Biggest Fantasy Baseball Surprises: Outfielders, DHs and Pitchers

Yesterday we looked at the biggest fantasy baseball surprises in the infield, today we'll look at those that play the outfield, are solely utility, starting pitchers or relief pitchers. All stats and rankings courtesy of Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball. Here we go:

Utility (AKA DH)

Biggest Surprise - Vladamir Guerrero. Former Angels made popular fantasy baseball draft picks from John Lackey to Chone Figgins. But who would have thought that the best former Angel was going to be Vladamir Guerrero. He was ranked the 145th best player coming into this season and is now the second best player in baseball and looking like his MVP form of the past (as well as a sure-fire candidate to go back to Anaheim for the All-Star Game). He's hitting .339 with 29 runs, 12 HR, 42 RBI, and 4 SB.  Two points to make. One is that the weather hasn't really gotten hot so the balls are going to start jumping out even more in Texas this summer. And two, the craziest point about this whole thing is that if the Rangers had completed their trade for Mike Lowell in the off-season, Vlady may be sitting with Jermaine Dye at home still looking for work. Picture from USA Today 

Biggest Disappointment - Pat Burrell. This is pretty bad. Burrell was drafted in a fair amount of leagues for those hoping to get a bounce-back year from the Tampa DH. But he rewarded those people (and the Rays) with a .202 average, 9 runs, 2 HR and 13 RBI in 84 ABs before being released. Ouch. For a small market team such as Tampa, that's gotta hurt.

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Three Reminders: Poll, Fantasy Baseball and NCAA Tourney Pick'em

Three reminders for you on this Tuesday night before LOST as the New York Rangers fight for their playoff lives with the Montreal Canadians.

First, we have the poll going on the right side for the best closer in New York. Right now, it's a runaway win, but there's still time to vote.

We also have a free Fantasy Baseball league with two open spots and a NCAA Tournament Pick'em League with NYaT bragging rights on the line.

Picture from the Albany Times Union

Worst of the Postseason so Far

There has been a lot of bad this postseason. I put a poll up on the right so we can vote on what was worst, but let's review all the bad:

Closers - I know Mariano Rivera is considered in a class by himself...but every other closer this postseason has a blown save (I count Madson as the Phillies' closer in the first round). Every single one. Even Rivera hasn't been infallible letting an inherited runner score in the ALDS and looking somewhat human throughout. Maybe it's all that spit.

Announcing - I don't know which group is worst. Chip Caray (#fisted), Ron Darling (tax issues), and Craig Sager (awful suits) for TBS. Joe Buck (who must have tattooed a Halo on his ass for this series), Tim McCarver (who is confirmed senile), and Ken Rosenthal (great online but ill-suited for sideline reporting) for FOX. ESPN Radio is running out the awful crew of John Miller (and his lovely Hispanic name pronunciations), Joe Morgan (fire him already, please), and Steve Phillips (and his troubles exposed today). And on local radio we have John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman on WCBS. Tim McCarver let us know that Gary Matthews, Jr. is the son of Gary Matthews, Sr. Awful Announcing, indeed.

Broadcasting - TBS can't come back from commercial in time for the pitch. FOX can't put up the pitch trax correctly. I know TBS has a contract with baseball, but why do they get to broadcast the most important games of the postseason when they don't have any broadcasting experience? Would it kill either network to put a local guy on the broadcast? Can we get Vin Scully to do the Dodgers? Also, MLB caves to the networks when it comes to broadcasts. There are WAY too many off days. If the Yankees had a game rained out in the ALCS, it would have had to be rescheduled with FOX's football broadcasting in mind. The World Series should be in Game 5 by now, not the LCS. There is no reason why we should have a World Series that can't end before November 2nd. None.

Umpiring - I must have missed that memo where MLB went to replacement umps like the NBA. Must have missed this memo. Screw instant replay, just get new umpires! I believe Tim McClelland also declared Florida for George W Bush in 2000...while looking at the outfield. I don't even think I need to explain this one if you've seen any of the playoffs so far.

Baserunning - These are supposed to be "fundamentally sound" teams in the postseason. Yeah, um, about that... It wasn't just the Twins in the first round (though they really ran themselves out of that series). Bobby Abreu and Jorge Posada showed how not to run the bases so far in the ALCS. Even Captain Jetes got picked off on a mediocre move yesterday.

