Should Yankees Fans Root For the Twins or the Tigers?

So you're sitting there tonight as a Yankee fan watching the Twins play the Tigers in a one-game tiebreaker playoff. You know the history of one-game playoffs and know that the team coming in will have to play back-to-back days (the Yankees, although they haven't announced it formally, will choose the series that starts Wednesday). You don't really want to root for either team, because you've gotten burned in the past rooting for a team to face, but you want to have at least a preference tonight. So who should you root for as Yankees Stadium awaits its opponent (picture from Sam Borden on the right)? Let's look at the pros and cons of each match-up:

Detroit Tigers
Let's face them!

• They blew a 3 game lead with 4 to play, and they were up seven games on September 6th...so this team is falling and falling fast.

• Miguel Cabrera, the most valuable player for the Tigers, decided it was more important to get drunk and party with the White Sox players until all hours of the morning while his team was fighting for a playoff spot. Then he came home at 5 AM 3 times over the legal limit for driving, woke up his child and his wife, got into a physical altercation with his wife (complete with some nice scratches), and had to go to the police station because he was "very uncooperative and highly intoxicated". What did he do the next two days, the two most important days for the Tigers? He went 0-4 and left four runners on base in the first game and went 0-3 in the last game. That's not being an MVP. Say what you want about A-Rod, but he'd never do this. The Detroit Free Press has more details and Shysterball talks more about the fact this is his second police incident in about a month.

• Remember Edwin Jackson pre-All-Star Game? Well that's not the same guy you're getting post-All-Star Game. The Yankees beat him in his first start after the break and the team was 7-8 when he started in the second half. Including that start, Jackson was 6-5 with a 5.07 ERA, giving up well over a hit an inning, his WHIP ballooned to 1.527, he struck out a batter less per 9 innings (down to 6.2 K/9), and his SO/BB went from 2.77 to 1.83. His OPS against jumped to .856 (.290/.356/.500) from a .617 (.212/.272/.345) first-half mark. And he got worse as the season came to its close going 1-3 with a 6.68 ERA in his last 28 days, 0-2 with a 9.75 ERA in his last 14 days, and 0-1 with a 14.40 ERA in his last week.

• Justin Verlander's one postseason start against the Yankees: ND, 5.1 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 1 HR, 4 BB and 5 SO. Overall that postseason (his only one) he was 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.662 WHIP.

• The Detroit Tigers were outscored this season. Yes, that's correct: they gave up more runs than they scored.
  

Keep us away from the Tigers!

• This is the EXACT same scenario as 2006. The Yankees came in a tremendously hot team, the favorites of whoever they faced in the first round. And then it seemed the Tigers fell into their lap, faltering greatly down the stretch, blowing the division, but making the playoffs. Jim Leyland was the manager then, too and he got them up for playing the Yankees as they took the ALDS in 4 games behind superior pitching. Déjà vu? Could be

• Justin Verlander will go twice in this series on full rest, including a potential Game 5 start. He was a rookie in 2006, so we may be able to throw out his lack of success that year. This year he's again a top-5 pitcher in the American League and will get quite a few Cy Young votes (Cy Young Predictor has him 3rd) after leading the league in wins (tied for first), starts, IP, K, BF, and K/9. This is not the guy you want to face in an elimination game. Also, another wrinkle is that it was revealed today that Jose Molina will catch AJ Burnett in the playoffs. This means you may have a Game 2 and Game 5 with Jose Molina facing Justin Verlander in big spots instead of Jorge Posada...not good.
  

• Overall, the Tigers' starting pitching is very solid and starting pitching is what wins playoff games. If Rick Porcello is able to win tonight, that will give him added confidence going into the playoffs.

Minnesota Twins
Let's get the Twinkies!

• The Yankees are 7-0 against the Twins this year (they are 5-1 against the Tigers). The last time they were 7-0 against them was 2003 and they beat them in the first round in 4 games that year. They also beat them in 4 games in 2004, the last playoff series they won. Since 2001, they haven't lost a season series with the Twins. The Yankees seem to have their number.

• This team was 70-72 on September 12th after dropping the first two games against Oakland. They would go 16-4 the rest of the season, but they did play an above .500 team (except for the failing Detroit) along the way.

• The Yankees had three straight walk-off wins against the Twins. Joe Nathan blew the May 15th game, A-Rod hit a walk-off HR, and then Johnny Damon ended the third game. Sabathia pitched 7 innings of 3-hit ball against them and A.J. Burnett won the next night. In 285 PAs against the Twins, the Yankees put up a .300/.380/.490 line with 10 HR
  

• Justin Morneau, the 2006 AL MVP and last year's runner up, will not play vs. the Yankees. The Twins have gotten by without him so far, but can they really continue to produce offensively without him in the lineup?

• The starting pitchers for the Twins are Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano, Jeff Manship. Do any of those names scare you?

• How about this for a 3-4 combination. Mark Teixeira against the Twins this season: .483/.531/.966 with 4 HR (and 11 RBIs). Alex Rordiguez against the Twins this season: .286/.484/.714 with 3 HR (and 8 BBs). That's dangerous.

Let's stay away from Minnesota!

• The Twins have an unbelievable home-field advantage, especially in the last year of the Baggie Dome. That will not be an easy place to go on the road and play.

• Joe Mauer is the AL MVP and maybe the best player in baseball. If one player could beat you, he would be the guy. They also have Joe Nathan who besides Mariano Rivera may be the best closer in baseball. He's much better than anyone the Tigers would throw out of their bullpen.
  

• The Twins went 16-4 to get to this point and would have to win a one-game tiebreaker playoff to get in with a rag-tag bunch of guys. This seems eerily similar to the Colorado Rockies team of 2007. Watch out for teams with that much momentum as they can keep it going into October.

• Minnesota has a large lefty-hitting lineup which could be troublesome in the New Yankees Stadium where many a ball has flown out to right...especially when the winds pick up again in October.

So who do you want to win tonight? Twins or Tigers? The Yankees are 12-1 combined against the two teams and an amazing 25-9 vs the Central this season so they should beat either one. Since tomorrow's game starts at 6:07, either team will have to play again in less than 24 hours so they'll come in with a bit of a disadvantage. But which one would you rather face? Let us know if the comments below.

Buster Olney says that tonight depends on Rick Porcello's fastball. Rob Neyer (easily) picks the Twins tonight. Mark Feinsand would also be surprised if the Twins didn't win tonight. Sam Borden puts forth a strong case for the Yankees wanting to face the Tigers...but in the end he thinks that the Yankees would be better off facing the Twins because of starting pitching. Bob Klapisch thinks that the Yankees should want the Twins as well.

One more point: After watching the Sunday and Monday night games there are two other factors here. Miguel Cabrera, like Rashard Medenhall, has that "I need to redeem myself" factor about him because of being benched the game before. Carl Pavano, like Brett Favre, has that "I need to redeem myself" factor because of his tenure with the Yankees. Just something else to think about...I could see Cabrera going off for 4 HRs in the series or Pavano throwing a 8 inning shutout.