Predicting the Cys

Although anything could happen, I think the MVPs are going to Joe Mauer (Joel Sherman seems to agree) and Albert Pujols. The Cy Young award? That's still very much up for debate. ESPN uses the Cy Young Predictor from The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers to predict the Cy Young Award winners for 2009. Here's what they came up with:

American League:

1. Zack Greinke
2. Felix Hernandez
3. CC Sabathia
4. Mariano Rivera
5. Joe Nathan
6. Justin Verlander
7. Roy Halladay
8. Jered Weaver
9. Scott Feldman
10. Jonathan Papelbon

National League:

1. Adam Wainright
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Jonathan Broxton
4. Tim Lincecum
5. Heath Bell
6. Ryan Franklin
7. Josh Johnson
8. Dan Haren
9. Brian Wilson
10. Javier Vazquez

My thoughts? The formula gives too much wait to a team's success (represented here by VB or Victor Bonus) and a little too much weight on closers. Is Jonathan Broxton really better than Tim Lincecum? Are Heath Bell and Ryan Franklin better than Josh Johnson and Dan Haren? Because a team does well does that matter to the Cy Young as much as it matters to the MVP award? We're already counting wins as a plus into the equation, do we also have to count in team success?

I think they predicted the winners well, though. I'd too go with Greinke and Wainwright at this point. I thought that Lincecum would run away with it, and although he does have 50 more Ks than Wainwright, I don't think he's better at this point. I also think that Chris Carpenter loses points for the time he's missed; right now Wainwright is the only starter on here who has made 32 starts or won more than 16 games. The one problem for Wainwright? Carpenter may split some of the vote with him in the Midwest. That could allow someone like Lincecum to sneak in and win it.

In the AL, I think it will come down to Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez. Both have much better strikeout numbers and ERAs than CC Sabathia, who I believe is being overweighted (no pun intended) because of his team's success. Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan are both having phenomenal closer seasons, but with three great pitchers above them, I don't think they'll sniff the top.

So there you have it. Who do you think will win? Do you think the closers get a fair shake? Do you think team success should play a factor? Feel free to weigh in.