A Look Back At MLB Predictions

Back in April I did my Major League Baseball predictions. Some worked out. Some did not. There's still some games to play, but I think it's time to see how the predictions fared Let's take a look at all of them:

AL East:

My standings:

1) Red Sox

2) Yankees (Wild Card)

3) Rays

4) Blue Jays

5) Orioles

Current standings:

1) Yankees
2) Red Sox 6 GB (Wild Card)
3) Rays 18.5 GB
4) Blue Jays 27.5 GB
5) Orioles 35.5 GB

Key Comment: "Too often we pick Cinderella teams in baseball to repeat their success the next year. The glass slipper doesn't always fit twice. If you look at some teams that have gone to the World Series in recent years with so-so bullpens (or, rather, bullpens that have greatly overachieved)--Cards, Tigers, Astros, ChiSox, etc.--they have not been able to duplicate their success the next year."

How Did I Do? Well besides my reverse jinx, really well. I think that, barring a collapse in their last 10 games, the Yankees and Red Sox will flip-flop. But the Rays were really last year's Cinderella without the bullpen to back it up this year and the Yankees and Red Sox were the class of the league. Good start

AL Central:

My standings:

1) Tigers

2) Indians

3) White Sox

4) Twins

5) Royals

Current standings:

1) Tigers
2) Twins 2.5 GB
3) White Sox 8 GB
4) Royals 17.5 GB
5) Indians 19 GB

Key Comment: "There are a few truly awful divisions in baseball and this is probably the worst. 86 wins should be enough to take this division. And I do believe any team could win it...in a division of teams with problems, Detroit seems to have the least."

How Did I Do? The Tigers are in first and the White Sox are in third, so I did well there. I bit a little on the Indians hype and I downplayed the impact of the M&M boys in Minnesota. If the Tigers hold of the Twins, I'll be OK with my picks. It may be 88 wins that win this division, so I don't think I was so off talking about how bad this division is. The Tigers may win this division and they have a negative run differential.

AL West:

My standings:

1) Angels

2) A's

3) Rangers

4) Mariners

Current standings:

1) Angels
2) Rangers 7.5 GB
3) Mariners 11 GB
4) A's 18 GB

Key Comment: "But somehow [the Angels] seem to have the best team. They also have the best manager. I'm not saying they'll run away with it, but they seem like the best team on paper."

How Did I Do? That comment seemed to hit it right on the head. They lost Mark Teixeira and K-Rod and still are going to win the division. It wasn't as easy this year (the Mariners and Rangers gave them a run for their money), but they seem like a lock at this point and have found the pieces to win. I also overbought the hype on the A's, didn't believe enough in the Rangers pitching (they did have Vincente Padilla and Kris Benson going 2-3 in the rotation to start the season, so I think I get a pass there), and I think that the Mariners lack of offense killed them in the end. So overall, not bad in the AL

NL East:

My standings:

1) Phillies

2) Mets (Wild Card)

3) Braves

4) Marlins

5) Nats

Current standings:

1) Phillies
2) Braves 7.5 GB
3) Marlins 8 GB
4) Mets 24 GB
5) Nats 37 GB

Key Comment: "[The Phillies] made a bad move by going out and getting Ibanez, a guy who didn't seem to fit into their lineup (and who they could have waited to sign and got for a lot less). Their starting pitching is shaky: Hamels is already dealing with injuries, Myers has gopherball syndrome, Moyer is close to 50, and Blanton and Park are average at best. But the bullpen is just as good and this lineup can mash (it's the best in the NL)."

How Did I Do? I'm a big boy; I'll admit when I'm wrong. The Phillies could have got Ibanez for a lot less, but he was worth every penny in the first half, helping them vault out to their big lead. Their starting pitching was shaky so they went out and got Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez (as well as J.A. Happ. Those three added to Blanton and Hamels makes for a formidable rotation. And the real concern for them is the closer (though I was right about the team mashing). The Mets fell apart and the Braves and Marlins were middle of the pack, but have been steady so this one is pretty good overall.

NL Central:

My standings:

1) Cubs

2) Cardinals

3) Reds

4) Astros

5) Brewers
6) Pirates

Current standings:

1) Cardinals
2) Cubs 10 GB
3) Brewers 14.5 GB
4) Reds 18.5 GB
5) Astros 18.5 GB
6) Pirates 31.5 GB

Key Comment: "[For the Cubs], Gregg may not be the answer at closer, Bradley never plays a full season, Fukudome looks like a potential bust, and the loss of DeRosa will hurt...[For the Cards], Carpenter looks like he's back, Wainright has developed into a very good pitcher and they have Sir Albert in the middle of any lineup...[For the Pirates], they will having a losing record for the 17th consecutive season and that's a major league record"

How Did I Do? The Cubs and Cardinals flip-flopped, but otherwise, pretty well. The Reds weren't as good as I thought they'd be and the Brewers were a bit better, but overall, I did well in this division. The Cardinals are the run-away favorites and just need to hit that magic number (2) and clinch at this point.


NL Central:

My standings:

1) Dodgers

2) Diamondbacks

3) Giants

4) Rockies

5) Padres

Current standings:

1) Dodgers
2) Rockies 5 GB (Wild Card)
3) Giants 10 GB
4) Padres 22.5 GB
5) Diamondbacks 25.5 GB

Key Comment: "The Giants were tempting to pick in the top 2. They have a really, really good rotation. They just have no hitting...The Dodgers seem to me to be the most complete team. They have hitting, starting pitching and bullpen. They will miss Derek Lowe and they may have to get a starter at the deadline, though Kuroda/Billingsley/Kershaw should be a good 1/2/3"

How Did I Do? I never saw the Rockies coming. But overall, not bad. The Dodgers are in first place and seem like they have the division won. The Giants were really good but couldn't compete because they didn't hit. The Padres were as bad as advertised. I just flip-flopped the Diamondbacks and the Rockies. The Rockies developed their young players and got great starting pitching while the D-backs did not. The Rockies still need to finish strong, though. The Braves and Giants are 5 back and the Marlins are 5.5. But with a Magic Number at 7 and only 11 left to play, it should happen for the Rockies.

My MVP Predictions: MannyBeingManny and Miguel Cabrera.
The Reality: Manny was the MVP...until he got suspended. Now Albert Pujols is going to run away with that honor. Cabrera would have won the MVP in a lesser year, so I'm not unhappy with that pick. I just think it's going to another AL Central player (Joe Mauer) now.

My Cy Young Predictions: Johan Santana and CC Sabathia.
The Reality: Santana was great and then stunk and then got injured and then didn't pitch again. He was 7-2 with a 1.77 ERA and 86 Ks in 55 innings through the end of May, so he was the early front-runner. CC is making a late push for the Cy in the AL, and, like Cabrera, he would have won in lesser years...but this year I think Zack Grienke and Felix Hernandez will be too much for him to overcome.

My Playoff Predictions: I'll take the Yanks/Sox and Phillies/Cubs in the league championship series
The Reality: We'll see...