Commercials - Black Taco! The Black Eyed Pees hocking DirectTV. Former SNL personalities playing with the MyTouch. Whoopie Goldberg and Phil Jackson playing with the MyTouch (well if you want to sing out, sing out...and if you want to free, be free!). Black Taco! The George Lopez Show vs. The Wanda Sykes Show. Avocados. Quitting smoking. Ninja Assasin. Blackberry. Some movie about vampires with John C. Reilly (?!). Black Jack Taco with pepperjack sauce!

Errors - The Angels have been awful this series, especially in the first two games. The final play of Game 2 was a walk-off on an error. In the second game of the ALCS, Robinson Cano had two errors and Derek Jeter had one. Chase Utley looks like he has a case of the yips. Matt Holliday will always remember dropping the ball against the Dodgers that effectively ended that series. The mental errors have been huge also. Jorge Posada forgot how many outs there are. Numerous guys are getting picked off. 0-2 pitches are being left over the plate. People are throwing to the wrong base, overrunning the base, trying to advance to third on a ball in front of them. Managers are making errors as well. Joe Girardi may have managed himself out of a game and all the other managers have had at least one decision that leaves you scratching your head.

MLB - All of the above reflects poorly on them. The two small market teams in the playoffs (Rockies and Twins) got eliminated in the first round. They had a total of one game 4 so they lost out on a ton of revenue dollars. They could possibly have two LCS series that end in 5. Bud Selig is asked about instant replay after every game. The Commish can't be too happy right now.

Mets Fans - Carlos Gomez played in a playoff game before Johan Santana. Randy Wolf, the guy they didn't want to sign and instead went after Oliver Perez, is a trusted starter for the Dodgers. The Yankees and the Phillies may face each other in the World Series. The Yankees are their cross-town rivals. The Phillies are their division rivals. Pedro Martinez is pitching well for the Phillies. Ron Darling is broadcasting the Phillies games and gushing over the Phillies players. Jimmy Rollins is getting game winning hits. David Wright can no longer be considered the best third baseman in New York by any means. And Steve Phillips' name being dragged through the mud means that people will of course bring up his awful tenure with the Mets. And it came out today that while the Mets were saying all year that they couldn't spend any money because of Bernie Madoff, that they actually made money off of Madoff! Don't worry, they'll go back to losing on the last day of the season in 2010!

So who is having the worst postseason so far? Put you answer in the comments below and vote over on the right.

Playoff Comebacks, Closer Failures, and the Growing Mariano Rivera Fan Club

Let me first say that the Mariano Rivera Fan Club should be growing exponentially. After watching some of the best closers in the games blow up this postseason, it makes you appreciate Mariano Rivera more and more. Here is a series-by-series breakdown of the 9th inning comebacks vs. All-Star closers in this division series.

Yankees vs. Twins, Game 2 - Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in the game (47/52 on save opportunities) and has been for a few years. The Yankees were down by two runs entering the 9th inning. Mark Teixeira led off with a single and Alex Rodriguez followed up by despositing a 3-1 pitch into the Yankees bullpen. Mark Teixeira would win it with a walk-off in the bottom of the 11th. Nathan would also allow two inherited runners to score in Game 3, helping the Yankees seal the series. Let's look at Nathan's regular season stats:



Dodgers vs. Cardinals, Game 2 - Ryan Franklin has had a very good year (38/43 on save opportunities) although he struggled a bit down the stretch. Franklin game on with a 2-1 lead in the 9th and one out and got Manny Ramirez to fly out to CF. James Loney hit a line drive to left that should have been caught by Matt Holliday for the 3rd out, but even with his drop, there was only a runner on second and two outs. But that error let the floodgates open. Casey Blake walked, Ronnie Belliard singled, Franklin threw a passed ball, Russell Martin walked, and then pinch hitter Mark Loretta got the game-winning single. Even after Holliday's drop, the Dodgers only had a 14% chance of winning, so Franklin deserves some of the blame here. The Cards would never recover en route to being swept by the Dodgers. Here are Franklin's stats for the regular season:



Angels vs. Red Sox, Game 3 - Jonathan Papelbon has been one of the best regular season and postseason pitchers in recent years and this year was no exception (he was 38 out of 41 on save opportunities). His 26 scoreless innings to start his career were the most since Christy Mathewson from 1905-1911. So when Papelbon entered a 5-2 game with four outs to go, it looked over. He allowed two inherited runners to score in the top of the 8th, but got out of it with a one-run lead. It looked over after the Red Sox added an insurance run in the bottom of the 8th to make it 6-4. It looked even more over when Papelbon got two quick outs and had an 0-2 count on Erick Aybar. The Angels had a 1% chance of winning that game. But then Aybar singled, Chone Figgins walked, Bobby Abreu doubled, Torii Hunter was intentionally walked (a boneheaded move in my opinion), and then Vladamir Guerrero made the Red Sox pay by knocking in two runs to make it a 7-6 game. The Red Sox would not be able to rally in the bottom of the 9th ending the series in front of a stunned Fenway crowd. Papelbon was booed off the field. Here was his statline for the regular season:



Phillies vs. Rockies, Game 4 - I detailed this one earlier today. Huston Street came in as one of the best closers in the game, enjoying one of his finest seasons. (35 out of 37 on save opportunities). Street had already suffered a loss in Game 3 so it wasn't like he was guaranteed to be lights out. But Street looked like he may be able to send this one back to Philly for a 5th game. He came on to get 3 outs with a 4-2 lead. He struck out pinch hitter Greg Dobbs swinging, and after Jimmy Rollins reached on an infield single, he got Shane Victorino to ground into a fielders choice. There were two outs, a two-run lead, and only a runner at first. The Phillies only had a 4% chance of winning the game. But then Chase Utley drew a huge walk and Ryan Howard followed with a booming double off the right field wall. He then had a 2-2 count on Jayson Werth before Werth #fisted one to CF for the game winner. Here's what Huston Street did in the regular season:



So my friends, this should make you appreciate Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, and, yes, even Brad Lidge a little more today. Sam Borden, Ken Davidoff, Joel Sherman, and Ken Rosenthal opine on the same subject.

Pretty remarkable stat from Davidoff (via the Elias Sports Bureau), in the 2009 division series, relievers converted on only a 53.8% success rate. In the 2009 regular season, relievers converted only a 67.2% success rate (this includes set-up men as well). Mariano Rivera has a 89.5% career mark and is 35-40 (87.5%) in the playoffs. I feel like that Mariano Rivera Fan Club should be growing even more.

Orioles Closers Can't Get Out The Yankees

After watching the Yankees tattoo Orioles new closer Jim Johnson (right) for 5 runs without recording an out today, I was thinking about all the Orioles closers in my lifetime who have faced the Yankees...and how NONE of them could ever get the Yankees out. So I tweeted:

@NoYoureATowel: I cannot remember an Orioles RP who was able to get Yankees out in my lifetime. It's really unbelievable what they've done against them.

At the exact same time, Yankees beat reporter for the New York Times, Tyler Kepner tweeted:

@TylerKepner: Who was the last good Orioles relief pitcher? Sammy Stewart? Year after year after year the Yankees just destroy their bullpen.

Well great minds think alike. The Baltimore closers really have been bad against the Yankees recently. Chris Ray is no longer the Orioles' closer and he still can't get out Yankees this year with an insane .609/.625/1.261 line this year with a 37.12 ERA and 5.625 WHIP. And, yes, I checked that line twice...it is an OPS against of 1.886. Jeez.

Here's a look back at the rest of the O's closers vs. the Yankees for a decade:

• 2008 - George Sherill - .375/.524/.563 against. 16.20 ERA, 3.300 WHIP

• 2007 - Chris Ray - .294/.429/.471 against. 11.25 ERA, 2.000 WHIP

• 2006 - Chris Ray - .296/.406/.630 against. 4.05 ERA, 1.950 WHIP

• 2005 - B.J. Ryan - .273/.400/.364 against. 6.23 ERA, 1.731 WHIP

• 2004 - Jorge Julio - .300/.464/.600 against. 7.20 ERA, 2.600 WHIP

• 2003 - Jorge Julio -.318/.444/.591 against. 6.75 ERA, 2.250 WHIP

• 2002 - Jorge Julio - .111/.167/.148 against. 0.00 ERA, 0.600 WHIP

• 2001 - Buddy Groom - .344/.344/.541 against. 6.43 ERA, 1.571 WHIP

• 2000 - Mike Timlin - .471/.500/.824 against. 14.73 ERA, 2.455 WHIP

• 1999 - Mike Timlin - .100/.182/.400 against. 2.70 ERA, 0.600 WHIP

• 1998 - Armando Benitez - 1.000/1.000/4.000 against. INF ERA, INF WHIP (that's right, he got no one out)

That's two good seasons in there and some ridiculous stinkers. Orioles closers really are AWFUL against the Yankees. The Yankees have dominated the Orioles the past decade, but part of the reason has to be how they've manhandled the back end of their bullpens.