NYaT Roundtable: Belated 2011 American League Picks

I know, I know, we're behind schedule, but on the first Saturday of the season, I felt it was a good time to make sure that I got up all of our baseball picks. I mean with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver back to ruining my baseball experience, I thought there would be no better time to distract me. We'll start with the American League with the National League hopefully coming tomorrow. Here's the NYaT picks, which come with a no-money-back guarantee (these were all done before Thursday):

NYaT bloggers think that A-Gone is the key for the Sox (CBS)

AL East

Ben W: Baseball's toughest division got tougher. No one team in the division can be taken lightly. Toronto has a young, but talented rotation. The Orioles should continue to improve as they did during the second-half of last year. The Rays also sport a young, but talented pitching staff. And then there are the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Red Sox clearly improved their offense and it is more than on par with the Yankees. I give the Red Sox the edge for the division because they are more established with their #2 starter. Red Sox.

Ben P: Maybe I'm a homer, but I think the Yankees are just as good as Boston. Both rotations have question marks, but I think the yanks have a deeper offense and a better bullpen, so I'll pick them to take it. The Sox will take the wild card. The Rays lost too much to compete at the same level but they still have a lot of youth and talent and will be hard to beat if their young pitching comes through. The Blue Jays and Orioles are also improved teams. It will be very hard for any team in this division to get 95 wins. Yankees.

Jay: Let's face it - Boston has a deeper starting rotation than New York. And they significantly upgraded their offense and defense by acquiring Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Meanwhile, the Rays lost too many weapons in the offseason and the Yankees have too many holes in their starting rotation -- Nova/Garcia/Colon aren't going to get it done in the Bronx. The Red Sox smell like division champs with a shot at 100 wins. Red Sox.

Alex O: Gotta start here. Boston improved and is getting healthy but they also have an older Papi, and their starters are no more of a sure thing than the Yankees. Yanks have some good young blood in Montero and Banuelos to keep the old guard energized. I think Jeter will have a year closer to 2009 than 2010, but still hope Girardi has the stones to bat him second and lead off Gardner. Comparing Yankees and Red Sox I think starters (slight edge to Sox) and bullpen (slight edge to Yanks with Soriano addition and Paps not what he once was) are a wash. I give the line-up edge to the Yankees since I think their 3-4-5 of Tex, Arod, and Cano are best in mlb. Defense is not enough of a factor to change my mind that my very biased opinion is that the Yankees will win the AL East. An interesting side show will be watching Manny and Damon deal with Tampa---- I root for the rays since my folks live in that neck of the Earth, and wish TB all the best. Yankees.

Andrew: This is the Red Sox division to lose. They still need to be healthy and to get their starting pitching in order, but they acquired two of the best players in baseball this off-season and bolstered an already very good bullpen. But fortunately for the Yankees and Rays, divisions aren't won in the off-season. Unfortunately for the Yankees and Rays, they both have huge question marks on their teams--the Yankees in the back of their rotation and the Rays in the middle of their lineup. The Orioles pitching stinks but their hitting should be just as good as anyone in the AL East (I love Adam Jones to have a huge year) and the Blue Jays have a good young nucleus (H/T G-C). Since they almost won it last year even with all their injuries, I still think that this is the Red Sox division. Red Sox.

AL Central

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NYaT Gives Out Our MLB Awards: American League

What a year 2010 has been. No-hitters, perfect games, great rookies, saying good-bye to veterans, and watching playoff races come down to the very last day of the season. Well now that it's all over and we're turning the calendar to playoff baseball, here we are at NYaT to hand out our postseason awards to who we think is most deserving (panel consisting of Ben W, Jay, Ben P, Ari, Elissa, and myself). First up, the American League:

Hamilton looks to take home the AL MVP (Cleveland Plain-Dealer)

American League MVP: Josh Hamilton.  
Followed by: Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria.

