G-I-D-P Spells Frustration Over Last Night's Ending

At times, I feel like I'm spoiled as a Yankee fan. I don't expect the team to go 162-0, but in the past two years I've seen them launch some improbably comebacks and made opposing bullpens look like mush so often that I feel like they are never out of a game. So when last night the Yankees were down 2-0 or 3-0 in a game, I felt like a comeback was not only imminent, but necessary. The team's bats had failed recently and this was about the time they turned it on and stole a game. And while things were derailed in the 8th inning when Marcus Thames grounded out, I felt that the 9th inning was going to provide promise as well.

GIDP is becoming all too Jeterian at times (MSNBC)

But then came "fun with numbers" as Derek Jeter--El Capitan, Captain Clutch, etc--rapped into a 6-4-3 double play. Game over.

I'm not naive to suggest that the Yankees should come back there. Or that Derek Jeter is the clutchiest clutch hitter that ever lived, but the Yankees could have not swung the bat and won that game. Nor was this all Jeter's fault as Jorge Posada (and to a lesser extent Marcus Thames and Curtis Granderson) were guilty of the same Jeterian mistakes as the Captain himself. And I'm not unappreciative of who Derek Jeter is or what he's done for this team, this franchise and this sport*, but there were some serious problems that I had with yesterday's game**.

*Side Note: Joe Posanski had a great debate today about Derek Jeter vs. Mariano Rivera on who was more important to the Yankees. I need to get into greater detail in a later post about this, but the answer for me is Mariano Rivera and the reason is because of an Intro to Econ concept called opportunity cost. With the Yankees financial might, they could always sign another shortstop such as Alex Rodriguez  to take over for Derek Jeter and the result would have been pretty damn good if not better. But the opportunity cost of Mariano Rivera is unthinkable (and Rivera is a "rate environment extremophile" according to Tommy Bennett of Baseball Prospectus so you gotta love that). JoePo touched on this but even the best closers in the game never reached the level of consistency or dominance that Mo did. Money can't buy that. That isn't to say that Derek Jeter wasn't more valuable to the Yankees dynasty (he definitely was and any WAR or Win Shares) calculation will back that up, but despite the fact today's closers are vastly overrated, the answer has to go to Jeter in the value column. Though I may have mixed up the two. Undetermined.

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The Yankee Clipper: The Infield

Yesterday we looked at the Yankees' outfield at the All-Star Break. Today we'll check out the Yankees infield and see how they've been fairing so far in 2010. We'll leave out the catchers for now, but we'll make sure to get back to them later. We'll also examine any places of weaknesses to see where the Yankees could make some strikes before July 31st:

1. Alex Rodriguez. We'll work our way around the diamond but start first with A-Rod. In what's been his least controversial year (so far), A-Rod's bat hasn't been producing either. His .269/.345/.481 line would all be his worst mark since 1995 and his 27 home run pace would his worst since 1997 (and his first time not hitting 30 since then). The one thing that A-Rod is still doing offensively is driving in runs and his 70 RBI are 3rd in the American League--and puts him on pace for 133 which would be the 4th highest mark of his career. He's also hitting doubles and triples at a high pace and his projected total of 42 non-HR XBH would be his highest since 1997. Now that could mean that he's just had bad luck and some of his flyballs haven't left the park this year--and the numbers support that. Only 11.2% of A-Rod's flyballs have left the park which would be his lowest mark since 1995 and way under his 18.5% career mark and his BABIP of .281 is way under his career mark of .320. So what does this mean for the man who is about to hit 600 home runs? There's probably some sort of correction coming (especially since he's also been battling a bad hip). I would assume he ends the season with higher slash lines and his regular 30+ HR and 100+ RBI power numbers (though his steals have gone down from 24 in 2007 to 18 in 2008 to 14 in 2009 to only 2 so far in 2010). The weirdest part of A-Rod's stats: he hits righties at a much better clip (175 points higher in OPS) than he hits lefties. This mostly seems to be because his inability to hit lefties cutters and it is a small sample size--but it is strange (as was his All-Star Game exclusion). His UZR number is actually his best since 2005 so despite his bad hip, he's still about average defensively. The key for A-Rod is finding a good backup so the Yankees feel comfortable sitting or DH'ing him once every week to 10 days. Right now, I don't think they have confidence in any one of the backups (and we'll get to that later) and need to hope for more A-Bombs from A-Rod. Best Month: May .330/.408/.534 with 5 HR and 27 RBI.
2. Derek Jeter. "El Capitan" had one of the best years of his career last season. This year has been a little rougher on the aging shortstop. A free agent in the off-season, he's at least made the Yankees think twice about giving him too many years. .274/.340/.392 would amazing all be the lowest marks of his entire career. He's on pace for 112 runs, 32 2B, 15 HR, 80 RBI and 17 SB so the production is still there, but he's certainly fallen off of his 2009 mark (and this is all with his HR/FB % the highest of his career). There is still hope for Jeter, though. He's typically a better second half player with his three best months of July, August and September (in ascending order). In many ways this season looks a lot like 2008 when Jeter had a horrible first half but raised his OPS 75 points in the second half. The Yankees need to keep their fingers crossed that Jeter can do the same in 2010 (or they need to move Brett Gardner to the leadoff spot to get a high OBP player in front of Jetes. You also hope that maybe playing for the memory of George Steinbrenner will propel Jeter to greatness in the second half of the season. Here's one big issue: Jeter can't hit righties. He's hitting .323/.372/.504 vs. lefties and an atrocious .248/.323/.332 vs. righties. If Jeter can turn that around, it will go a long way in helping his overall numbers. If not (and RotoGraphs thinks his days of being a .300 hitter may be behind him), the Yankees need to think long and hard about how many years to give an aging shortstop this off-season. Best Month: April .330/.354/.521 with 4 HR, 18 RBI and 3 SB.

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Back in New York, Ready for Game 5

It was an adventure, but I am finally back in the United States. I heard the Yankees won Game 2 from the flight attendant on the loudspeaker when landed. Games 2 and 3 I watched, for the most part, in a hotel's business center. For Game 3, I wasn't even staying at that hotel anymore. That's why it was an adventure. Amazing that Europe refuses to show American sports except on satellite. I know that Americans don't love soccer, but at least we show it on television.

Now it's time for Game 5 of the World Series! The New York Post's Joel Sherman says that it's Ramiro Pena in for Melky Cabrera (injured in the last game) which is an interesting choice.

Hopefully the Yankees can wrap it up tonight and it won't matter much. But a bottom of the lineup of Brett Gardner, Jose Molina and A.J. Burnett is not going to be very intimidating tonight. If A.J. Burnett pitches like he did in his last game, it won't matter. Then again, if Cliff Lee pitches like he did in Game 1 of the series, it won't matter either.

I think the Phillies find a way to win one tonight. The Yankees bottom of the lineup is weak, A.J. Burnett is pitching on short rest and Cliff Lee has been one of the best pitchers of the playoffs. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees found a way to win. Their ability to grind out wins late in games could be a huge advantage tonight in what should be a hard-fought pitcher's duel.

By the way Philly, I know that Jimmy Rollins predicted the Phillies in 5, but Macy's didn't have to rub in the fact that the Phillies did not accomplish this by running an ad congratulating them on winning. I understand when sometimes they make 19-0 t-shirts because anyone can win that one Super Bowl game, but this is a bit ridiculous.

A few interesting videos to enjoy before Game 5:



Did Chan Ho Park throw a spitball? Looks a lot more egregious than Mariano Rivera's supposed spitball, but I think it's just a case of a guy rubbing down the ball. YouTube has gotten a lot of attention this postseason, but I think that sometimes it gets overdone. Though I wonder if the Phillies and Park will get as many questions as Rivera and the Yankees after the viral video on Rivera.



