Friday, May 28, 2010

Biggest Fantasy Baseball Surprises: Outfielders, DHs and Pitchers

Yesterday we looked at the biggest fantasy baseball surprises in the infield, today we'll look at those that play the outfield, are solely utility, starting pitchers or relief pitchers. All stats and rankings courtesy of Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball. Here we go:

Utility (AKA DH)

Biggest Surprise - Vladamir Guerrero. Former Angels made popular fantasy baseball draft picks from John Lackey to Chone Figgins. But who would have thought that the best former Angel was going to be Vladamir Guerrero. He was ranked the 145th best player coming into this season and is now the second best player in baseball and looking like his MVP form of the past (as well as a sure-fire candidate to go back to Anaheim for the All-Star Game). He's hitting .339 with 29 runs, 12 HR, 42 RBI, and 4 SB.  Two points to make. One is that the weather hasn't really gotten hot so the balls are going to start jumping out even more in Texas this summer. And two, the craziest point about this whole thing is that if the Rangers had completed their trade for Mike Lowell in the off-season, Vlady may be sitting with Jermaine Dye at home still looking for work. Picture from USA Today 

Biggest Disappointment - Pat Burrell. This is pretty bad. Burrell was drafted in a fair amount of leagues for those hoping to get a bounce-back year from the Tampa DH. But he rewarded those people (and the Rays) with a .202 average, 9 runs, 2 HR and 13 RBI in 84 ABs before being released. Ouch. For a small market team such as Tampa, that's gotta hurt.

Outfielders

Biggest Surprises - Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Brett Gardner. Blue Jays (and former Blue Jays) made our list quite a bit yesterday and they're back at it today with two career revivals. Vernon Wells tore it up in April for the Jays and though he's slowed down a bit in May, he still hitting .299 with 31 runs, 11 HR, 33 RBI and 2 SB. Alex Rios was left for dead last year after the White Sox took on his contract dump, but Rios has been the 4th best player in all of fantasy baseball this past month, putting up a .337 average with 20 runs, 6 HR, 14 RBI and 9 SB and is the 10th best player overall on the season. Gardner was probably the last Yankee hitter anyone would have drafted but I was happy to have gotten him in 3 different leagues. Although he's cooled off a lot lately, Gardner is still the 40th best player in all of fantasy baseball, hitting .293 with 34 runs, 2 HR, 14 RBI and 17 SB. Amazingly, he's only on teams in 80% of leagues. Honorable Mention - Maggilio Ordonez (#216, .327, 32 runs, 7 HR, 32 RBI), Jose Guillen (#330, 30 runs, 11 HR, 33 RBI), Marlon Byrd (#288, .306, 27 runs, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 3 SB), Austin Jackson (#331, .335, 31 runs, 13 RBI, 7 SB), and Angel Pagan (#435, .296, 26 runs, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 8 SB, but still only owned in 12% of leagues!) Picture from Chicago Breaking Sports

Biggest Disappointments - Grady Sizemore, Nate McLouth, and Carlos Lee.  Sizemore and McClouth have dealt with injuries, but that doesn't excuse their extremely poor play while they were in the lineup. Sizemore was the 21st ranked player coming into the season and many fantasy teams quickly gobbled him up figuring he was good for a 25-25 season. Not so fast. in 128 ABs, Sizemore is homerless, with only 15 runs, 13 RBI, 4 SB and a paltry .211 average. Lee has been pretty horrible as well. Although usually a pretty reliable run producer for fantasy teams, the #67 ranked player is 893rd ranked on the season, putting up a .199 average, 16 runs, 5 HR, and 19 RBI. McLouth gets the last spot here in a close race. Despite being the 92nd ranked player in baseball coming into the season, McLouth is hitting only .190 with 16 runs, 3 HR, 13 RBI, and 2 SB. Part-time players Marcus Thames, Corey Patterson, and Tyler Colvin all outrank McClouth and Lee. Honorable Mention - Matt Holliday (#19, .286, 5 HR, 19 RBI), Nick Markakis (#56,  3 HR, 15 RBI), Adam Lind (#59, .228 average), Adam Jones (#78, .259, 20 runs, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB), Chris Coghlan (#101, .218, 19 runs, 2 HR, 12 RBI), and Julio Borbon (#111, .229, 18 runs, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 6 SB). Picture from NBC Sports