Despite missing nearly all of September, Hamilton wins this award in a run-away. He got 4 out of 5 first place votes (Ben P put Robinson Cano ahead of Hamilton) and took home our crown. Hamilton had a very similar season to Joe Mauer's 2009 MVP season and although Robinson Cano and Miguel Cabrera were very, very good, Hamilton was better. The Rangers went 21-6 in June and Hamilton hit .454/.482/.815 for the month with 9 HR and 31 RBI. MVP material, indeed. This was a tough race to pick, though, with many good candidates not even listed such as Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista and Carl Crawford. But Cano, Cabrera and Longoria were the only competition that Hamilton really did have for this race.

American League LVP: Chone Figgins.  
Followed by: Brandon Wood, and a tie for third between A.J. Burnett, Mike Cameron, Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell (Aaron Hill, Carlos Pena, Franklin Gutierrez, Garrett Atkins, and Matt Wieters also receiving votes).

It was a relatively close race between Figgins and fellow-AL West disappointment Brandon Wood, but Figgins huge contract gets him the "win" here. It really wasn't all Figgins' fault, but after being the one offensive free agent signing, he gets the blame which could have gone to Jose Lopez, Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, or the rest of the Mariners historically anemic offense (minus Ichiro). Figgins was far from the worst, but a .259/.340/.306 line and highly negative UZR was far from what the Mariners were expecting when they gave him 4 years, $36 million (with an easily vesting option for another year). FanGraphs put Figgins worth at 0.5 WAR while Baseball-Reference was a lot more generous at 1.3 WAR. Either way, it's part of the reason that the Mariners have cleaned house in the clubhouse and have started to change around front-office personnel as well.

American League Cy Young: Felix Hernandez.  
Followed by: CC Sabathia and David Price (Jon Lester also receiving a vote).

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Stretch Drive Previews: The AL East

As we get closer to September--and therefore closer to the playoffs--we'll start off a series of previews of each division and the races going on in them. I'll then have 5 key questions to pose to our panel where they'll give their "expert" opinions on what will occur from here on out. Let's start off our preview with the American League East, a division which will most probably get the American League's Wild Card as well (Chicago is the closest team and they're 9.5 back with two AL East teams in front of them):

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	GBsum	Strk	R	RA	Rdiff	pythWL	Home	Road	1Run	last10	last20	last30
1	TBR	77	48	.616	---		W 3	5.0	3.8	1.2	78-47	39-24	38-24	22-22	8-2	11-9	20-10
2	NYY	77	48	.616	---		L 1	5.3	4.0	1.3	78-47	42-22	35-26	13-12	6-4	11-9	16-14
3	BOS	72	54	.571	5.5	11.0	W 3	5.1	4.6	0.5	69-57	39-25	33-29	21-20	6-4	12-8	18-12
4	TOR	65	59	.524	11.5	29.0	W 1	4.7	4.3	0.4	67-57	32-24	33-35	17-24	5-5	11-9	17-13
5	BAL	44	81	.352	33.0	115.0	L 1	3.7	5.2	-1.5	44-81	27-38	17-43	22-18	4-6	12-8	14-16
	Avg	67	58	.536				4.8	4.4		67-57	35-26	31-31	19-19	5-4	11-8	17-13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2010.

Tampa Bay Rays (56.1% chance at winning the division, 37.8% chance at winning the Wild Card, 93.9% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com)

The Rays are expected to win 99 games according to coolstandings.com which is the highest mark in the American League. Their slightly higher ranking is due to the fact they have an easier schedule down the stretch. They do have quite a few games left against the tough AL East, but outside of the division, they play 5 more against the Angels (who have all but given up), 3 against the Mariners, and 3 against the Royals to close out the season. The Rays overall have the 24th best batting average in the AL (.251), the 7th best wOBA (.331), the 4th lowest FIP (4.05), and the 6th best ERA (3.60). The hitting and pitching strengths are spread out: Carl Crawford leads in average and runs, Evan Longoria in RBI and OPS and Carlos Pena in HR, while David Price leads in Wins and ERA, James Shields in K, and Jeff Niemann in WHIP. Jay says "Tampa Bay will go as far as their starting pitching will take them. They are a major World Series threat."

