Picking the Final 6 Spots on the Yankees Postseason Roster

Finally. Last night the Yankees clinched a playoff spot which guaranteed something many of us thought was guaranteed weeks ago: the Yankees will be playing postseason baseball yet again. But while the Yankees status in the postseason in certain, what is not as certain is who will be on that postseason roster. With the number of players dropping back down to 25, the Yankees will have to make some important decisions out of the 40 players they currently have on the roster.

Will Austin Kearns join Curtis Granderson on the playoff roster? (Star-Ledger)

As I see it, the Yankees have 19 players locked up. Position players who are locks: Francisco Cervelli, Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Marcus Thames and Lance Berkman. Pitchers who are locks: CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Kerry Wood, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan, and, of course, Mariano Rivera*.  So that leaves 6 spots to fill. Let's look at the pros and cons of each candidate.

*For the record, my postseason rotation would be Sabathia, Pettitte, Hughes and pray for rain. The Yankees seem like long shots to get home-field advantage and I rather Pettitte pitch on the road. I also rather lessen the amount of innings that Hughes will throw in the playoffs, if possible. I don't see an issue bringing back either of the lefties on short rest. And the Yankees have lined up their pitching to go like this so don't be surprised if this is the final verdict (Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus explains further and Larry of Yankeeist has even more). If they need a fourth starter (which the Yankees probably will), though...well, I'll explain later.

Austin Kearns

Why they should pick him: Kearns is the one veteran non-catcher the Yankees have and he has the versatility to play every outfield position. He has a little pop and is decent enough defensively that if someone were to go out, he could hold his own in a start. And with Nick Swisher's gimpy knee, Kearns starting is a forseeable event, especially since Joe Girardi would have to drink an entire case of Avion before he'd ever consider putting Marcus Thames in the outfield in a big spot.
 
Why he could be left off: Kearns has gotten on base at a decent enough clip for the Yankees (.360) but his power has been zapped (5 extra-base hits and 7 RBI in 111 PAs for a very rough 0.95 ISO). Kearns UZR numbers have gone down every season and this season he rates out a negative fielder meaning that he would be a backup who doesn't run or play the field exceptionally well. Since he hit a home run on August 22nd, he's hitting .185/.333/.185 with zero extra-base hits and one measly RBI--yet 3 GIDPs and 23 Ks. He also has a sore left elbow.

Verdict:

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Why Brian Bruney in the Bullpen is a BAD Idea

Listen, I know that it's tempting to have Brian Bruney in the bullpen. He was, by far, the best reliever on the Yankees early in the season. And, at times, he showed great stuff late in the season. But he is too inconsistent/stubborn to be trusted. He tries to throw everything through the wall which is great against the Baltimores and Torontos of the American League, but when you go up against a team like the Angels, it doesn't work as well.

But, courtesy of Keith Law, here's a much, much better reason why Bruney should be left off the ALCS roster:

Joe Girardi will be managing in his first postseason, and while the offense can probably manage itself, he does have a tendency to overthink his bullpen decisions, and I'm concerned he'll indulge his irrational attachment to Brian Bruney in a leveraged situation, or try to extend a specialist like Coke or Gaudin with superior options left in the 'pen. I know Bruney throws hard, Joe, but you can throw hard and still be terrible.

See: Farnsworth, Kyle.

At least with Marte he knows that he can't face righties (they absolutely murder him), but Joe has the idea that Bruney can get out anyone (he's given up 3 HR in 5 games pitched in Anaheim in his career...yikes!).

But Marte isn't good either. There is a myth that Marte was much better when he came off the DL late in the season. Although he was unscored upon in 2.1 innings in August, he had a 7.94 ERA in limited work in September/October. Yes, there is supposed value as a lefty specialist only because lefties hit .120/.214/.280 against him this season. But the two lefties he faced in the ALDS both got hits off of him and the only lefty in the Angels lineup is Bobby Abreu.

