. I'm curious to see how the new Giants Stadium matches up, also known as "Keeping Up With The Jerry Joneses". For now, let's take a look inside Dallas' new stadium (click on the pictures to see a larger view):

Monday, September 21, 2009

Has Herschel Walker entered "The Tyson Zone"?

A couple of years ago, ESPN's Bill Simmons introduced a theory he called "The Tyson Zone." According to Simmons, an athlete or other celebrity enters the Tyson Zone when any news story about that person -- no matter how ludicrous or unbelievable -- can immediately be accepted as true. The key is that the famous person has such a long history of bizarre behavior that nothing the person can do will stun the public.

Obviously, the Tyson Zone is so named because Mike Tyson was arguably the first superstar to become an actual psychopath.

Countless other celebrities have entered the Tyson Zone. Dennis Rodman is a given. Ditto with the late Michael Jackson, Gary Busey, and...the most recent inductee....Kanye West.

But I think we may have to add a new member: former NFL running back Herschel Walker. Just to reinforce my argument in favor of his admission, let's do the rundown:

  1. Walker won the Heisman Trophy at Georgia, was named the 3rd-best college football player of all time, and went on to play for the Cowboys, Vikings, Eagles, Giants, and the New Jersey Generals of the USFL.
  2. Walker is a Born Again Christian who has appeared on the televangelist program "Hour of Power."
  3. Walker finished 7th in the bobsled at the 1992 Winter Olympics (!)
  4. Walker appeared on Celebrity Apprentice but was fired for failing as Project Manager on a task to create a new meal for Schwan's LiveSmart frozen food line....despite the fact that he owns a food service company.
  5. Walker is a 5th-degree black belt in Tae Kwon Do who also has Multiple Personality Disorder.....dangerous combination, if you ask me (I may have broken that guy's sternum, but I don't remember doing it!").
  6. And, most recently, Walker signed a multi-fight contract with Strikeforce and will soon start competing in MMA at the age of 47.
So tell me, readers, how has Herschel Walker not entered the Tyson Zone?? The guy is a bobsledding black belt Born Again who cannot remember winning the Heisman Trophy.

Admit it. If you heard tomorrow that he impregnated Chelsea Clinton, you would believe it.

