NYaT Roundtable: Belated 2011 National League Picks

And I thought I was behind with the American League picks. These are even further behind. Luckily, all the picks were done before the season started so while some of them will sound funny now, they are still genuine expert picks. Well "expert". Because, as we saw from the American League, some of our predictions are already not working out. Here's what we think about the NL:

NYaT writers think that Doc Halladay's Phillies will take it all (Star-Ledger)

NL East

Ben W: When a team's starting pitching is as good as the Phillies' staff is, it's hard not to predict them as division winners. I understand that there are questions about their bullpen and their lineup, but their 1-4 starters are just too good. Braves will be a close second. Don't count out the Marlins either. They have good, young starting pitching and Mike Stanton is gonna be a superstar. Mets might improve marginally. Nationals got Jayson Werth but still won't contend. Phillies.

Ben P: The Phillies probably have the best rotation I've ever seen and their lineup isn't too shabby either. Can anyone beat this team? The Braves have a lot of young talent and will probably take the wild card. Florida and the Mets both seem like 500 teams. Both have more questions than answers on their rosters but Florida's pitching and the Mets lineup will make them competitive. The Nationals simply don't have the pitching to compete and have a few too many Zimmermans for my taste. Phillies.

Jay: I realize the Phillies' offense is aging and that Brad Lidge is injured, but the starting pitching is just too strong. I think the Braves, backed by Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Brian McCann, Martin Prado, and the newly acquired Dan Uggla give them a run for their money, but fall a game or two short. Phillies.

Alex O: Let’s go with another surprise pick and not pick the Phillies--- who start season banged up. I am going with Hotlanta. Heyward has a breakout year and the Braves surprise most with a division title. Braves.

Andrew: I'm going to side with Alex and pick the Braves. Although the Braves rotation isn't as good as the Phillies, their bullpen and lineup are better and I think they find a way to overtake them this year. I said that last year as well and look what happened, but I think the maturation of their youth and Dan Uggla make the difference in Atlanta. The Marlins will be around .500 and the Mets will be just under. The Nats are going to be more competitive than most people think and may actually not finish last Braves.

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NYaT Gives Out Our MLB Awards: National League

We did our American League picks earlier today. Now let's look at those award winners (or losers) from the Senior Circuit:

Joey Votto has been huge for the Reds in '10 (CBS Sportsline)

National League MVP: Joey Votto.
Followed by:  tied for second Albert Pujols and Carlos Gonzalez (Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard and Troy Tulowitzki).

It's amazing to think back to the fact that the only way Votto made the All-Star Team this year was because of a fan vote for the last spot. Who were his biggest competition? Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Zimmerman, two people he'll be battling for to win the MVP this season. Amazing. Albert Pujols is just having another one of his years but with both the Cards and Rockies not making the playoffs, I think that Pujols and CarGo are out. Same going for Adrian Gonzalez who had a fantastic year for a surprise Padre team, but went flat the last week of the season as his team did the same. But Votto (.424 OBP and .600 SLG lead the league, .324 average was second) has been fantastic for the surprise Reds, overtaking Pujols' Cards and winning the division for the first time in a long time. Amazingly, according to FanGraphs, Votto hit ZERO infield fly balls all season. None. Unless Luis Castillo is on the other team, infield fly balls are the one guarantee out (outfield fly balls can find grass or go beyond the wall and ground balls can find a hole but infield pops find gloves almost all the time). The one thing working against Votto and CarGo, though? Home parks that favor hitters. That didn't stop every single one of our voters, from putting Joey Votto first on their ballots making him a unanimous pick for NL MVP.

National League LVP: Jason Bay.
Followed by:  Melky Cabrera and a tie for third between Jeff Francouer, Nyjer Morgan, Oliver Perez and Pedro Feliz (Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Nate McLouth, and Pablo Sandoval also receiving votes).

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My All-Star Team: The Best of the Rest

We tried to fill out the rosters for the All-Star Game. I picked the hitters from the American League, the hitters from the National League, and the American League pitchers, and the National League pitchers, but still we had 5 teams without a representative. And since Major League Baseball has a silly rule that every team has to have a representative, we'll comply as well by listing the best of the rest from the 5 teams without a clear All-Star:

Baltimore Orioles: Ty Wigginton got an honorable mention at 2nd base for us and in a year of infield injuries (especially with Dustin Pedroia down), he may be a good a pick as any from the struggling Os. His .262/.347/.473 line with a .356 wOBA doesn't scream out "All Star", but 14 HR and 42 RBIs may put him over the hump. This is not a good team and it shows that a guy with a WAR of 0.7 is their best candidate for the All-Star Game. ESPN also goes with Wigginton. Counting Stats: .262 avg, 30 runs, 14 HR, 42 RBI. Photo from SNY

Honorable Mentions: Luke Scott (.274/.348/.520, .376 wOBA, 12 HR, 30 RBI) could certainly slot in as an OF/DH type on the team as well, though there are plenty of good candidates for the role and Scott just hit the DL. Brian Matusz is about as close as the Os come to having a pitching candidate but although it's a good start for the rookie, 2-9 with a 4.90 ERA isn't enough to play in the Mid-Summer Classic. Nick Markakis leads the team with a WAR of 1.7 and his slash line looks great at .303/.399/.425, but with only 3 HR and 24 RBI, he's going to have a hard time beating out a lot of good candidates in the OF.