This second video was sent to me by Jenn and is a crazy video. Just wow. Has nothing to do with baseball...but wow.

Possible Injury Concern For Yanks With An IPK Return

Although not on the Giants level, this is potentially pretty bad news for the Yankees. From Peter Abraham:

Jerry Hairston Jr. “felt a pop” in his left wrist while taking a practice swing in the seventh inning. That’s why he came out of the game.

Hairston said he felt a sharp pain. He has been been having wrist issues on and off since diving for a ball while playing for Cincinnati earlier this season. He disclosed that he had an MRI about 10 days ago and then received a cortisone shot to try and calm some inflammation.

“I’m just hoping it’s some scar tissue breaking up,” he said.

Hairston will have another MRI tomorrow. We should hear more then.

This is not as devastating as the Phillips news, but this could be bad for the Yankees. Hairston has been a very useful player for the Yankees. He may be only batting .235 for the Yankees, but he does have a .346 OBP which is higher than Melky Cabrera's and Hairston plays every infield and outfield position.

Luckily for the Yankees, Ramiro Pena is a ready and capable replacement. And with Brett Gardner back healthy, either he or Cabrera will be much better defensive replacements/pitch runners than Hairston.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, they would have been much more versatile had they had both players on the playoff roster (especially since Hairston is a much better outfielder than Hairston). Let's just hope this injury is not serious and they both will be part of the Yankees playoff run.

But one good note from the Yankees yesterday: Ian Patrick Kennedy (also known as IPK) came back from surgery to fix an aneursym and played the Phil Hughes role in the 8th inning of relief. Since Joba, IPK and Hughes all came up together as a trio of starters, it is fitting that each one has now had his shot pitching the 8th inning for the Yankees. Does the "IPK: starter or reliever" debate start today?

Regardless, it was good to see Kennedy back and pitching. As New York Magazine correctly stated, we didn't think we'd see the headline of "Ian Kennedy Pitches As Yanks Win a Series in Anaheim" anytime this season. So congrats to him on making it all the way back.

BRUTAL!

It's Paul's phrase, but it's all I can say here.

BRUTAL!

Worse than leaving Pena on second as the winning run...

Worse than the umpires horrendous strike zone...

Worse than the Red Sox fans incredibly stupid and hypocritical chanting....

Worse than again not having a pitcher get out of the 3rd inning...

Worse even than 2-15 with RISP and 20 total men left on base...

...I feel like we're cursed against the Sox now

BRUTAL!

I feel like all I have are jokes that the Yankees used WANG HUGHes and COKE (should it be followed by HUGHes WANG?). Or that it was hard for Wang. Or asking if they're done beating Wang? Or wondering if they made a bad decision to reinsert Wang? That's all I got...

BRUTAL!

Today's Matchup in New York

A battle of two big, hard-throwing righties today in the Bronx. Let's see how the opposition has faired against them in the past:

                    PA  AB  H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   **OPS**   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+---------+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
Nick Swisher        5   4   2  1  0  1   1   1   1  .500  .600 1.500   2.100     0   0   0   0   0               
 Alex Rodriguez      9   6   2  0  0  1   2   2   0  .333  .444  .833   1.277     0   1   0   0   0               
 Jorge Posada        7   5   2  0  0  0   2   1   1  .400  .429  .400    .829     0   1   0   0   0               
 Robinson Cano      14  14   5  1  0  0   2   0   1  .357  .357  .429    .786     0   0   0   0   0               
 Derek Jeter        16  14   5  0  0  0   1   1   1  .357  .400  .357    .757     1   0   0   0   0               
 Brett Gardner       6   5   1  0  0  0   1   1   3  .200  .333  .200    .533     0   0   0   0   0               
 Johnny Damon       10  10   1  0  1  0   1   0   1  .100  .100  .300    .400     0   0   0   0   0               
 Melky Cabrera       6   6   1  0  0  0   0   0   0  .167  .167  .167    .334     0   0   0   0   1               
 Ramiro Pena         3   2   0  0  0  0   0   1   1  .000  .333  .000    .333     0   0   0   0   0               
 Mark Teixeira       7   5   0  0  0  0   1   2   2  .000  .286  .000    .286     0   0   0   0   0               
 Hideki Matsui       5   4   0  0  0  0   0   1   2  .000  .200  .000    .200     0   0   0   0   0               
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+---------+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
Total              88  75  19  2  1  2  11  10  13  .253  .333  .387    .720     1   2   0   0   1               

