Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Hot Stove Coal: The Yankees Worst Case Scenario, Part 1

The Yankees roster is almost set and baseball's spring training is right around the corner. But for every great Yankees, there is a great question mark that follows them. I wanted to go through those question marks and figure out what's the worst that can happen for each player. Red Sox fans may delight in this list, but this is what happens if everything goes wrong--I, in no way, shape, or form think this is going to happen. But if Hal Steinbrenner made a deal with the devil last season, here's part one of what hell-on-earth for Yankees fans will look like: The Starting Lineup.
Jorge Posada - What it would look like: Basically 2008 redux. He played in only 51 games, garnering a measly 195 PAs. The Yankees don't need him to get 545 (a number he reached from 2000-2007) but they need him to hit the mid 400s. The problem is that there is no backup that can play everyday. There is no position on the Yankees where I feel they have as little depth as at catcher. Jorgie can't get hurt

Mark Teixeira - What it would look like: The beginning of last season. He can't hit and he's killing the team out there. Derek Jeter and Nick Johnson are getting on over 40% of the time but Tex is doing nothing to drive them home. On May 2nd of last season, Tex was hitting .182/.354/.338 through 99 PAs. The Yankees have a surprising amount of depth here with the Nicks (Johnson and Swisher) but taking either of them from their position kills the Yankees defense and hurts the Yankees at the vacated position.

Robinson Cano - What it would look like: The first half of 2008 combined with his RISP performance from 2009. Let's hope that Cano doesn't miss his buddy, Melky Cabrera, too much. In the first half of 2008, Robby hit .246/.285/.358. Part of that was fueled by a low BAbip: .252 and part was oddly fueled by an inability to hit righties (.263/.286/.397 against them for the season). Those struggles combined with the RISP futility of this past season would make for a pretty awful season at the plate. Combine that with his some lazy defense and his general malaise for running the bases and you have a lethal combo.

Derek Jeter - What it would look like: A worse version of 2008. I don't think we've truly ever seen BAD Derek Jeter. He's had some times he's struggles and times he's looked awful in the field, but he hasn't looked awful. But as he turns 36 next season, there is the chance that decline could hit. I can imagine a nightmare scenario where he's slipped offensively and defensively to the point the Yankees have no interest in signing him in the off-season leading to a battle colder than the Cold War itself. The only thing worse for Yankees/Jeter is if he was tied to PED rumors. Since all of that is ridiculous (trying to quickly put it out of my head) a serious Jeter injury like 2003 could also hurt the Yankees.

Alex Rodriguez - What it would look like: the beginning of 2009. The worst A-Rod is the one not in the lineup. The Yankees may not be able to get away with A-Rod missing over a month this season like they were in 2009. Unclutch A-Rod making a return wouldn't be as bad as having no A-Rod. For a guy getting on in age who plays 3rd base and had major hip surgery, this is not a good scenario. Could Ramiro Pena come in and play a little? Sure. But not enough to make anyone forget A-Rod.

Brett Gardner - What it would look like: Tony Womack II. In 2005, the Yankees decided it would be a good idea to give an everyday spot to a guy who was fast but couldn't get on base to exploit that speed. That's the biggest fear with Gardner. The guy is never going to hit for power but if he can get on base at a decent clip, he can be dangerous for the Yankees. Also, if his defense isn't as good as the small sample size suggests, that really decreases the value of Gardner. If he can't play, the fans will get on him and he'll face "Johnny Damon" chants when he bats. That's nothing good.

Curtis Granderson - What it would look like: Bernie Williams 2005. Bernie in 2005 had a .231/.305/.286 line vs lefties with 1 HR. The fear for Granderson is that he continues to suck vs. lefties. Former power hitter who can't hit for power anymore. Gets bad jumps on the ball and takes bad routes once he does. Doesn't hit for a great average and doesn't get on base like he used to. Speed doesn't translate to stolen bases. The nightmare of this also is that Austin Jackson has a great rookie year, Ian Kennedy is a stud for Arizona and Phil Coke becomes a dominant Tigers closer. Grandy becomes more interested in his community service and quits trying at baseball, leaving the Yankees with an immovable contract.
Nick Swisher - What it would look like: His 2008 season. Remember, the Yankees got this guy on a down year and he responded big time last season. What if last season was the blip instead of 2008? That's a scary thought with Nick. His defense could be worse in right where sometimes he seems to be more interested in his Bleacher Creature role call than actually playing the position.

Nick Johnson - What it would look like: Mark Prior. The man made of glass gets injured and isn't able to play. The Yankees right now are taking a big risk by having no bats on their bench or ready to be called up so if Nick Johnson can't go for a long time, they need to move someone like Nick Swisher to DH and use Randy Winn full-time in right. While the team would have a very good defensive outfield, they wouldn't hit at all. Hideki Matsui has a great season for the Angels, making this even worse.

That's Part 1 of the Worst Case Scenarios. Stay tuned for Part 2...if you can stomach it. I decided to add a picture of the destruction of Yankee Stadium from Chopper 880 (H/T Jay). I figured while we're busy not being able to stomach something, I would add that. Sorry.

5 comments:

  1. If Johnson went down, I think it's just as likely that the team calls up Juan Miranda to take his place. Granted, that's not necessarily any better than Winn, but there's potential

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  2. Should I create a Mets worse case scenario post? Is that even possible? Can you have a worst case if you don't have a decent case?

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  3. I think the Mets worst case scenario is called the Mets

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