Thursday, August 5, 2010

Working the Count: Yankees Pitches Per Plate Appearance Over the Years

We talked a bit in the last post about the gritty, gutsy Yankee teams of the past. One of the observations brought forth was that this was not only a team that seemed to be good at taking pitches and working counts, but one that also produced the results in good hitter who got on base at a good clip. Let's change the subject now and look at pitches per plate appearance. The general logic in P/PA is that the more pitches a player sees, the better chance he has to either get a good pitch to hit or draw a walk, and the more pitches that team sees, the faster they tire the starting pitcher or face inferior pitchers in the bullpen (although the results don't always correspond). Let's work back from 2010 to see how those teams fared in P/PA (for qualified hitters only in the years we talked about in the last post):
Gardner's patience has made him an even more valuable asset (Yahoo)

2010 (3.90 P/PA)
The Yankees sport 6 regulars above league average with Brett Gardner on a historic P/PA pace. Cano and Granderon's spots on this list show, however, that 2010 results haven't exactly been tied to P/PA (though 3.42 ties Cano's career high). Swisher continues to be a high P/PA guy for the Yankee and A-Rod, Posada, and Teixeira provide a patient middle of the order to wear down opposing pitchers. 3.9 P/PA is a lot: if you think about it, this means that an average run through the Yankees batting order produces over 35 pitches meaning that starters will be lucky to get around the lineup 3 times.
 
Pit/PA ▾
Brett Gardner* 4.61
Curtis Granderson* 4.11
Nick Swisher# 4.04
Alex Rodriguez 3.96
Jorge Posada# 3.95
Mark Teixeira# 3.87
League Average 3.83
Derek Jeter 3.54
Francisco Cervelli 3.54
Robinson Cano* 3.42
Team Total 3.90
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

2009 (3.88)
Nick Swisher was a huge addition to this team and the list as he came over to the Yankees after leading the majors in 2008 (at 4.53) and takes over for Bobby Abreu who was a P/PA cog in the Yankees lineup. Mark Teixeira has impressive first-year results as well as he takes over for the patient Jason Giambi in the lineup. Amazingly only Jeter (who had an MVP-type season but has been below league average his entire career) and Cano fall below the league average putting this group at a very impressive 3.88 P/PA for the entire 2009 season.



Pit/PA ▾
Nick Swisher# 4.26
Johnny Damon* 4.06
Alex Rodriguez 3.97
Jorge Posada# 3.94
Hideki Matsui* 3.93
Melky Cabrera# 3.86
Mark Teixeira# 3.85
League Average 3.84
Derek Jeter 3.84
Robinson Cano* 3.39
Team Total 3.88
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

2001 (3.78)
We jump a few years here again and we see some odd results. The Yankees team that was seen as so patient has really fallen behind the pack. Posada has historically seen a lot of pitches, but O'Neill and Martinez really fall off in their last seasons in Pinstripes. Even with a weak group, this team still was above league average.

Pit/PA ▾
David Justice* 3.98
Jorge Posada# 3.97
Chuck Knoblauch 3.95
Bernie Williams# 3.87
Alfonso Soriano 3.83
League Average 3.74
Tino Martinez* 3.69
Derek Jeter 3.69
Scott Brosius 3.60
Paul O'Neill* 3.53
Team Total 3.78
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

2000 (3.79)
A rare year for Jeter to be above league average and as we mentioned, he had a monster year to go along with it. But Bernie Williams was really good as well despite his number being below league average. As you'll see as we go on, O'Neill went down these past few years. Despite popular opinion, "The Warrior" title wasn't always because of the amount of pitches he saw in an-bat, especially towards the end.

Pit/PA ▾
Jorge Posada# 3.98
Chuck Knoblauch 3.86
Derek Jeter 3.86
League Average 3.77
Tino Martinez* 3.77
Bernie Williams# 3.73
Paul O'Neill* 3.65
Scott Brosius 3.58
Team Total 3.79
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

1999 (3.80)
Chuck Knoblauch saw a lot of pitches in Pinstripes and 1999--his best season with the Yanks--was no exception. Derek Jeter again performed just above league average but had the best offensive season of his career. Bernie Williams saw more pitches than he ever had before on his way to 100 walks and a .435 OBP.

Pit/PA ▾
Jorge Posada# 3.93
Chuck Knoblauch 3.88
Chili Davis# 3.88
Tino Martinez* 3.85
Bernie Williams# 3.83
Derek Jeter 3.77
League Average 3.75
Paul O'Neill* 3.73
Scott Brosius 3.65
Team Total 3.80
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

1998 (3.81)
The most P/PA of these late 90s teams though O'Neill and Brosius were still bringing down the average. Jorge Posada's insertion as the starter was a huge difference as was getting this many PAs for Strawberry and Raines. The regulars on this team were patient at the plate and it spilled over to their playoff success.
 
