Who Did You Root For This Weekend?

As a Yankee fan, I felt torn this weekend: do I root for the Tampa Bay Rays or the Boston Red Sox? On Twitter and the blogosphere, the question was debated back and forth as well. But as I sat there last night watching Sunday night baseball, I felt conflicted. So besides rooting for a 20-inning game, a tie, or an implosion of Tropicana Field (just kidding on the last one), I figured I had to pick sides. So, I *gulp* picked the Red Sox--but barely. Here's what went into the decision:

Carlos Pena & the Rays bowled over the Red Sox taking 2 of 3 (St. Pete Times)

Although the Yankees and Red Sox have two series left (a home-and-home sort of deal), I'm not sure Boston will be a team the Yankees will have to worry about. Coolstandings.com has the Red Sox at 0.5% to win the division and 5.7% to win the Wild Card (6.2% to make the playoffs). Baseball Prospectus has the Red Sox at 1.3% to win the division and 9.5% to win the Wild Card (10.9% to make the playoffs). That's the best odds of any third place team to make the playoffs and with the Red Sox pitching staff, home park, and memories of 2004, you can never count them out.

And since the goal is just to make the playoffs, the further away the Red Sox are from the Yankees, the better it is for their playoff odds. This is especially important for a veteran team like the Yankees who may want to rest guys like Derek Jeter down the stretch, ease guys like Andy Pettitte and A-Rod back into the lineup, line up a postseason rotation, and limit the amount of regular season innings for Phil Hughes. Clinching a playoff spot early can do that for them.

On the other hand, it seems that the Red Sox, at 6.5 back, are firmly in the Yankees' rear view mirror (PECOTA has them at only 4.6% chance to make the playoffs). With only 6 games remaining against the Yankees, the Red Sox would have to win at least 5 out of 6 and hope for some help from the other teams playing the Yankees. While of course a possibility, it doesn't seem like the team that they should worry about right now. Their bigger concern now may be clinching home-field advantage for the ALDS and ALCS. And although the Yankees have the third best road record in baseball (just behind Tampa and San Diego), they have excelled at home the past two seasons in both the regular season and the playoffs (this year they are best in the AL at home). Right now, the Rays seem like the greatest threat to the Yankees repeat of the American League pennant (though Texas or Minnesota would be really tough too), and an extra home game in a possible ALCS couldn't hurt (especially since anyone the Yankees will play in the playoffs will have a really good home record).

Could the Yankees blow the 6.5 game lead over the Red Sox? Absolutely. But if the Yankees win one of the next two games, they're guaranteed to go into September with at least a 6 game lead on the Sox. This is a Red Sox team without Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis (as well as Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron and others). They are fighting to stay in it, but without the sign of reinforcements coming via the waiver wire, this may be the team you see at the end of September. Is that team dangerous? Sure. But I think the Yankees greater concern should be Tampa at this juncture. The Red Sox play 7 games against the White Sox coming up who while they may start to fall out of the race, will have Manny Ramirez who may want to enact a little revenge from his former squad (and a focused and vengeful Manny is tough to deal with).

So who were you rooting for? And, when these two teams play again in a week, who will you be rooting for? Yankees fans, let us know in the comments below. I can't say I was rooting for the Red Sox (I feel that's like rooting for cavities when you go to the dentist), but if I had to pick one team last night, I may have been picking them. Of course, the Red Sox losing didn't bother me one bit (I was happy neither team swept the series). I just wish it took them 20 innings to complete it. Hopefully next week...