Hot Stove Coal: How About Another Roy?

Brian Cashman's plan for the offseason was supposed to be "pitching, pitching, pitching," but so far, the Yankees have done nothing but subtract pitching and acquire hitting (except for the resigning of Andy Pettitte). They've gone out and added Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson and Jamie Hoffmann. So what are they doing to improve their pitching? Well, a whole lot of nothing so far. The Yankees saw John Lackey go to the Red Sox, Randy Wolf go to the Brewers, Cliff Lee go to the Mariners, and Roy Halladay go to the Phillies. But could the Yankees try to add another Roy as in Roy Oswalt of the Astros.

The Yankees have been looking at a pool of free agents that include Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, Justin Duchscherer, and Ben Sheets. That group does not inspire the greatest confidence...to say the very least. Marquis and Pineiro are probably better suited for the National League and although Sheets and "Duke" have great upside and would probably be better free agent signings, they both bring with them serious injury risk. So in the world of speculation and the general public feeling that the Yankees have to add a free agent starter, today, the New York Post added another name to that list: Carlos Zambrano.

ESPNChicago columnist Bruce Levine knocks down the rumor and Jason over at IIATMS slams it down even more. The rumor itself was about as solid as jello, only saying "Cashman is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano". That's the equivalent to saying that Tiger Woods may or may not be a womanizer. Jason rightly points out that if the Yankees were to acquire a Cub pitcher, Ted Lilly could make more sense*. But most don't see either one as a match.

*Side Note: the frustrating thing about Lilly is that he should have been a Yankee right now rather than a Cub if the Yankees had not decided to go with "Backwards" Kei Igawa instead. And the worst part that Lilly wanted to come to the Yankees; Igawa looks like he can't wait to get back to Japan. 

So while we're in the process of haphazardly throwing out names out there, I'm going to throw out the one I did a few paragraphs back: Roy Oswalt*. Now I will say that I have not read a rumor linking the Yankees to Oswalt and I do not believe they will be in on him...but let's explore the resume, shall we?

*Side Note: I can report with some confidence that Cashman is believed to have inquired about Roy Oswalt. Why can I say this was any amount of confidence? Because Cashman is a General Manager and Oswalt is a pitcher. If a GM leaves a stone unturned, I believe he isn't fully doing his job. And since Cash-money seems like he's doing his job, I'm sure he's asked if Roy Oswalt is available. I'm pretty sure "The Situation" asks every girl in Seaside Heights if she's available as well. It doesn't mean he's necessarily going to acquire any of them either.

Roy Oswalt does not equal Roy Halladay...but I do believe Oswalt is one of the more under-appreciated pitchers of the past decade. Oswalt had five top-5 finishes in the Cy Young voting, and as of the end of September, was in the top 5 of the decade's list (min 700 innings) in Wins (t-5th with 137), W-L % (5th with .662), ERA (4th at 3.23), QS (5th at 186), Quality Start % (1st at .683), and 20-win seasons (t-2nd with 2). Like Halladay, Oswalt will turn 32 this next season. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Oswalt signed an extension in 2006 for 5 years, $73M (with a 2012 club option) that will pay him $15M in 2010, $16M in 2011, and $16M or a $2M buyout in 2012. That means the rest contract is either $33M for two years or $47 for three years. It also includes a full no-trade clause. In the past, any rumors of Oswalt being dealt were met with a firm rebuttal from Astros owner Drayton McLane saying that he values his "personal relationship" with the pitcher, as Ken Davidoff via MLBTradeRumors reported last June. McLane was also reported as saying that he wanted Oswalt (as well as teammate Lance Berkman) to retire as Astros.

So why do I think that things could be different now? First, Oswalt seems to have expressed displeasure with the direction of the Astros and his limited time left with the team in an interview with MLB.com back in August saying:

I think about it all the time, especially if I'm going to stay on my game plan...I have two more years. Time is running out. That's why I'm trying to push them not to look two years down the road...

Everyone says we have great prospects in A ball...That's great for the organization, but I'm looking at now. I tell [owner] Drayton [McLane] all the time, 'The reason I signed here is I want to win, and let's do what we can do to win in the next two years.' Time is running out on me.

A few days later, as reported by the Houston Chronicle's Richard Justice, Oswalt openly questioned the effort of his teammates and said that "the team atmosphere is dead" and that the players were just "going through the motions". That was another sign to Jerome Solomon of the Chronicle that Oswalt may have been trying to talk his way out of Houston. As MLBTradeRumors reported, McLane was upset by Oswalt's comments saying that "these are problems you need to solve internally rather than through the media" but seemed to say that he would look into evaluating solutions. That led to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports (via MLBTradeRumors) speculating in September that Oswalt may be moved this off-season. Since, that, though, there's been little talk on Oswalt, even though Houston has seemed to pare back payroll even more. And although Oswalt had a rough season last year, some of it had to do with his bullpen which, Baseball-Reference points out, allowed 11 of the 12 inherited runners bequeathed by Oswalt to score (his ERA would have been 3.57 without that) and lost 7 wins for him last season.

I love Oswalt (he's 4-0 with a 3.66 ERA in the postseason as well), but I think this may be another "pass" for the Yankees. Oswalt's WAR according to Fangraphs hit 6.4 in 2004 but went to 6.1 in 2005, 5.7 in 2006, 4.6 in 2007, 3.6 in 2008 and 3.1 in 2009. That's a bad trend. He also is owed either 16.5M per for 2 years or 15.67M per for 3 years which is still a lot of money. Since McLane seems to adore Oswalt, I think it would also take a lot in terms of prospects to pry Oswalt away from the Astros. And that's if he would waive his no-trade clause.

I think that the Yankees will go another direction, especially if they're going to add a starter soon. MLBTradeRumors mentions a few other names like Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, Gil Meche and Jeremy Bonderman. And River Avenue Blues points out that this New Years deadline declared by the New York Post article is probably as reliable as the Zambrano rumor itself.

My choice for a pitcher? Ben Sheets. The Yankees already have Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves so the only type of pitcher the Yankees need is someone with bigger upside than that group. Ben Sheets has that and the Yankees have the luxury of slotting one of those other five into the rotation if Sheets gets hurt. River Avenue Blues suggests that it's Duke, Sheets or standing pat. I tend to agree, though I wonder if Cashman has another move up his sleeve. I just don't think that move will be Roy Oswalt (stats below courtesy of Baseball-Reference and picture courtesy of The Houston Chronicle)



Update 4:00 PM: So maybe the Zambrano rumor wasn't so ridiculous: @KenDavidoff: Heard #Yankees did ask #Cubs about Zambrano, as NY Post reported - a few weeks ago. Would've worked only if CHI supplied $. No active talks.