Starting Pitchers

Biggest Surprises - Ubaldo Jiminez, Jaime Garcia, and Doug Fister. It may be unfair to put Jiminez on this list since he was ranked 71st coming into the season, but the way he's dominated real baseball and fantasy baseball has just been amazing. 71.1 innings, 9 wins, 61 K, 0.88 ERA, 0.93 WHIP. Wow. Jaime Garcia was ranked #336 coming into the season and has really impressed in only 55.1 innings, getting 4 wins, 45 K, 1.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Lastly, Doug Fister has been fantastic for fantasy owners, putting up 3 wins in 62 innings with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP after coming in ranked only 337. Amazingly, Fister is still only owned in 52% of fantasy leagues. Honorable Mention - Phil Hughes (#226, 5 wins, 61 Ks, 3.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), Mike Pelfrey (#318, 63.2 innings, 7 wins, 1 save, 44 K, 2.54 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), Livan Hernandez (#866, 60.2 innings, 4 wins, 2.08 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), Mat Latos (#291, past month 35.0 innings, 3 wins, 29 K, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP) and Mike Leake (#408, past month 39.1 innings, 3 wins, 29 K, 2.06 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP) Picture from the AP

Biggest Disappointments - Felix Hernandez, Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez and Josh Beckett. There's a few pitchers who could have been included here, but these 4 will get the mention for now. King Felix was the 37th ranked player coming into the season but has only 2 wins, a 3.80 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Haren was ranked 51st and although he's struck out 76 in 74 innings, he has an ugly 5.35 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Vazquez's 80th ranking coming into the season was mostly due to his excellent season in Atlanta last year but his 6.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP are really ugly. Staying in the division, Josh Beckett was supposed to lead the Red Sox staff but only one win and a 7.29 ERA and 1.66 WHIP before landing on the DL hasn't helped his (or the Red Sox) cause. Honorable mention - Zack Greinke (#31, 1 win, 51 K, 3.57 ERA), Wandy Rodriguez (#79, 52 IP, 2 wins, 31 K, 4.33 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), Gavin Floyd (#120, 2 wins, 6.02 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), John Lackey (#126, 35 K, 4.84 ERA, 1.60 WHIP), Jake Peavy (3 wins, 6.05 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), and Rick Porcello (#139, 25 K, 5.58 ERA, 1.70 WHIP) Picture from Seattle P-I

Relief Pitchers

Biggest Surprises - Tyler Clippard and Sean Marshall. These are two guys who are not closers, but are raking in the stats in relief. Clippard is the 3rd best reliever (behind Carlos Marmol and Jonathan Broxton) and pitching in 31.2 innings has 7 wins, 25 K, 1.99 ERA and 1.11 WHIP despite coming into the season ranked as the 249th best player. Marshall came into the season as the 377th best player and has been doing great from the relief role with 5 wins in 24.1 innings, striking out 31. His 1.85 ERA and 0.90 have helped out fantasy teams who were OK with losing the saves. Honorable Mention - Evan Meek (#372, 29 IP, 2 wins, 30 K, 0.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP), Hisanori Takahashi (38 IP, 4 wins, 44 K, 2.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and Luke Gregerson (#361, 24.2 IP, 28 K, 1.82 ERA, 0.49 WHIP). Picture from the Washington Post

Biggest Disappointment - George Sherrill. This is sort of a tough category since relievers rarely get drafted in 5x5 leagues, but I'm going to go with Sherrill. After closing for the Orioles in the tough AL East, Sherrill looked like a good bet to take as a back-up closer in the NL West for the Dodgers this season. Not really. In 14.2 innings, Sherrill struck out only 10, but had a 7.36 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. He came into the season ranked 290th and is now ranked 1,054th. Ouch. Honorable Mention - Jason Frasor (#270, began season as Toronto's closer, but was dropped from that role and despite being better in middle relief, has a 4.35 ERA and 1.60 WHIP which isn't helping his cause).