The Rays biggest asset is their depth. When they had injuries this year, they were able to call up guys like Reid Birgnac, Matt Joyce, and Jeremy Hellickson and not missed a beat. And they still have a ton of firepower down on the farm with top prospect Desmond Jennings and, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, an extremely hard-throwing lefty Jake McGee who could be this season's David Price. And while their bullpen has been their bugaboo in the past, Joaquin Benoit (12.24 K/9, 7.00 K/BB, 1.36 ERA, 22 holds) and Rafael Soriano (38 saves, 1.79 ERA, 4.40 K/BB) have been rock-solid at the back-end. The Rays 3.57 bullpen FIP is the best mark in the league according to FanGraphs (and their 3.29 ERA is 2nd). The biggest question surrounding the Rays are if they'll take on the contract of the extra bat they seem to need to push them over the top (especially if that hitter's name is Manny Ramirez). The Rays and Yankees will determine who wins a tiebreaker with 7 games in the middle of September and a vengeful Manny may be just the thing the Rays lineup needs to put it over the top. And after Deadspin leaked some financial data that Tampa would not want their fans to know, the gesture of spending money at this juncture to put them over the top would be a smart thing to do.

New York Yankees (42.1 % chance at division, 49.4% chance at wild card, 91.5% chance at playoffs)

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My All-Star Team: The Best of the Rest

We tried to fill out the rosters for the All-Star Game. I picked the hitters from the American League, the hitters from the National League, and the American League pitchers, and the National League pitchers, but still we had 5 teams without a representative. And since Major League Baseball has a silly rule that every team has to have a representative, we'll comply as well by listing the best of the rest from the 5 teams without a clear All-Star:

Baltimore Orioles: Ty Wigginton got an honorable mention at 2nd base for us and in a year of infield injuries (especially with Dustin Pedroia down), he may be a good a pick as any from the struggling Os. His .262/.347/.473 line with a .356 wOBA doesn't scream out "All Star", but 14 HR and 42 RBIs may put him over the hump. This is not a good team and it shows that a guy with a WAR of 0.7 is their best candidate for the All-Star Game. ESPN also goes with Wigginton. Counting Stats: .262 avg, 30 runs, 14 HR, 42 RBI. Photo from SNY

Honorable Mentions: Luke Scott (.274/.348/.520, .376 wOBA, 12 HR, 30 RBI) could certainly slot in as an OF/DH type on the team as well, though there are plenty of good candidates for the role and Scott just hit the DL. Brian Matusz is about as close as the Os come to having a pitching candidate but although it's a good start for the rookie, 2-9 with a 4.90 ERA isn't enough to play in the Mid-Summer Classic. Nick Markakis leads the team with a WAR of 1.7 and his slash line looks great at .303/.399/.425, but with only 3 HR and 24 RBI, he's going to have a hard time beating out a lot of good candidates in the OF.

Cleveland Indians: With Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and CC Sabathia traded away and Grady Sizemore hurt, the Tribe is without most of their most reliable all- candidates but that doesn't mean that Shin-Soo Choo doesn't deserve to play in the All-Star Game. Choo's .289/.391/.480 line, 13 HR, 12 SB, and good defense add up to a 3.1 WAR so far which is certainly All-Star material (the only OFs in baseball with a higher WAR are Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday, and Alex Rios). ESPN and The Cleveland Plain Dealer agree with my Choo suggestion. Counting Stats: .281 avg, 47 runs, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 12 SB. Picture from The Cleveland Plain Dealer

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My All-Star Team: American League Hitters

The Major League Baseball All-Star Game in baseball is probably not a game that should count and sometimes the fans seem to get the wrong players elected--but then again, that doesn't make it different than any other form of democracy. And sometimes, people certainly get picked for the wrong reasons as The Common Man showed  last week. In the end, the Mid-Summer Classic is all about being an exhibition of baseball's best players. So I'm going to take only the best players, rule-about-taking-one-player-per-team be damned! Here's my list of the best candidates for the All-Star Game starting with the AL guys who will be swinging the bat (all stats min 100 PAs):

