Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and the Other Ex-Yankees

Every once in a while it's good to look back at the ex-Yankees and check in on how they are doing. Last off-season featured a lot of movement and turnover, especially for a team that had won the World Series the previous year. Let's start with the Curtis Granderson trade and work our way through and after each player I'll add if the Yankees miss him or not.

Austin Jackson - Jackson may be the best prospect the Yankees have traded in a while. Although he's come back down to earth since his early-season breakout, he's still hitting .308/.352/.412 with a .347 wOBA and 10 steals. His .418 BABIP suggests that average could continue to come down (and his past month has been pretty atrocious at the bat), but even if he does, Jackson is backing it up with Gold Glove defense. His catch in the 9th inning of the Armando Gallaraga near-perfect game stands out, but John Dewan just came out with his top defenders in 2010 and it shows that Austin Jackson has been the best defensive outfielder in baseball*. The Yankees have had the benefit of not regretting many trades in the past 15 years but this one may turn out to be on they regret. Definitely miss. Picture from MLive.com

*Side Note: A lot of us have seen an improved defensive effort from Robinson Cano, but his inclusion on this list  (#8 in all of baseball) shows that his defense has actually been excellent so far in 2010.

Ian Kennedy - IPK is one of those classics of "would he actually have succeeded pitching in the AL East?" I don't think so. But Kennedy has come back from aneurysm surgery and has proven to be a valuable addition to the Diamondbacks team. His 14 game started is tops in the majors and although he's 3-4, he's put up a 3.57 ERA and a solid 2.48 SO:BB ratio. ESPN's Buster Olney wrote this morning that other than Justin Upton, Kennedy is the only untouchable player on the Diamondbacks team. That's pretty lofty status. Alas, some of the stats may be inflated by good luck and an unattainable pace. Kennedy is on pace to throw 219 innings after never throwing more than 39.2 innings in the Majors before and only reaching his previous high of 165 in 2007 (combined between every single level of baseball). The larger problem is that Kennedy's FIP (4.78), xFIP (4.28) and unusually low BABIP (.259) suggests that there is a correction in ERA coming at some point as well. And in his one American League start (against Boston yesterday) Kennedy got charged with 6 runs in 6 innings. Miss only because of lack of depth. Picture from AZCentral

Phil Coke - The third part of the Granderson deal, Coke has enjoyed a good deal of success in the Tigers bullpen. He's 4-0 so far on the season with a 3.18 ERA and turned around his home run issue from last season (he gave up 10 last year, 1 so far this year). Coke's FIP (3.41) seems to make it possible that his ERA could continue at this point, but when you factor in the home run decrease, his xFIP of 4.15 puts him more in line with last year's ERA. Even if his ERA jumps up a bit, Coke has still been a valuable piece to the Tigers bullpen and a missing piece for the Yankees. Miss in the 'pen.

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Three Bothersome Things and a Few Takeaways

It's weird to feel nervous about this World Series. The Yankees are up 3-2 and coming back to the Bronx. The Yankees have lost two games in a row at home only twice since A-Rod returned to the lineup at the beginning of May. Amazingly, those two times were to the Nationals and the Orioles. So there's reason to have faith that the team with the best record in baseball and the best record at home should be able to win one of two back in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.

It also may be unreasonable to think the Yankees should have won all three games in Philly. The last team to sweep the middle three games of the series on the road were the 1996 Yankees who swept the Braves in Atlanta to win the 1996 World Series. But it doesn't mean that last night's game isn't bothersome. Here's four reasons why:

• Joe Girardi starting A.J. Burnett on 3 days rest and going with Molina over Posada. I was a big fan of going with A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia on 3 days rest. I still think it was the right decision to do so. It just didn't work out. Burnett was awful last night and the Yankees were forced to use their bullpen for a lot of pitches. That bodes poorly when you consider the Yankees have Pettitte on short rest coming up next. The one thing I have a problem with was keeping Jose Molina in the lineup over Jorge Posada. I can at least tolerate it in an American League park with the DH, but with Gardner, Molina and Burnett at the bottom of the Yankees lineup last  night against Cliff Lee, they were already playing from behind. And Molina's game calling hasn't stopped A.J. from having bad first innings in Game 5 of the past two series. So that move was a total failure.

