Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Why Not Adam Dunn?

A lot of attention has been given to teams pursuing Nick Johnson, but shouldn't those same teams also be looking at Adam Dunn? Dunn scares away a lot of stupid people because they see his average batting average and large amount of Ks and assume he's a bad hitter. Far from it: the guy takes pitches, gets on base, and hits a ton of homeruns. While Johnson is a continual health risk, Dunn is nothing but durable, getting over 515 ABs every season since his rookie year except 2003. Who cares if he strikes out a lot? Would you rather him hit into double plays? He currently hits a home run every 13 ABs and for his career, he's hit a homerun once every 13.871 ABs which is good for 5th in major league history behind Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Jim Thome. And for his career (via B-R), Dunn ranks in the top 25 of active players in OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, BB, OPS+, adjusted batting runs, adjusted batting wins, offensive win %, and IBB. He averages 40 HRs a year and has hit that mark since 2004. He's on pace for 44 HRs, 116 RBIs and 129 BBs. Currently Dunn is first in the NL in BB, 5th in HR, 7th in RBI, and 3rd in pitches per AB.
Wouldn't it make sense for the Mets to acquire him and play him at first until (or if) Carlos Delgado comes back and then move him to the OF? If Ortiz's June numbers end up not holding, couldn't the Red Sox use him at DH? If the San Francisco Giants are really serious about making a run for the playoffs, wouldn't he be a huge upgrade for that anemic offense (and maybe bring Nick Johnson along with him since they need a LOT of offensive help)? Couldn't a team in the AL West like Texas or the LA Angels use him as a 1B/DH/OF to propel their offense over the top? If Minnesota decides to stay in the race, wouldn't he look nice as a DH in the middle of that order (Mauer/Dunn/Morneau would be scary)? Or maybe team him up with Albert Pujols in the STL lineup? Or could he have a second stint with the Braves who could replace Francouer's impatience with Dunn's patience and long ABs in RF?
Speaking of long ABs, the top 10 in pitches per plate appearance may surprise you. 1) Jayson Werth (4.51 P/PA), 2) Kevin Youkilis (4.47), 3) Nick Swisher (4.45), 4) Luis Castillo (4.38), 5) Adam Dunn (4.31), 6) Casey Blake (4.30), 7) Jeremy Hermida (4.28), 8) David Wright (4.28), 9) Nick Johnson (4.25), and 10) Jim Thome (4.25) While you expect guys like Kevin Youkilis, Adam Dunn, Jim Thome, and Nick Swisher, I was surprised to see Werth, Castillo, Blake and Hermida on this list. It's no surprise that the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, White Sox, and Dodgers are all near the top in their divisions (the one outlier being the Nationals) because the more pitches the starter throws, the quicker you get into the bullpen and for mostly every major league team, this is where your team can do some damage. Now why exactly wouldn't you like Adam Dunn on your team?
 

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