It's a mixed bag, with some with great success (Swisher, Posada, Cano, A-Rod, and Jeter) and some without any success (Damon, Melky, Pena, Tex or Matsui). It's a small sample size, however.

And for Joba vs. the Rays:

                    PA  AB  H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   **OPS**   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+---------+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
Evan Longoria       1   1   1  0  0  0   0   0   0 1.000 1.000 1.000   2.000     0   0   0   0   0               
 Carlos Pena         4   2   0  0  0  0   0   1   0  .000  .500  .000    .500     0   0   0   1   0               
 Willy Aybar         3   3   0  0  0  0   0   0   1  .000  .000  .000    .000     0   0   0   0   0               
 B.J. Upton          3   3   0  0  0  0   0   0   2  .000  .000  .000    .000     0   0   0   0   0               
 Carl Crawford       2   2   0  0  0  0   0   0   1  .000  .000  .000    .000     0   0   0   0   0               
 Gabe Gross          1   1   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000    .000     0   0   0   0   0               
 Matthew Joyce       1   1   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000    .000     0   0   0   0   0               
 Dioner Navarro      1   1   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000    .000     0   0   0   0   0               
 Ben Zobrist         1   1   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000    .000     0   0   0   0   0               
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+---------+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+
Total              17  15   1  0  0  0   0   1   4  .067  .176  .067    .243     0   0   0   1   0               

It's a very small sample size, but only Longoria has been able to get a hit off of Joba and he's not even going to be in the lineup. Let's hope Joba can build on his last start where he went 8 innings. Yankees baseball about to start from the Bronx

16 Games Without An Error

I think one of the most impressive things the Yankees have done this season so far has been this streak of 16 games without an error. Granted, you can't get charged with an error if you never get to a ball (paging Derek Jeter) and an error is still a decision made by the official scorer...but this is quite impressive. They're one game away from tying the major league record set by the 2006 Red Sox--which is amazing to me...there's been many good defensive teams and many years of baseball and the fact that 17 games without an error is a record is a shock to me.

The most impressive part of this is that the Yankees have been tremendously subpar defensively in past seasons. By the end of last year they had a starting lineup with Xavier Nady in LF (average at best), Johnny Damon in CF (speedy but poor defender and extremely poor arm), Bobby Abreu in RF (decent arm, but subpar fielder), Jason Giambi at 1B (subpar), Robinson Cano at 2B (below average to above average depending on how he felt), Derek Jeter (poor defender), A-Rod (average, but good arm), and Jorge Posada (average at best).

This year Brian Cashman wanted to improve the defense of his team and he certainly did so. Swisher is an upgrade in RF, Melky/Gardner in CF (and Gardner is one of the top 3 defensive CFs in the league), Teixeira at 1B (who could win some Gold while with the Yanks and saves errors from the other infielders), and an improved bench of plus defenders in whoever is not starting in CF (who can play all 3 OF positions) and Ramiro Pena (who can play all infield positions).

The problem with errors is that not only do they sometimes end up in unearned runs, but they also make your pitcher throw more pitches. And when you make your starters throw more pitches, it hurts your team in ways not shown in the boxscore. This is especially important in the Yankees bandbox in the Bronx because extra pitches means greater chances someone will hit the ball out of the park.

I'm not taking anything away from what the Yankees starters have done the past few weeks, but the starting pitching looks better because of the good defense. I'm not sure how long this errorless streak is going to last, but it's because of increased focus on improving the defense this year that it was even possible.