Cleveland Indians: With Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez and CC Sabathia traded away and Grady Sizemore hurt, the Tribe is without most of their most reliable all- candidates but that doesn't mean that Shin-Soo Choo doesn't deserve to play in the All-Star Game. Choo's .289/.391/.480 line, 13 HR, 12 SB, and good defense add up to a 3.1 WAR so far which is certainly All-Star material (the only OFs in baseball with a higher WAR are Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday, and Alex Rios). ESPN and The Cleveland Plain Dealer agree with my Choo suggestion. Counting Stats: .281 avg, 47 runs, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 12 SB. Picture from The Cleveland Plain Dealer

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My All-Star Team: National League Hitters

Yesterday we tackled the American League All-Star Hitters. Today we move on to the batters from the Senior Circuit that are worthy of making the 2010 All-Star Game in Anaheim. While there were a couple of tough selections on the American League side, with more teams in the National League, it's going to be even harder. Since there is no DH, I'll be taking two extra hitters to fill out my 21-man position-player roster. And away we go (all stats min 100 PAs):

Catcher: Geovany Soto, Miguel Olivo and Brian McCann. While in the American League we have Jorge Posada, Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez (not to mention John Buck and Mike Napoli), in the National League, the pickings look a little different. But these three are definitely worthy (although all but maybe McCann will be beaten out by Yadier Molina it seems). Olivo has revived his career in Colorado and is hitting .301/.365/.523 with 9 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB and a .380 wOBA. Olivo's OPS is first among NL Catchers and his wOBA is second to Soto. Speaking of Soto, he has enjoyed a very nice bounce-back year in Chicago. While the rest of his team is underperforming, he's been quite good. His .408 OBP is tops (by far) among NL catchers and actually leads all Major League catchers. Meanwhile, McCann benefits from needing a third catcher here, though his .377 OBP, 8 HR, 30 RBI and .357 wOBA for the first-place Braves is nothing to sneeze at. McCann ranks ahead of Soto on WAR (2.0 to 1.6) mostly due to defensive adjustments, but Olivo's fielding puts him in the lead in that category (2.6). "Counting" Stats: Soto .268 avg, 8 HR, 18 RBI; Olivo .301 avg, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB; McCann .258, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 3 SB. Honorable Mentions: George Kottaras (.822 OPS and .364 wOBA both third among NL catchers) and Nick Hundley (.822 OPS and .347 wOBA for first-place Padres). Picture from the Denver Post.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Aubrey Huff, and Albert Pujols. The first place I'll take an extra hitter is at first where there's a ton of legit players. "Gonzo" leads the National League 1st basemen in WAR with 3.3 which is certainly a combination of his bat (.313/.411/.559 with 15 HR, 47 RBI, and a .407 wOBA) and his glove (league-leading at 1st) for the surprise first-place Pads. Votto leads all NL 1B in wOBA with .415 mark in a breakout year for him where he's matched offensive numbers with Gonzalez (15 HR and 47 RBI as well). Huff has been the biggest surprise of this group, in my opinion since I thought it was an awful move for the Giants to sign him. Huff's .311/.401/.549 line is excellent but his .411 wOBA puts him second to Votto among NL 1B, and his extremely low 11.5% strikeout percentage to go along with solid power numbers and at least average defensive  should earn him a trip to Anaheim. And Sir Albert isn't having his best year but still leads the NL 1B in RBI and is tied for the lead in HR and has 6 SB to go along with that. He will be voted in as the starter at 1st as the NL's leading vote getter and even in a "down year" for Pujols, you know he will be there among NL MVP candidates at the end of the year. Counting Stats: Gonzalez .313 avg, 15 HR, 47 RBI; Votto .310 avg, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 7 SB; Huff .311 avg, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 3 SB; Pujols .302 avg, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 6 SB. Honorable Mentions: Adam Dunn (17 HR leads NL 1B), Troy Glaus (.860 OPS as offensive prowess for Braves), Prince Fielder (numbers slightly down but still a force with a .378 wOBA), and Ryan Howard (coming on late with a .294 avg, 14 HR, and 52 RBI). Picture from Bleacher Report

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