Catcher: Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, and Joe Mauer. Mauer is the leading vote getter for all of Major League Baseball so he's in without a doubt. But if you were picking a player on pure stats, this wouldn't be the year to take Mauer at first glance (his numbers perfectly mirror his 2007 output). But when you drill down, Mauer has still had a pretty great season and is worth of an All-Star nod. Although not as adept defensively, Posada and Martinez may beat Mauer with the bat this year. Although he's been battling injuries (and therefore spent quite a bit of time at DH as well as only racked up 171 PAs), Posada leads all the catchers in OPS (slash lines of .287/.398/.538) and wOBA (.406 to Martinez's .363 and Mauer's .356). Martinez leads all catchers with 29 XBH so far this season. Amazingly (considering his lack of speed), one stat that favors Jorge this season is GIDP: Mauer has 14, Martinez 9 and Posada 1. "Counting" stats: Mauer .304 avg, 3 HR, 21 RBI; Martinez .291 avg, 9 HR, 37 RBI; Posada .287 avg, 9 HR, 25 RBI. Honorable Mentions: John Buck (.271/.309/.532, .356 wOBA, 12 HR, 38 RBI) and Mike Napoli (.251/.329/.478, .354 wOBA, 11 HR, 27 RBI). Picture from The Star-Ledger.

Firstbase: Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera and Kevin Youkilis. All three players are having monster years and all three are early candidates for MVP. Morneau's numbers are off the charts (almost Mauer like) with a ridiculous slash line of .340/.448/.622 and a wOBA of .452 to go along with 15 HR and 47 RBI. That wOBA is the highest (among all players who have qualified for the batting title) in the Majors. Second is Youk (.440) and third is Cabrera (.437). Mourneau's OPS of 1.070 leads all 1Bs trailed by Cabrera (1.041) and Youkilis (1.026). The WAR numbers tell the difference thus far though. Due to extremely positive fielding numbers, Morneau takes the lead with 4.3, Youkilis is seen about even and Cabrera is marked down for his defense. Cabrera leads in the counting stats while Youkilis has been hitting the tar out of the ball recently for the surging Red Sox. Morneau has the lead and should start but the other two should be named replacements on the team. Counting stats: Morneau .340 avg, 15 HR, 47 RBI; Cabrera .328 avg, 19 HR, 60 RBI; Youkilis .312 avg, 14 HR, 47 RBI. Honorable Mentions: Paul Konerko (.296/.396/.574, 17 HR, 51 RBI, .413 wOBA) and Billy Butler (.330/.383/.491, 7 HR, 37 RBI, .381 wOBA). Picture from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution

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Pitching in the American League East

When one thinks of the AL East, they think of slugging teams and tough ballparks for pitchers to pitch. They think of sluggers like Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis and Big Papi, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, and, more recently, guys like Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, Nick Markakis and even Luke Scott. What they don't think of usually is pitching, however. But exactly 1/3 into the season, the AL East is producing all the Cy Young candidates for the American League.

ESPN.com produces a Cy Young Predictor based on The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. Although with advanced pitching metrics, these basic statistics have been less important to some voters in recent years, it still gives a good idea of who is performing at a high level on the season. I posted below the current rankings for the American League pitchers. Since Victory Bonus (VB) is something that is only really applied at the end of the season, I will take away a prorated 3 from Neftali Feliz meaning that the top 9 candidates in the American League are from the AL East.