Another Great Comeback But You Can't Win 'Em All

"Have they ever lost before?"
"Basketball? No, they sure haven't."
"It just feels wrong, that's all."
"Maybe that's where they get that saying, 'You can't win 'em all.'"
"That's a good point, Ralph. They do have that saying."
-Pleasantville

That quote from the movie Pleasantville sort of sums up my feeling right about now. Another well pitched game from the Yankees starters and bullpen. Another weak hitting effort until the 9th. Another come-from-behind in the 9th with a blown save for the opposing closer.

Just this time it ended up in a loss. Some may second guess Joe Girardi for taking out Robinson Cano for Ramiro Pena, but the truth is that the Yankees needed to score that third run to score and you can't worry about the consequences if that spot comes up again in the game (and it looked like it wouldn't). The Yankees had chances to win it in the 9th and 10th and couldn't muster a baserunner with the bottom part of their lineup in the 11th. Maybe the mistake was pitch hitting for Cervelli since he's a .300 hitter. Swisher's bat could have been used to pitch hit later on for somone like Pena. But that may be nit-picking.

Who is looking great? Melky Cabrera and Jose Veras. Melky came up with another huge hit for the Yankees and looks like he took his demotion at the end of last season and losing out on the starting job this year personally and has done a great job coming back. Jose Veras was horrendous in the Yankees bullpen for most of the season, but after almost being demoted recently (Edwar Ramirez was sent down instead of Veras being released) and realizing he was on his last legs, he's come back with a vengence recently.

Who is not looking great? A-Rod and Hideki Matsui. A-Rod is a true three outcome player now: homerun, walk or strikeout. But thankfully a lot of those homeruns have been in big spots. Matsui just looks lost at the plate and you wonder if those knees are bothering him again. If Nady comes back soon, it may pay to put Matsui on the bench for a while to rest those knees.

Regardless, I think this was the best Yankee homestand in a while and maybe their most exciting ever. They never really went down without a fight and they showed that no matter the closer, they were never done until that last out. Remember, Lidge never blew a save last year in the regular season or post season. So to do what the Yankees did to him on two consecutive days--even if only one ended up in a win and even if he may not be the same Brad Lidge this season--is still quite impressive. Let's hope they keep up this momentum as they head on the road.

Gritty Gutsy Brett Gardner

Nice game so far by GGBG (HR, triple, BB). The Yankees have three triples in a game for the first time since April 5, 2003. Oh, and no offense to Captain Jetes but Ramiro Pena reminds me what a good shortstop looks like.

HR Count:
Brett Gardner - 1
David Ortiz - 0

Take that Big Papi!

Cervelli's Infield Single Key To Game

"How many times in recent history have we seen a Yankee catcher leg out an infield single?" That's what my dad asked me right after Francisco Cervelli legged out a huge infield single in the 7th inning with two out. He knew that he was fighting to stay on this team after a poor job with Phil Hughes last night and busted his ass down the line and was called safe. Two batters later, Damon put the ball in the stands, the Yankees led 5-3 and they never looked back. But who knows what would have happened had Cervelli not raced down the baseline to avoid that third out?

There is something to be said about guys who have been here a while--like Damon and Matsui-- contributing. But I often feel like you need to light a fire under some guys' asses to get them going. Robinson Cano was the subject of offseason trade rumors and has come back with a purpose. Melky Cabrera lost his starting job and has been playing great so far this year (on offense at least). Nick Swisher came in as a bench player and played himself into the starting lineup before Xavier Nady got hurt. Phil Coke started out the year roughly but has battled his way back to be the go-to-set-up guy. And game winning rallies have been centered around hustle singles by guys like Brett Gardner and Ramiro Pena.

Part of my problem with the Yankees the past 6 years or so is that they never seem hungry. They are made up of a bunch of guys who have already gotten their payday. Most of these guys won't be here by the end of the year (if/when people get healthy and replace them), but maybe their hunger will rub off on the rest of the Yankees and this team can play with a little more heart than in recent years.