MLB's Best of the Decade: Hitters

As the last few weeks of regular season come to a close, it's time to look back at who were the best players of the decade. There's still a little time to gain in these categories with a few weeks to play. Here they are courtesy of Baseball-Reference's Play Index:
  • Games - Miguel Tejada (1,568), Bobby Abreu (1,563), Orlando Cabrera (1,519), A-Rod (1,514), Carlos Lee (1,501), Derek Jeter (1,490)
  • PA - Abreu (6,887), Derek Jeter (6,881), Tejada (6,773), Johnny Damon (6,732), A-Rod (6,731)
  • Runs - A-Rod (1,182), Damon (1,113), Jeter (1085), Albert Pujols (1066), Abreu (1054)
  • Hits - Ichiro Suzuki (2,015), Jeter (1,925), Miguel Tejada (1,836), Vlad Guerrero (1,741), Damon (1,740)
  • 2B - Todd Helton (428), Abreu (406), Pujols (382), O. Cabrera (367), Mike Lowell (366)
  • 3B - Jimmy Rollins (94), Carl Crawford (92), Christian Guzman (82), Juan Pierre (77)
  • HR - A-Rod (430), Jim Thome (368), Pujols (366), Manny Ramirez (348), Carlos Delgado (324)
  • RBI - A-Rod (1,228), Pujols (1,105), Manny (1,102), Delgado (1,045), Tejada (1,036)
  • BB - Barry Bonds (1,128), Abreu (1,034), Helton (993), Thome (973), Lance Berkman (960)
  • SO - Thome (1,429), Adam Dunn (1,421), Mike Cameron (1,411), Pat Burrell (1,385), A-Rod (1,235)
  • SB - Pierre (456), Crawford (361), Ichiro (340), Rollins (324), Reyes (301)
  • CS - Pierre (155), Luis Castillo (108), Chone Figgins (95) , Abreu (90), Scott Podsednik (84)
  • HBP - Jason Kendall (155), Jason Giambi (138), David Eckstein (134), Craig Biggio (132), Delgado/A-Rod (126)
  • BA (min. 1000 games played for all average categories) - Pujols (.334), Ichiro (.333), Helton (.330), Vlad (.324), Manny (.318), Jeter (.316)
  • OBP - Helton (.436), Pujols (.427), Manny (.419), Giambi (.418), Chipper Jones (.414)
  • SLG - Pujols (.630), Manny (.602), A-Rod (.585), Vlad (.570), Helton (.569)
  • OPS - Pujols (1.057), Manny (1.021), Helton (1.005), A-Rod (.986), Berkman (.972)
  • OPS+ - Pujols (172), Manny (160), A-Rod (154), Giambi (152), Berkman (148)
  • ISO - Pujols (.296), Thome (.292), Manny (.284), A-Rod (.282), Dunn (.272)
  • Runs Created - A-Rod (1,380), Helton (1,356), Pujols (1,356), Manny (1,246), Berkman (1,232)
  • GIDP - Tejada (223), Paul Konerko (193), Vlad (191), Pujols (178), Magglio Ordonez (172)
  • Franchises Played For - Rick White (11), Paul Bako (10), Bruce Chen (10), many tied at 9
  • 25-homer seasons - A-Rod (10), Pujols (9), Vlad (9), many tied at 8
  • 100-RBI seasons - Pujols (9), A-Rod (9), Manny (8), Carlos Beltran (7), Abreu (7), Vlad (7), Delgado (7)
  • 200-hit seasons - Ichiro (9), Michael Young (5), Pierre (4), Jeter (4), Tejada (3), Vlad (3)
A few observations:
  1. The big race is for the decade's batting title. Pujols is at 0.33379 and Ichiro is at 0.33295. I think Albert has it, but I won't count out Ichiro until it's all over
  2. Barry Bonds hasn't played in a few years but still has walked more than anyone
  3. Albert Pujols was a rookie in 2001, so he missed out on a year there (plus any development he underwent as the years went on). He still will probably end up being second in home runs and at or near the top of most of these lists. Amazing.
  4. Ichiro was also a rookie in 2001. So that hit total is missing a year of the decade. He and Pujols have to be the two greatest hitting rookies to come out the same year, right?
  5. Miguel Tejada and Bobby Abreu were both very durable and very good. I don't think this equates to the Hall of Fame, however. It is not a place for compilers. But each one should get a nice contract this off-season, one would think.
  6. A-Rod has been so consistent, but so has Manny. If he didn't have an off year in 2007 for Boston, or get suspended this season, or sit out all of those games pouting, Manny might have run away with this. It makes you actually appreciate A-Rod a little more because despite all his troubles, he always put on the uniform and played, minus the hip injury this season. And even if you look at Manny's season vs. A-Rod's season with the time they both missed, I think you maybe go with A-Rod as having a better season overall.
  7. I was surprised to see Lance Berkman make it up there on some of those lists. I think it just shows he's more underrated than he should be. And he was a rookie in 2000 and missed a big chunk of this year and 2005. His numbers could be better
Ok...who is your hitter of the decade? Is it A-Rod, Pujols, Manny, Ichiro or someone else? I've put the poll over to the right so make sure to vote!

Yankees Playoff Rotation Conundrum

If the Yankees end up holding off the Red Sox and the Angels to win the AL East and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (respectively), they will have a choice to make: do they want to go with a three- or four-man rotation for the first round. Now it's not guaranteed they'll get to make that choice anymore. As The Big Lead points out, the AL East isn't sewn up just yet with the Red Sox five back and the Yankees having 3 games against the Angels and 3 against the Red Sox left (while the Red Sox get 4 against the Royals). Ken Davidoff points out the Yankees can make it really easy for themselves by playing well against the Angels and Red Sox or they can make it a lot more interesting: "If the Sawx can enter the weekend trailing the Yankees by three or fewer games in the loss column, then they can control their own destiny..if the Yankees and Red Sox finish with the same record, AND if Boston beats the Yankees at least once next weekend, then the Red Sox win a seeding tiebreaker based on the head-to-head series this year."