• Phil Coke's two home runs. One big takeaway from last night was how well the Yankees bullpen pitched--except for Phil Coke. The rest of the bullpen (David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves and Phil Hughes) pitched 5.1 innings, giving up only 3 hits, 0 BB, and 4 K. Although they were mostly low-pressure situations, it was good to see some reliable arms emerge from the bullpen. Phil Coke, on the other hand, was downright awful. With Damaso Marte having worked a lot this series and coming off arm troubles this season, it was up to the other lefty in the Yankees 'pen to get the job done. Instead, Coke gave up two home runs to two lefties and those two runs were the insurance the Phillies needed as that was the difference in the game. Add Phil Coke to Brian Bruney on the list of pitchers who should never see the pitching mound again this season.

• Derek Jeter's GIDP and Mark Teixeira's K. The last bothersome thing is that the Yankees had a chance to come back, but fell just short. Derek Jeter grounded into a huge double play in the 9th inning. With runners on first and third and nobody out, Jeter had a chance to really put the pressure on the Phils. Jeter let a fastball go right down the middle then turned over on another fastball for an easy GIDP. Derek Jeter has hit into 14 postseason double plays, including 3 costly ones in the 2007 ALDS. None were more costly, however, than last night's. Johnny Damon reached after Jeter (another great AB by Damon) and Mark Teixeira represented the tying run. But Ryan Madson made Tex look silly and struck him out looking. The gameplan for the Phils facing Teixeira seem to be fastballs away and breaking balls down and it has been working. Teixeira now has struckout 7 times so far in the World Series after 8 Ks in the ALCS. He has only two hits in 19 ABs (although one was a HR and the other a 2B). Mark Teixiera's first playoffs in pinstripes is looking a lot like Tino Martinez's first playoffs for the Yankees in 1996, especially the World Series. Tino was only 1-11 in that series and had to be replaced by Cecil Fielder, but was an offensive force in his next 4 World Series with the Bronx Bombers. Teixeira still has a chance to be a hero both because of his defense and because he had 24 HR, 71 RBI and an OPS of 1.013 at home during the regular season. He also had 30 of his 39 HR and 91 of his 122 RBIs as a lefty this season and he will switch around to that side for Pedro Martinez, the pitcher he went deep off of in Game 2. That's little consolation for the Yankees comeback last night, however.
  

A few Twitter reactions when I posed the question about what bothered people the most this morning:

• @Lumpy231: how bout the decision to throw the whole staff on 3 days rest
• @yankeechick78: I was just talking about the goats of the game. and I named all three that you did. Cokes bothers me the most.
• @YankeeClipper09: Coke's HRs and Jeter's GIDP.  But, I love the fight in this team.  They made the Phillies, and their fans, nervous in the 9th
• @darry2385: coke's HRs.  turned out to be the difference in the game, despite AJ's no-show
• @Milfhunters: the gidp was the game killer, but tex's weak outs are really troubling
• @jonathan_meola: AJ put us in the hole 2 begin with.  Coke's HRs was just the frosting on the cake
• @5States: I'd say AJ's start, because without that, the other stuff really doesn't happen.
  

One good thing for the Yankees is that Pettitte has been really good for the Yanks on short rest. Here's what he's done in the postseason on 3-days rest via Baseball-Reference:

Date          Series G Tm   Opp GmReslt App,Dec    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GmSc BF AB 2B ERA
-------------+------+-+---+----+-------+---------+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+---+----+--+--+--+--+--+
1996-10-13    ALCS   5 NYY @BAL W  6-4  GS-8  ,W   8    3  2  2  1  3  2 100  60   70 28 27  0  2.25 
1996-10-24    WS     5 NYY @ATL W  1-0  GS-9  ,W   8.1  5  0  0  3  4  0  96  59   74 31 28  1  0.00 
1997-10-06    ALDS   5 NYY @CLE L  3-4  GS-7  ,L   6.2  6  4  4  0  2  0  97  68   48 26 23  2  5.40 
2000-10-08    ALDS   5 NYY @OAK W  7-5  GS-4       3.2 10  5  5  2  4  0  88  55   23 23 19  1  12.27 
2003-10-19    WS     2 NYY  FLA W  6-1  GS-9  ,W   8.2  6  1  0  1  7  0 111  70   76 32 31  0  0.00 

That's really only one bad start in there. I know Pettitte is a bit older, but if you look at the World Series success he has in the past on short rest, there's a reason to be optimistic

Here's another few reasons to be optimistic: the Yankees never give up, the Phillies bullpen is shaky at best, and the Yankees are still up 3-2 in this series. This is how the ALCS was won as well and keeping with my original prediction, I see the Yankees bringing it back to the Bronx and wrapping it up in 6. This team never gives up in a game and I think it would be apropos of the themes of the 2009 season if the Yankees won it at home tomorrow night with Pettitte starting, Rivera closing and a comeback win for the Yankees in the Bronx.

A.J. Burnett and His Catchers

Everything that A.J. Burnett and Jose Molina do tomorrow is going to be criticized and analyzed and broken down. Why? Because Burnett and potential Hall of Fame catcher Jorge Posada did not have chemistry and Joe Girardi felt he needed a change. Let's take a look at what opposing hitters did vs. Burnett in 2009 by catcher courtesy of Baseball-Reference:



Before you jump up and down and say Francisco Cervelli should start over Jose Molina, let me remind you that 2 games is too small of a sample size. I feel like 11 games (Molina's games with Burnett) and 16 games (Posada's games with Burnett) are also too small of a sample size. But we work with what we have.

Can we determine from this that Molina is a much better catcher for Burnett than Posada? Well ever one of the slashes (BA/OBP/SLG) and, therefore the overall OPS, favors Jose Molina. The one caveat here is that the batting average of balls in play BAbip is about 22 points higher which does suggest that the opposing hitters got a bit more lucky with Posada catching.

But the glaring number for me is the strikeout to walk ratio and the strikeout rate. Burnett was much more efficient at striking out people and--almost as importantly with AJ--not walking people with Molina as his backstop.

Let's look at A.J.'s two starts vs. the Twins this season. The first game was Kevin Cash (I was surprised to see he caught that many games with Burnett) and Fransisco Cervelli and the second game was Jorge Posada:



Both games were Yankees wins where Burnett pitched into the 7th. He allowed two runs in each game, but gave up way too many hits and walks. In total he allowed 23 base runners in 13 innings. They won the games but Burnett labored too much in each (his 123 pitches on May 7th was a season-high). He needs to improve his command and keep focused, especially when he inevitably has runners on base. Maybe the issue is that he worries about them stealing too much

Let's hope that having Molina back there tomorrow night will make the difference, because while Jorge Posada is a Hall-of-Fame-caliber hitter, Molina is one of the worst hitters in the game.

The Two 2009 Yankees' Grandslams

How's this for an example of how strange this game can be? The Yankees have hit almost 240 home runs so far this season, but although they came into this game with 190 opportunities with the bases loaded, they only had one grand slam until Robinson Cano hit another tonight. The first? Jose Molina of all people.

Let's look at those two:

Robinson Cano: .203/.241/.313 with runners in scoring position and even worse .231/.233/.269 with the bases loaded. Came into this game with 30 opportunities with the bases loaded, and had only 6 hits and one double.

Jose Molina: Career worst .211/.287/.258 this season. Only two players in all of baseball with as many plate appearances have a worse OPS than Molina. And he has 2 opportunities with the bases loaded...and one grand slam.

That means zero grand slams for A-Rod, Mark Teixiera, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher or Johnny Damon...but one for one of the worst hitters in the game and one of the worst with RISP have hit grannies.

Go figure!