Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Ignore Joba Rules? Um...No

The New York Daily News says that we should stop talking about silly innings limits and let Joba be Joba.
Yeah...maybe that's not such a great idea.
These innings limits aren't the Yankees' grand scheme to hold Joba Chamberlain back from realizing his full potential. They aren't meant to stifle his aggressiveness or give the Yankees a lesser chance to win. The Yankees aren't trying to make the AL East race more competitive.
They're trying to preserve Joba's arm.
Some people feel that modern day pitchers get "babied" as they come up in an organization, but maybe that "babying" is just really extra care given to protect the pitcher and the team's investment.
The problem with overextending a pitcher too soon has become known as the Verducci effect. Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci did a pretty good job of going through Major League pitchers in 2008 and 2009 to predict which ones would have arm troubles. How did he do this prediction? Tarot card reading? Eeny-Meeny-Miny-Mo? No, he looked at innings pitched and the increase from the previous year. From Verducci: "In 2005 and '06 I found 17 pitchers I defined as at-risk of the YAE [Year After Effect]. None made it through the next year without an injury or a higher ERA. Ten of them broke down, the most seriously hurt being Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibel Sanchez. Eleven of them had worse ERAs, by an average of about a run and a half."
After being rushed through the minors this season, Washington Nationals top (signed) pitching prospect, Jordan Zimmermann, now has to undergo Tommy John surgery to repair his arm (though their GM claims it was not because of innings limits). Cole Hamels blew away his previous innings mark last season (with 227.1 innings as a 24-year-old), and while that earned the Phillies a World Series title, he has a 4.77 ERA this season to go along with injury problems.
This is why the Yankees announced this today, from Peter Abraham:
Joba was the topic this morning. Joe Girardi confirmed what has been reported here all season long, that Joba will stay in the rotation and will not be sent to the bullpen. He also will be able to pitch in the playoffs. Limitations disappear at that point. They’ll basically will spread out his starts when they can.
Joba was filled in last night with some of the details. Not every start will be on extra rest but some obviously will be.
The Yankees potentially have a #1 starter under their control for cheap for years to come. With a large lead in the division and the playoffs in sight, why take a chance that Joba will hurt his arm? I think we all rather see the fist pump for years to come and it's easier to fist pump when your arm is not in a sling.
 
(picture from Daily News article)

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