But let's say that doesn't happen (and even if it does, the Yankees are still making the playoffs, just as the Wild Card). Let's pretend that everything stays as is and the Yankees win the AL East and finish with the best record, which series do they choose and who do they pitch? Let's look at the pros and cons of the two options (with all due respect to Rob Neyer, taking Phil Hughes out of the bullpen and making him a starter at this point, is not one of the options...at all):

3-man rotation:
Pros:
  • Joba doesn't have to start. Tyler Kepner calls him a riddle. Peter Abraham points out that he's 0-4 with an 8.42 ERA in his last eight starts and opponents have hit .331 against him, and, maybe even worse, he's overconfident, refusing to acknowledge he's doing anything wrong. Jon Heyman thought that pitching coach Dave Eiland had found something in Joba's delivery, but maybe there still needs to be fixing. Peter Gammons wrote that the Joba rules have been all about preserving Chamberlain, but at this point, it can't be denied that they're hurting him.
  • Joba could slide into the 'pen. Sliding Into Home caught a Jon Heyman tweet which suggested just that. Imagine Joba for the 7th, Hughes for the 8th and Rivera for the 9th in the playoffs. That could be pretty deadly. I'm not sure if they would do it given his recent struggles and the need to stretch him out, but the Yankees could move Joba Chamberlain into the bullpen for the first round and it would shorten games a great deal.
  • This would also mean one less bullpen arm would be needed so you could go with another bench player. Freddy Guzman or Ramiro Pena or Francisco Cervelli or Shelly Duncan would be a nice way to fill out the rest of the bench.
Cons:
  • You're relying a lot on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte. Sabathia has a postseason ERA of 7.92. Burnett has been wildly inconsistent. Pettitte has a sore arm and pitched horribly last season with arm troubles. Are you really confident in CC and A.J. for two games and Pettitte for one in a 5 game series? If Sabathia loses game 1, it could be over in a hurry.
  • As Ken Rosenthal points out, the Yankees already don't know whether to start Pettitte or Burnett in Game 2...but if you start them in Game 2, you HAVE to bring them back for a potential Game 5. So if they are bad, they're going to have to come back out.
  • You're losing out on the Tigers (or the Twins 4th starter). That could mean not facing Jarrod Washburn or Rick Porcello for the Tigers or someone like Carl Pavano for the Twins. Although Joba hasn't been great, if he can be decent, he should be better than those guys.
  • You would also allow the Tigers to use Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson in four out of the five games. Considering what both of them have done this season, is that something you want to be doing?
4-man rotation:
Pros:
  • You're going to have to throw a 4th starter if you make the ALCS, and if that guy is going to be Joba, you need to continue to work him. If you believe your other three starters are good enough and your bullpen is good enough, you almost need to make sure he's fresh. Throwing him on irregular rest hasn't worked in the past and it definitely won't in the playoffs.
  • You can set up Andy and Joba on the road. This is huge. They do not pitch well at all at the New Yankee Stadium (their home-road splits prove it) and being able to throw these guys both on the road can only help.
  • As I said above, it forces the other team to use someone they don't want to as well. Washburn has been hurt, Porcello is a rookie, Pavano is still the American Idle. The Tigers would probably have to use Washburn AND Porcello.
  • It also forces your opponent to use another bench spot on a reliever. The Yankees are lucky because Hairston and Pena play so many positions, but will the Tigers or Twins be so lucky with their bench?
  • Mark Feinsand points out that the Yankees are going to give Joba every opportunity to succeed. Wouldn't throwing him in the first round of the playoffs instead of skipping over him be the way to go if that is truly the way they are thinking? If you skip him over in the first round, are you really going to have him be in the physical and mental state to start in the ALCS if needed?
Cons:
  • Again, you'll have to start a Joba Chamberlain who isn't stretched out, hasn't pitched well and got rocked yesterday by a Mariners team that is hitting deficient. The Tigers and Twins aren't mashers, but they'll pose problems for Joba.
  • You take away a bench spot which could be big when you want to pinch run for some of the slower members of the Yankees team later on in games.
  • If you go this route and determine that Joba can't go, your options are limited. Tyler Kepner points out Sergio Mitre has been bad as well (Mitre: 37 1/3 innings, 46 hits, 27 earned runs, 10 walks, 26 strikeouts, 6.51 E.R.A.) and Josh Towers, Ian Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves don't seem to ready to fill that role. The one man who may be able to do it, Chad Gaudin, doesn't exactly inspire a great deal of confidence, either.
So what do you think? Do you choose a 3-game or 4-game series? I think the Yankees have two weeks to figure it out. I agree with River Avenue Blues, it comes down to Joba. If Joba can figure it out the last few games, you ride that momentum and start him in the playoffs. If Chad Gaudin continues to pitch well, maybe you scrap Joba all together and pitch Gaudin as the 4th starter when needed. If the team has momentum, they may want to start the day early and just continue to ride it. I think the Yankees, if given the opportunity, will choose to go only 3 starters, but judging by some of the pros of using the 4-man rotation, I wouldn't be surprised if they go that route.