Sunday, June 21, 2009

San Francisco Giants Need Some Offense

If you hadn't noticed, the San Francisco Giants just swept the AL West-leading Texas Rangers. Tonight, Barry Zito took a no-hitter into the seventh to finish off that sweep. The Giants are 11-2 in home series so far this season. They are now 36-31 and leading a crowded NL Wild Card race. After the game, Zito declared the Giants "a real threat".

But are they really (I think they're officially done with the division, but Wild Card-wise)? As the FanHouse article says:
It's still too early to officially say the Giants can hold off teams like the Mets, Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs over the final three months. This sweep of the Rangers also comes with the disclaimer that Texas' vaunted offense was slumping even before the DH-less Rangers arrived at pitcher-friendly AT&T Park.

That said, holding any American League team to seven runs in three games and beating one of the AL's ERA leaders (Kevin Millwood) has earned the Giants the right to, for the moment, strut a little.
Well pitching really isn't a problem for this team. Tim Lincecum (6-2, 2.72 ERA) and Matt Cain (9-1, 2.28 ERA) are a crazy-good 1-2 punch. Lincecum was last year's NL Cy Young and Matt Cain is pushing to be this years' with a tie for the NL lead with 9 wins so far. Both pitchers are in the top 5 in the NL in ERA and Win-Loss %. Lincecum is 7th in WHIP and Cain 7th in hits per 9 innings. Lincecum is 2nd in K's per 9 innings, 4th in SO/BB, and 3rd in HR per 9 innings pitched. And Barry Zito and Randy Johnson have shown flashes of brilliance as well, (though Zito and Jonathan Sanchez have also struggled at times).

The bullpen is really good too (though Cain has decided to forgo them 3 times so far this season, leading the NL in complete games). Like really good. They've had 6 pitchers pitch in 20 games this season and each one has an ERA+ over 100 (league average), led by an unheralded, but great free agent pick-up, Jeremy Affeldt with a 1.65 ERA in a team-leading 32 games. Closer Brian Wilson converting 19 saves, including his past 10 opportunities.

But the biggest problem on this team is the offense. Via FanHouse:
This is still a team that relies on Bengie Molina as its cleanup hitter. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who had two more hits on Sunday to raise his average to .338, is a candidate for the All-Star Game. Rowand has been reborn since a move to the leadoff spot, hitting .371 over his past 32 games.

After that, though, the Giants don't have a player hitting better than .268. Rowand, Molina and Sandoval are the only players with more than four homers.
That's only the beginning of the problems. Sandoval and Rowand are the only two hitters who have OPS+ over 100 (league average). So that means that 7 out of the 9 hitters they're throwing out there every day are below league average. Out of 16 NL teams, they came in to today's action 15th in runs, 10th in hits, 14th in HR, 16th in BB, 16th on OBP, 15th on SLG, and 15th in OPS.

It would seem that they would need more than one hitter to cure this offense. Maybe Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn from Washington or Mark DeRosa and Victor Martinez from Cleveland would do the trick. Or maybe going across the Bay to Oakland for Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi. Or within the division for Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins (hoping he'll be able to revert to 2006/2007 Atkins in a new surrounding).

I don't know who (if anyone) they will end up acquiring, but they have two premium pitching prospects--Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson--to trade, and they'll need to do something soon if they hope to hold off the Mets, Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs.

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