Robinson Cano: The Next Carlos Baerga or the Next Yogi Berra?

According to Baseball-Reference, only Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Ben Chapman, Derek Jeter, Don Mattingly, and Lou Gerhig have more hits at age 26 than Robinson Cano and only DiMaggio and Gerhig had more doubles (also according to B-R). Cano came out of no place to have a great start to his career. So where does Cano go from here? Baseball-Reference lists the most similar players and I found it interesting to see Carlos Baerga and Yogi Berra's name both on there.

Through age 26, Carlos Baerga was a rising star in baseball. He had been named to three All Star Games, had four .300 seasons in a row, and posted two 100-RBI seasons. Then, in 1996, he struggled in the first half, was traded to the Mets, and was never a productive player again. Baerga's biggest problem? Lack of patience at the plate. He walked over 35 times once in his career and that was at age 22.

Yogi Berra was a very good hitter in his first few seasons but in his fourth season, at age 25, he took a huge leap thanks to a .388 OBP and never looked back. Yogi would never be a big walk guy (his highest total was 65), but he continued to develop as a hitter while Baerga seemed to regress.

Let's look at the stat comparison of Cano, Baerga, and Berra and add in Joe Mauer and Derek Jeter to the mix:

Stats through age 25

Player         From  To Yrs   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
+--------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+
Robinson Cano  2005-2008  4  573  2218  303  671 151  15  62  309   99  272  .303  .335  .468  109
Joe Mauer      2004-2008  5  561  2059  325  653 128  14  44  301  292  233  .317  .399  .457  128
Carlos Baerga  1990-1994  5  684  2628  404  796 137  13  78  415  143  320  .303  .342  .454  116
Yogi Berra     1946-1950  5  482  1796  289  540  90  21  75  371  116   74  .301  .347  .499  123
Derek Jeter    1995-1999  5  638  2537  486  807 122  31  63  341  273  473  .318  .389  .465  121

The averages are all around the same, but Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer lead in OBP while Cano and Berra lead in slugging. I took out stolen bases because Jeter's the only one here who really relies on speed. But when you put them together, they all have their plusses and minuses. To be fair, age 25 was a down year for Robby. So let's see how they bounced back.

Stats through age 26

Player         From  To Yrs   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
+--------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+----+
Robinson Cano  2005-2009  5  731  2846  406  873 199  17  87  394  129  334  .307  .339  .480  113
Joe Mauer      2004-2009  6  694  2564  414  838 157  15  72  394  361  293  .327  .407  .484  138
Carlos Baerga  1990-1995  6  819  3185  491  971 165  15  93  505  178  351  .305  .345  .454  115
Yogi Berra     1946-1951  6  623  2343  381  701 109  25 102  459  160   94  .299  .348  .498  125
Derek Jeter    1995-2000  6  786  3130  605 1008 153  35  78  414  341  572  .322  .394  .468  122

So this includes the year that Mauer and Cano are now finishing up. As you can see, Mauer is definitely better than Cano and so is Jeter (though Cano had more power), but Berra and Baerga are right there. Let's see what happened the next year for those bottom 3.

Stats through age 27 (with the exception of Mauer and Cano who are not yet 27)

Player         From  To Yrs   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
+--------------+---------+--+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+

Robinson Cano  2005-2009  5  731  2846  406  873 199  17  87  394  129  334  .307  .339  .480  113
Joe Mauer      2004-2009  6  694  2564  414  838 157  15  72  394  361  293  .327  .407  .484  138
Carlos Baerga  1990-1996  7  945  3692  550 1100 193  15 105  571  199  378  .298  .338  .444  108
Yogi Berra     1946-1952  7  765  2877  478  847 126  26 132  557  226  118  .294  .350  .494  127
Derek Jeter    1995-2001  7  936  3744  715 1199 188  38  99  488  397  671  .320  .392  .470  122

And this is where you can separate the men from the boys. Can Cano take that next step next year? This year he's cut down on the strikeouts and some of the poor decision-making at the plate, but his walks have no risen. Part of that is due to hitting in such a potent lineup, but his anxiety and failures with runners in scoring position has done nothing to help that out.

Still, he had his first 200-hit season this year and looks much more comfortable at the plate (and in the field as well). With no one on base, his slashes of .379/.410/.615 are very good. Also good for Robby, he's improved his ratios a lot: his HR%, XBH%, X/H%, AB/SO, LD%, and HR/FB have all gone up and his SO%, SO/BB, AB/HR, and GB/FB have all gone down. Even his BB% is higher than last year, albeit less than his high in 2007.

The key will be to continue on this positive path with much better walk rates and with better numbers with RISP (and if he's motivated, it seems Cano can continue to improve). If Cano can take that next step, he may still not be Yogi Berra (or Joe Mauer or Derek Jeter), and we may not be talking about him as a great all-time Yankee...but at least he won't become the Next Carlos Baerga.