Side Note: Girardi may be tantalized by the small sample size of success he's had against some of the tougher Angels against the Yankees: in 30 PA, Torii Hunter, Chone Figgins, Gary Matthews and Abreu have amassed only two hits and 4 walks to 9 Ks. But this is exactly why a small sample size should never be used to make decisions like these. He also may be intrigued to turn Kendy Morales around but Marte gave it up to righties to a tune of .414/.485/.690 (Coke was at least a "manageable" .227/.346/.432 vs. righties). Don't be tempted Joe!

I think Joe should go with another set of legs off the bench (Freddy Guzman or Ramiro Pena), but if he has to go with a pitcher, he should go with Marte over Bruney just because he may be tempted to trust him a big too much when he has much better options in the bullpen.

Yankee Roster and Pitching Rotation Decisions

A few roster and rotation questions came out of today. From Joe Girardi:

“We are definitely considering going to a three-man rotation in this round.”

This makes a ton of sense to me. So does IIATMS. As Sam Borden explains:

Girardi pointed to the lighter workload that CC Sabathia faced in September, as well as the longer layoff he’s getting now since the Yankees swept the first round. Girardi said that the team would like to have plan in place for the rotation going into the series, as opposed to just waiting to see where the team stands when Game 4 rolls around. Remember, too, that because of off-days Sabathia could pitch Games 1, 4 and 7 and only have to pitch on short rest once instead of twice.

Steven Goldman's one hesitation is that CC has pitched a lot of innings so far this year (236.2 to be exact), but likes this plan as well considering the alternatives are Chad Gaudin or bringing Joba Chamberlain back from the bullpen. Here are Gaudin's stats vs. the Angels in his career:



His ERA balloons to 7.67 when he pitches in Anaheim (which Game 4 will be). Sabathia hasn't been great against his hometown team (to the tune of a 4.74 ERA) but I think you'll take your chances with him. You are paying him for games like these and while Gaudin is a nice pitcher, you have zero faith in him coming through in a big game on the road. Gaudin is not a strikeout pitcher (in the AL he has a career 6.5 K/9) which is a problem against a team that will try to run ragged against the Yankees. You need to pitch CC here too so you can bring him back for Game 7 as well. This is not as cut-and-dry as one would think (especially with only one lefty in the Angels lineup and Gaudin's strength against righties), but I think the Yankees need to go with their hefty ace.

As for the other roster decision, Tyler Kepner explains:

Girardi said, “I don’t expect a lot of changes at this point,” to the roster. From what I can tell, the only real possibility might be adding Brian Bruney and replacing Damaso Marte. The need for the left-handed Marte would seem to be small, since the Angels have only one pure left-handed hitter (Bobby Abreu).

There is a 3rd option: take Marte off the roster and put someone useful like Freddy Guzman or Ramiro Pena on. If the Yankees are going to use 3 starters, there's no reason you need 8 relievers on the roster. Yes, Kendy Morales hits better vs. righties and they do separate Abreu and Morales, but I'm not sure that you would bring in one of their lefty relievers. Especially not someone like Marte who couldn't get righties or lefties out this season.

Bruney makes some sense if Girardi really had any faith in him. But when do you use him? The Yankees have Rivera, Hughes, Joba, Robertson, Aceves, and probably Gaudin in front of Bruney on the righty reliever pecking order.

I say go with the speed. Either Ramiro Pena or Freddy Guzman would give them more speed off the bench. Then Girardi may feel more comfortable starting Brett Gardner in CF against John Lackey or Jered Weaver so that he doesn't have to keep Gardner on the bench for pinch running opportunities. It seems like he's still thinking of going with 3 catchers which I love as long as he will pinch hit for Molina and pinch run for Posada and Molina.

Girardi has a few days to make his decisions. It'll be interesting to see what he chooses.

The Final Yankees Postseason Roster for the ALDS

We debated and debated. In the end the Yankees decided to take 11 pitchers and leave speedster Freddy Guzman off the roster.

I don't particularly love this move. I know the Twins have a lot of lefties, but the division series is 5 games and the Yankees have a ton of off days so you really don't need that many pitchers. With Joba working as a short man out of the bullpen and able to get both righties and lefties, you figure that Joba, Hughes and Rivera will get a majority of the bullpen outs. You don't need 11 pitchers if that's the case.