2010 Cy Young Predictor - AL
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	CYP	G	GS	IP	ER	K	SV	SHO	W-L	ERA	VB
1	David Price	TB	71.9	11	11	74.2	19	53	0	1	8-2	2.29	0
2	Phil Hughes	NYY	62.7	10	10	63.2	18	64	0	0	7-1	2.54	0
3	Andy Pettitte	NYY	61.7	10	10	65.1	18	41	0	0	7-1	2.48	0
4	Rafael Soriano	TB	59.5	23	0	22.1	4	19	15	0	2-0	1.61	0
5	Clay Buchholz	BOS	55.7	10	10	62.2	19	47	0	0	7-3	2.73	0
6	Jon Lester	BOS	54.8	11	11	72.2	24	77	0	0	6-2	2.97	0
7	Shaun Marcum	TOR	51.4	12	12	81.1	25	62	0	0	5-2	2.77	0
8	Jeff Niemann	TB	51.2	11	11	71.0	22	45	0	0	5-0	2.79	0
9	Neftali Feliz	TEX	50.5	25	0	25.1	8	26	14	0	1-1	2.84	3
10	A.J. Burnett	NYY	50.1	11	11	71.1	26	53	0	0	6-2	3.28	0

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If You Needed Another Reason to Root for Javy Vazquez...

...you got it. Curt Schilling has opened his big mouth again and hopefully it lights a fire under Javy Vazquez and brings Yankee fans together to rally around this guy. Schilling, who is never one to shy away from expressing his opinions, did just that yesterday on "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" according to ESPN New York:

"I never ever thought the move to New York the first time was a good one [for Vazquez]. And I didn't think this [move] was good as well," Schilling said. "I don't think he suddenly learned how to pitch when he went back to Atlanta and dealt last year. He's a phenomenal National League pitcher. It's hard to say this without sounding disrespectful and I don't mean it that way -- the National League is an easier league to pitch in, period. And some guys aren't equipped to get those same outs in the American League, and he's one of those guys."

He's not done yet, either. Schilling also said on the radio show that he doesn't think Vazquez is comfortable with the media glare that comes with playing in New York.

"[Vazquez] thrived in Montreal and he thrived in Atlanta, and those are both second-tier cities from a baseball passion perspective. He's not a guy that I've ever felt was comfortable in the glow," Schilling said. "You're seeing what you're gonna get from him consistently all year. Having said that, he could turn around next week and throw a one-hitter with his stuff. I just don't see him being a consistent winner in the American League."

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Let's Take A Look At The Standings

I just want to savor it for a moment, thanks:

American League
AMERICAN	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	RS	RA	DIFF	STRK	L10
NY Yankees	65	42	.607	-	35-17	30-25	594	517	+77	Won 3	6-4
LA Angels	63	42	.600	1	32-20	31-22	596	523	+73	Lost 2	6-4
Boston	62	44	.585	2.5	35-17	27-27	554	462	+92	Lost 2	5-5
Texas	59	47	.557	5.5	37-21	22-26	506	470	+36	Lost 3	5-5
Tampa Bay	60	48	.556	5.5	36-18	24-30	564	479	+85	Won 3	6-4
Detroit	56	50	.528	8.5	33-17	23-33	488	470	+18	Won 1	4-6
Seattle	56	51	.523	9	27-22	29-29	423	464	-41	Won 2	5-5
Chicago Sox	56	52	.519	9.5	32-24	24-28	503	486	+17	Won 2	6-4
Minnesota	53	54	.495	12	31-23	22-31	522	520	+2	Lost 1	5-5

It can all change pretty quickly, but you have to be happy as a Yankees that the Yankees are returning from their road trip with the best record in the American League, a 2.5 game lead on Boston for the AL East and a 5.5 game lead on Texas for a playoff spot.

I only listed these teams because I think that after all the jockeying, these are the 9 teams that have a chance of playing in October. 3 in the East, 3 in the Central, and 3 in the West. And I think you can go ahead and cross Seattle off the list after trading Jarrod Washburn and sporting a very ugly -41 run differential and Minnesota off the list after the Tigers went out and got Washburn, the ChiSox went out and got Jake Peavy and Minnesota sat on their hands for the most part (Orlando Cabrera was their big acqusition).

So do that and you have 7 teams for 4 spots. The Yankees winning 3 out of 4 against the Red Sox this weekend would go a long way towards helping their attempt to be one of those 4 teams to play in October.

