So where does this leave us? Let's take a look
Los Angeles Dodgers:
This is their year!
- They had the best run differential in the majors during the regular season, 58 runs better than the Phillies. They have good starting pitcher, good relief, and a steady closer (and Jonathan Broxton is still the best closer in this series). They have some top hitters mixed with timely hitting. They have Joe Torre. They have the memory of their stinging loss last year. It's the perfect combination for a championship.
- The Dodgers swept the first round of the playoffs with superb pitching. Their 2.00 ERA was second only to the Yankees in the Division Series. If you're going to beat the Phillies, you need good pitching.
- Andre Eithier is the one-man walk-off machine and he had 6 hits, including 4 XBH and 2 HR, and five runs scored in the division series (so Eithier scored one less run than the entire Cards team in the first round). Matt Kemp is probably the best center fielder left in the playoffs (if not in baseball as a whole) and he also went deep in the division series. And Manny Ramirez is starting to heat up with 4 hits in the division series, and 3 of those being extra base hits. If Manny hits like the Manny of the past, that's a sick outfield, especially with Rafael Furcal (.500 batting average) heating up and setting the table for them.
- Home-field advantage is huge. Every team with home-field advantage advanced in the first round and the Dodgers project much better in the pitcher's haven in LA than the bandbox in Philly. The Dodgers are 5 games better at home.
- The Dodgers are starting the third youngest pitcher ever to start a Game 1 when they'll throw Clayton Kershaw on the mound. The last time someone this young started Game 1 was Rick Ankiel and we see how well that ended up. Vicente Padilla, Hiroki Kuroda and Randy Wolf will follow. That means Chad Billingsly, the Dodgers leader in wins with 12, will be pitching out of the bullpen. I have to say that pitching staff doesn't scare me one bit.
- The Dodgers bullpen is not as good as one may think. As Baseball-Reference points out, Dodgers relievers appeared in the 4th most games this year. While this is typical of a Joe Torre bullpen, it doesn't necessarily bode well for success. But much more unsettling is this: the Dodgers had 26 blown saves, 3rd worst in baseball and only converted on 63% of save opportunities. As we saw in the first round, that type of percentage can kill a playoff run.
First NL team to repeat since the Big Red Machine!
- Cliff Lee is dominating and is the type of pitcher who could carry the Phillies (a la Cole Hamels last year).
- They are the champs and until someone dethrones them, they are still the champs. They play with the experience of having been there and the knowledge that they can overcome obstacles. This is no small feat.
- The Phillies are actually a slightly better road team so the lack of home-field advantage may not phase them. Plus, they have the added bonus of having beaten the Dodgers in last years playoffs.
- The Phillies are one of the best baserunning teams in the majors according to Baseball Prospectus (and we saw in the division series how important good baserunning is) and are led by Chase Utley, who happens to be one of the most underrated players in the majors. He is a phenomenal defensive player (UZR only slightly behind Major League Leader Placido Polanco for tops among second basemen) and his WAR, according to FanGraphs, was 4th in the majors, higher than Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria or anyone left in the playoffs.
- Brad Lidge saved 2 games in the ALDS. It wasn't pretty, but between Lidge, Ryan Madson, Scott Eyre and the rest of the bullpen, Charlie Manuel has found a way to mix-and-match and get important outs.
- The Phillies can beat you with their bats and they're never out of a game because of it. 1-7 scares you in that lineup which is tough for an opposing batter to deal with. When Jayson Werth is among 4 different 30-HR guys in the middle of the lineup, you know that lineup will be tough to deal with. I don't see scoring runs as being a problem for this Phillies team, especially for those 3 games played in Philadelphia.
- Cliff Lee pitched in Game 4 of the ALDS so he can only go in Games 3 and 7. Not having him go three times may hurt the Phillies. That means they're throwing Pedro Martinez in Game 2. Yup...
- Don't fool yourself: this Phillies bullpen is terrible. The Phillies got lucky saving games and if not for an offensive outburst in the 9th inning of Game 4, they would have lost that game behind a Ryan Madson blown save.
- The Phillies were one good managerial decision (where is Joe Beimel in the 9th against Ryan Howard?) or one good umpiring call (I love Chase Utley, but that call was bad) away from going to the brink against Colorado. They're facing a team that swept their first round series handily. I don't know which team that will hurt, but it allows to continue to question how good the Phillies really are.
Key Phillies Pitchers:
Key Dodgers Pitchers:
Key Phillies Hitters:
Key Dodgers Hitters:
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