What that does mean is that Chad Gaudin is on the postseason roster as the long man, Damaso Marte is the second lefty out of the bullpen, and Fransisco Cervelli made the postseason roster as the third catcher. But if you're going to take a third catcher, isn't the point of doing so so that you can pinch run? And if you are going to pinch run, don't you need a guy like Guzman on your bench?

It will be interesting to see if the omission of Guzman ends up burning the Yankees. If they end up bringing in Brett Gardner for defensive purposes or start him in center, this could a glaring omission for a team that will have the wheels of Jose Molina, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada on the bases late in games instead of Freddy Guzman.

Yankees Postseason Roster Updates

A few big things: From Tyler Kepner:

After C.C. Sabathia starts Game 1, A.J. Burnett will start Game 2 and Andy Pettitte will start Game 3. Sabathia would start a potential fourth game, Girardi added, and Burnett would start Game 5. Jose Molina will catch Burnett, Jorge Posada will catch the others, and Girardi said he expects Hideki Matsui to be the designated hitter.

“When a pitcher and a catcher get in a rhythm, you hate to break it up,” Girardi said of Burnett and Molina. “And that’s kind of the feeling that we have going now. Jorge is our No. 1 catcher. But in this situation, we just are going to choose to catch Molina.”

I am not surprised that he went with A.J. Burnett in Game 2, but I thought he'd wait and go with Pettitte in Game 2 if it was the Twins with all their lefties. However, I think this is the best move. A.J. is a run better at home and Andy is a run better on the road. Also, I like Verlander/Burnett a lot better; I think A.J. will feed off of that like he did against Josh Beckett not too long ago.

The Molina move isn't a surprise, but it's not exactly my favorite either. I do agree with Rob Neyer who says that if the Yankees truly believe that this will make Burnett even marginally better, this makes sense. The problem is going forward, as Steven Goldman points out, I'm not sure this is the best for the AJ/Jorge relationship and I don't think it's worth bringing Molina back just to catch AJ. IIATMS isn't too happy about it, and while you are taking ABs from a potential Hall of Famer, I think that on a small scale, it's not the worst thing ever. Though I have to admit that if the Tigers are in the ALDS, and the series goes 5, I won't be happy seeing Molina get 3 ABs vs. Justin Verlander.

The other piece of news?

As for the roster, Girardi seemed to indicate that the main question is whether to take a second left-hander or a second pinch-runner. Because the Twins have more of a left-leaning lineup, it seems to me as if Damaso Marte would make the roster if the Yankees play Minnesota. If they play Detroit, I would think the Yankees take the pinch-runner Freddy Guzman over Marte.

That would seem to mean that Fransico Cervelli seems to have made the roster. But Mark Feinsand seems to have heard differently:

Girardi said that 23 spots are settled, but he hasn't decided on taking a third catcher, second pinch-runner or second lefty in the bullpen. That means that either Francisco Cervelli, Freddy Guzman or Damaso Marte will be left off the roster.

So which is it? Sam Borden seems to have figured it out:

Reading between the lines, it seems like there are, at most, two roster spots still questionable. One would be Cervelli, though I’m pretty convinced that with Molina starting a game Girardi will want a third catcher. So count him in. The last spot, then, would seem to be between a lefty (likely Marte) and a second pinch-runner (Guzman). One would think that if the Twins win, the Yankees will take Marte since Minnesota has more lefties. If the Tigers win, Guzman makes it.

Brian Bruney, Ramiro Pena and Sergio Mitre were sent to Tampa to keep fresh. They changed the rules a few years back to allow substitutions for injuries within a series so all those guys are available. And the rosters can change between rounds so that would seem like a possibility with maybe taking 11 pitchers.

The two most unhappy people? Jorge Posada (who said “I just hope we win that game. That’s all I’ve got to say.”) and Brian Bruney (who said“I thought I did enough.”).

The Yankees don't have to finalize the roster until tomorrow.