Pit/PA ▾
Darryl Strawberry* 4.18
Chuck Knoblauch 4.04
Jorge Posada# 4.03
Tim Raines# 3.99
Tino Martinez* 3.90
Derek Jeter 3.83
Bernie Williams# 3.78
Chad Curtis 3.77
League Average 3.74
Scott Brosius 3.70
Paul O'Neill* 3.64
Team Total 3.81
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

1997 (3.77)
It wasn't much a different result from the other seasons, but they had too many regulars pulling down the average. Girardi's 3.12 was way too low for a regular (and, as I mentioned, he was a black hole of offense anyways) and Williams had a down year. Fielder got injured during the season and wasn't able to provide this patience in the playoffs.

Pit/PA ▾
Cecil Fielder 4.08
Wade Boggs* 4.05
Derek Jeter 3.88
Paul O'Neill* 3.82
Tino Martinez* 3.78
League Average 3.76
Bernie Williams# 3.76
Charlie Hayes 3.73
Chad Curtis 3.72
Joe Girardi 3.12
Team Total 3.77
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

1996 (3.71)
It's funny to think this team was thought of as the start of the "patient Joe Torre" offenses. Below the league average, they were weighed down by Girardi and Mariano Duncan (who had a fluky year if there ever was one). Ruben Sierra was replaced by the much more patient Cecil Fielder mid-season which helped the Yankees out down the stretch. Many will remember Wade Boggs patient at-bat in the World Series game which culminated in Jim Leyritz bomb off of Mark Wohlers hanging slider.  

Pit/PA ▾
Wade Boggs* 3.94
Tino Martinez* 3.86
Paul O'Neill* 3.82
League Average 3.77
Bernie Williams# 3.68
Derek Jeter 3.63
Ruben Sierra# 3.59
Mariano Duncan 3.23
Joe Girardi 3.20
Team Total 3.71
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

1995 (3.79)
Boggs was a force at the top of the Yankees lineup and although they had a bunch of regulars below league average, they still made the pitchers work hard. Mike Stanley and Jim Leyritz provided well-above average results at the catcher position--which would be replaced the year after by the much more impatient Girardi.

Pit/PA ▾
Wade Boggs* 4.30
Mike Stanley 3.98
Jim Leyritz 3.90
Bernie Williams# 3.78
Randy Velarde 3.78
League Average 3.75
Paul O'Neill* 3.75
Pat Kelly 3.74
Tony Fernandez# 3.56
Don Mattingly* 3.47
Team Total 3.79
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

So what conclusion have I reached here? None at all, really. Most of the Yankees teams were patient and saw a lot of pitches, but the correlation between certain players P/PA and their success was spotty at best. The key, though, is for a team to see a lot of P/PA and beat up on the opposition bullpens as the Yankees were (and are) so good at doing. When this 2010 team has been successful has been when they've been able to work counts and get into the other team's bullpen. Their success in October will depend on it.

4 comments:

  1. Thanks for providing the numbers to what is a discussion that always surrounds the Yankees teams--- especially the championship years in the past. It makes me curious if they do the p/pa appearance taking out at bats where a swing at the first pitch results in a hit or an out. I would most be interested to see this with Jeter since he has so often in his career been a first pitch hitter---- Cano also but I think he has paired this back since his impatience was so widely known.

    Now let's hope for the best out of this 3 game series vs. the Sawx. It would be great to put a nail in their coffin. Let's see if Javier can continue his solid pitching--- tonight will be a test to see if he has Brass Balls or Turtle Balls!

    Alex O.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I was curious to see how negative the Boston press has turned so I went to the Globe's site. Dan Shaughnessy was throwing Ellsbury under the bus on Tuesday saying the Sox should trade him. Amazing!

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  3. You are right Alex. B-R has the stats: Cano has swung at 31% of the first pitches (tops on the team) and Jeter is second (29%). League average is 26% and only A-Rod (27%) is with Cano and Jeter above that average. The bottom: Brett Gardner with 7%(!)

    Last year Cano was at 34%, A-Rod 32%, and Jeter 28% just as a means of comparison

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  4. I will take a split. Although coulda shoulda is an easy game after Thames misses a tater by a few inches.

    I like to see Tex on fire. Is it just widely accepted that the Yanks have the nastiest 3-4-5 combo in baseball? Is anyone else close. I do realize Rodriguez is having a very sub-par year, and tex average is down.

    Thanks for the data, it is always interesting to see that kind of info. I think it is a part of the beauty of baseball.

    ReplyDelete