This Is Baseball: Work Quickly, Throw Strikes, and You'll Win

Sergio Mitre got his last major league win before tonight on July 29, 2007.

Chien-Ming Wang also won that day and racked up 21 wins between that day and when he was lost for the season about a year later.

Wang, a sinkerballer, has one win on the 2009 season

Mitre, a sinkerballer, has one win on the 2009 season

Mitre wasn't great but he worked quickly, he threw strikes and he won. Mitre threw first pitch strikes to 15-25 hitters he faced, walked one and struck out 4. He allowed the other team to hit the ball and got 10 ground ball outs to three fly ball outs.

He wasn't great. But with this Yankees team behind him, he didn't need to be. But he gave them a quality 5+ innings and he gave them a chance to win.

And that's all you can ask.

The Yankees now have a five game winning streak going and have clinched another series win. They're now one game up on the Red Sox, winners of 18 of their last 23 (21-23 minus the Angels) and 19 games over .500 for the first time since the last day of the 2007 season.

Not to shabby from a team that's gotten one win from Chien-Ming Wang.

Former Mets Dominating the American League

From Peter Gammons:

As of this weekend, Jason Bay and Nelson Cruz are 1-2 among American League outfielders in homers and extra-base hits, and seemingly certain to make the All-Star team. Talk about scenic routes:

Nelson Cruz

• 1998: Signed by Mets as undrafted free agent
• 2000: Traded from Mets to A's for Jorge Velandia
• 2004: Traded from A's to Brewers for Keith Ginter
• 2006: Traded by Brewers with Carlos Lee to Texas for Francisco Cordero and Kevin Mench
• 2008: Cleared waivers at the end of spring training, accepted demotion to Triple-A

Jason Bay

• 2000: Drafted in 22nd round by Montreal Expos
• 2002: Traded by Expos to Mets for Lou Collier
• 2002: Traded by Mets to Padres for Steve Reed
• 2003: Traded by Padres to Pirates with Oliver Perez for Brian Giles
• 2008: Traded by Pirates to Red Sox for Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris

Amazingly, both of these guys were in the Mets system. In 3 seasons with the Mets, Velandia's line looked like .149/.281/.216. And Steve Reed pitched well in 24 games with the Mets, but left as a free agent when the season was over. The Mets weren't the only team who passed on those two players, but they sure could use them this season. Here is the homerun output of the Mets corner OFs this season:

  Cnt Player            **HR** Year Age Tm  Lg  G   PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  Positions
+----+-----------------+------+----+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+
   1 Gary Sheffield       5   2009  40 NYM NL  46 137 112  26  29  5  1  20  24   2  19   1   0   0   3   2  1  .259  .394  .455  .849 79       
    2 Daniel Murphy        4   2009  24 NYM NL  51 174 150  21  36  5  1  18  19   1  15   0   3   2   2   1  1  .240  .322  .367  .689 *73      
    3 Ryan Church          1   2009  30 NYM NL  39 138 125   9  34  7  0   8  10   3  18   1   1   1   5   2  1  .272  .328  .352  .680 *9       
    4 Fernando Martinez    0   2009  20 NYM NL   9  35  30   3   6  3  0   4   4   0   4   1   0   0   0   2  0  .200  .314  .300  .614 /*97     
    5 Emil Brown           0   2009  34 NYM NL   3   6   5   0   1  0  0   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0  0  .200  .333  .200  .533 /9       
    6 Jeremy Reed          0   2009  28 NYM NL  47  63  60   5  19  3  1   3   3   1  15   0   0   0   1   0  1  .317  .349  .400  .749 *7/839   
    7 Angel Pagan          0   2009  27 NYM NL  14  51  42   7  14  3  0   3   7   0   9   0   2   0   2   4  0  .333  .429  .405  .834 /978     

The Last Time the Yankees Were In 1st This Late In the Season Was...

...2006

Wow.

It's been a long time. Let's hope they can stay here. They now have three games against the second-worst team in the American League, the Cleveland Indians (despite having won three straight). Keep the momentum alive, boys!