Yankees Playoff Rotation Conundrum

If the Yankees end up holding off the Red Sox and the Angels to win the AL East and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (respectively), they will have a choice to make: do they want to go with a three- or four-man rotation for the first round. Now it's not guaranteed they'll get to make that choice anymore. As The Big Lead points out, the AL East isn't sewn up just yet with the Red Sox five back and the Yankees having 3 games against the Angels and 3 against the Red Sox left (while the Red Sox get 4 against the Royals). Ken Davidoff points out the Yankees can make it really easy for themselves by playing well against the Angels and Red Sox or they can make it a lot more interesting: "If the Sawx can enter the weekend trailing the Yankees by three or fewer games in the loss column, then they can control their own destiny..if the Yankees and Red Sox finish with the same record, AND if Boston beats the Yankees at least once next weekend, then the Red Sox win a seeding tiebreaker based on the head-to-head series this year."

But let's say that doesn't happen (and even if it does, the Yankees are still making the playoffs, just as the Wild Card). Let's pretend that everything stays as is and the Yankees win the AL East and finish with the best record, which series do they choose and who do they pitch? Let's look at the pros and cons of the two options (with all due respect to Rob Neyer, taking Phil Hughes out of the bullpen and making him a starter at this point, is not one of the options...at all):

3-man rotation:

Pros:

• Joba doesn't have to start. Tyler Kepner calls him a riddle. Peter Abraham points out that he's 0-4 with an 8.42 ERA in his last eight starts and opponents have hit .331 against him, and, maybe even worse, he's overconfident, refusing to acknowledge he's doing anything wrong. Jon Heyman thought that pitching coach Dave Eiland had found something in Joba's delivery, but maybe there still needs to be fixing. Peter Gammons wrote that the Joba rules have been all about preserving Chamberlain, but at this point, it can't be denied that they're hurting him.
• Joba could slide into the 'pen. Sliding Into Home caught a Jon Heyman tweet which suggested just that. Imagine Joba for the 7th, Hughes for the 8th and Rivera for the 9th in the playoffs. That could be pretty deadly. I'm not sure if they would do it given his recent struggles and the need to stretch him out, but the Yankees could move Joba Chamberlain into the bullpen for the first round and it would shorten games a great deal.
  
• This would also mean one less bullpen arm would be needed so you could go with another bench player. Freddy Guzman or Ramiro Pena or Francisco Cervelli or Shelly Duncan would be a nice way to fill out the rest of the bench.
  

Cons:

• You're relying a lot on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte. Sabathia has a postseason ERA of 7.92. Burnett has been wildly inconsistent. Pettitte has a sore arm and pitched horribly last season with arm troubles. Are you really confident in CC and A.J. for two games and Pettitte for one in a 5 game series? If Sabathia loses game 1, it could be over in a hurry.
• As Ken Rosenthal points out, the Yankees already don't know whether to start Pettitte or Burnett in Game 2...but if you start them in Game 2, you HAVE to bring them back for a potential Game 5. So if they are bad, they're going to have to come back out.
  
• You're losing out on the Tigers (or the Twins 4th starter). That could mean not facing Jarrod Washburn or Rick Porcello for the Tigers or someone like Carl Pavano for the Twins. Although Joba hasn't been great, if he can be decent, he should be better than those guys.
  
• You would also allow the Tigers to use Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson in four out of the five games. Considering what both of them have done this season, is that something you want to be doing?
  

4-man rotation:

Pros:

• You're going to have to throw a 4th starter if you make the ALCS, and if that guy is going to be Joba, you need to continue to work him. If you believe your other three starters are good enough and your bullpen is good enough, you almost need to make sure he's fresh. Throwing him on irregular rest hasn't worked in the past and it definitely won't in the playoffs.
• You can set up Andy and Joba on the road. This is huge. They do not pitch well at all at the New Yankee Stadium (their home-road splits prove it) and being able to throw these guys both on the road can only help.
  
• As I said above, it forces the other team to use someone they don't want to as well. Washburn has been hurt, Porcello is a rookie, Pavano is still the American Idle. The Tigers would probably have to use Washburn AND Porcello.
  
• It also forces your opponent to use another bench spot on a reliever. The Yankees are lucky because Hairston and Pena play so many positions, but will the Tigers or Twins be so lucky with their bench?
• Mark Feinsand points out that the Yankees are going to give Joba every opportunity to succeed. Wouldn't throwing him in the first round of the playoffs instead of skipping over him be the way to go if that is truly the way they are thinking? If you skip him over in the first round, are you really going to have him be in the physical and mental state to start in the ALCS if needed?
  

Cons:

• Again, you'll have to start a Joba Chamberlain who isn't stretched out, hasn't pitched well and got rocked yesterday by a Mariners team that is hitting deficient. The Tigers and Twins aren't mashers, but they'll pose problems for Joba.
• You take away a bench spot which could be big when you want to pinch run for some of the slower members of the Yankees team later on in games.
  
• If you go this route and determine that Joba can't go, your options are limited. Tyler Kepner points out Sergio Mitre has been bad as well (Mitre: 37 1/3 innings, 46 hits, 27 earned runs, 10 walks, 26 strikeouts, 6.51 E.R.A.) and Josh Towers, Ian Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves don't seem to ready to fill that role. The one man who may be able to do it, Chad Gaudin, doesn't exactly inspire a great deal of confidence, either.
  

So what do you think? Do you choose a 3-game or 4-game series? I think the Yankees have two weeks to figure it out. I agree with River Avenue Blues, it comes down to Joba. If Joba can figure it out the last few games, you ride that momentum and start him in the playoffs. If Chad Gaudin continues to pitch well, maybe you scrap Joba all together and pitch Gaudin as the 4th starter when needed. If the team has momentum, they may want to start the day early and just continue to ride it. I think the Yankees, if given the opportunity, will choose to go only 3 starters, but judging by some of the pros of using the 4-man rotation, I wouldn't be surprised if they go that route.