Closers

Biggest Surprise - Matt Capps. There are a few OK candidates here but no one stands out as much as Capps. Coming into the season as the 338th ranked player and not even guaranteed the closer job (some were lobbying for recently released Brian Bruney to get it), Capps wasn't drafted in every league. But those who drafted him are very thankful as he's pitched in only 23.1 innings but recorded 16 saves, struck out 21, and has a 2.70 ERA to go along with a 1.16 WHIP. Those 16 saves lead baseball and have helped out many a fantasy team on the young season. Honorable Mention - Ryan Franklin (#340, 22.1 IP, 3 wins, 10 saves, 13 K, 2.01 ERA, 0.90 WHIP), Rafael Soriano (#147, 19.1 IP, 2 wins, 13 saves, 16 K, 1.40 ERA, 0.88 WHIP), and Manny Corpas (#346, 30.1 IP, 1 win, 4 saves, 21 K, 2.37 ERA, and 0.86 WHIP). Picture from ESPN

Biggest Disappointments - Chad Qualls and Trevor Hoffman. There have been a few guys scuffling on the young season, but none have seemed to have it rougher than Qualls and Hoffman. In only 15.2 innings, he has 9 saves and 18 K (which is good), but he has a 6.32 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP (which is very bad). Worse yet, Qualls was seen as a safe pick coming into the season but has been dropped on so many teams that he's owned by less that 75% of fantasy owners. Hoffman's line speaks for itself: 15 innings, 5 saves, 9 K, 11.40 ERA, 2.00 WHIP. Ouch. Honorable Mention - Brian Fuentes (#235, 6 saves, 13 K, 5.40 ERA and 1.29 WHIP) and Bobby Jenks (6.35 ERA and 2.06 WHIP).

So which ones of these guys are helping you march towards your league title and which ones of these guys have been killing your fantasy team? Who do you think is buy low/sell high candidates here? Let us know in the comments below

And just wanted to do a quick update for our NYaT Fantasy Baseball League: Division 1 is led by "MendozaLine AllStars" (the 2nd ranked team) at 38-29-3 followed by "DiamondDallasBraden" (the 5th ranked team). The best teams are in Division 2 where "Swisher's Mohawk" has been dominating everyone at 47-17-6 (thanks to a lineup that boasts surprises Jose Bautista and Alex Rios), followed by "TheYankeesWinn22" (3rd overall) and my team, "Blogmaster Flex", at 37-31-2 (5th overall). Bragging rights are on the line here, people!

6 comments:

  1. I'm also gonna throw Mike Gonzalez's name under the biggest disappointing closers.

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  2. Well he's been hurt...I was trying to exclude most people who have spent a majority of time on the DL

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  3. Here's the biggest disappointment of all: Pat Burrell, who was released by the Rays a few weeks ago after hitting .202/.292/.333, is currently 4th in the AL All-Star voting for DH.

    I cannot believe 130,265 people have voted for an unemployed baseball player.

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  4. They didn't. I just voted for him 130,265 times. I thought it would be funny!

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  5. I think it speaks more to the dearth in DHs than anything else. Besides Vlad Guerrero, how many big sluggers are at that position? It's strange to think about, but the days of the great slugging DHs like Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz and Hideki Matsui is slowly fading.

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  6. By the way, the problem with Fister is that he struggles to get W's pitching for Seattle, and he can't strike anyone out. So he's basically good for just ERA/WHIP. Otherwise, I think a lot more teams would pick him up. Also, I think his sabermetrics indicate that he's gotten lucky (maybe batters have an unusually low BABIP against him?) so people -- such as me -- are wary that the other shoe will drop and he'll get hammered.

    Although Fister does have a pretty awesome name. The possibility for fisting-related jokes is endless.

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