NYaT's Expert MLB Predictions for 2010

We're not really experts--but we're really doing our predictions. Last year I did pretty well. Not great. I had the Yankees and Phillies in the League Championship Series. So, hey, I did OK. But let's get ready for 2010 with some more "expert" predictions. Here's my predictions with the rest of the blog writers chiming in:

AL East
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox  (Wild Card)
3. Rays
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays

This is a three team race with a third team (the Orioles) who have an up-and-coming team. The Blue Jays have some good young players but are probably a few years from competition. The Orioles have one of the best young outfields in baseball (Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Nolan Reimold) but their starting pitching and bullpen may be too raw to compete in 2010. So that leaves the big three. I love the Rays team, but while everything came together for their bullpen in 2008, last year we saw what happens when that bullpen implodes. They will hit and they will field, but can they protect leads? I'm not confident in that. That leaves the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Yankees were 8 games better last year. While the Red Sox probably improved 8 games with their pitching and defense, the Yankees improved as well, basically replacing Chad Gaudin/Sergio Mitre in the rotation with Javy Vazquez (the only guy to throw 198 innings every season of the past decade). It's going to be closer, but I still think the Red Sox are an acquisition or two from beating the Yankees. While the Yankees could be undone by injuries, the Red Sox injury risks (John Lackey, Josh Beckett, Dice-K, J.D. Drew, etc.) are equally as present. What remains to be seen if Jonathan Papelbon has any ill effects from his implosion in last year's deciding game of the ALDS. The Fenway Faithful may not be too forgiving if he blows a game or two in the opening series vs. the Yankees. The Yankees fans will probably feel the same way if Javy Vazquez starts off slow as well. Ben and Ari took the Yankees with the Red Sox as Wild Card as well. Jay took the Yankees winning the division with the Rays as the division winner. Sarah has the Red Sox winning the division with Tampa winning the Wild Card. (picture from the New York Daily News)

AL Central:
1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals

I went back-and-forth with these predictions. I had the Tigers, Twins, and White Sox all first at one point. The truth is that there is no complete team in this division and I would be surprised if it took more than 90 wins to win it. The Royals are awful and with acquisitions like Kyle Farnsworth and Jason Kendall, they seem to be going in the wrong direction. The Indians are light on the pitching but their lineup should be interesting with Grady Sizemore (an MVP candidate once they start winning) and Shin-Soo Choo (20+ HR and 20+ SB). The Tigers should be a lot better but I'm not sure they will be. They collapsed down the stretch last year and while I expect Miguel Cabrera to be better, their outfield defense in spacious Comerica (Johnny Damon, Austin Jackson and Magglio Ordonez some days) will be an adventure for fly-ball power-arm pitchers like Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer. The Twins lineup and defense should be really good, but I don't feel like they had enough pitching with Joe Nathan--so without him, they're certainly light. Also, the Twins lost one of the best home-field advantages in the Major Leagues. Now the White Sox have been disappointing for the past couple of seasons but with John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Jake Peavy (who, if healthy, will be a monster), and Mark Buehrle in the rotation, a deep bullpen, and some good bats like Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin in the lineup, this team should be a lot better than many expect. I could be totally wrong about them, but I'm going with the White Sox to take this division in a close one. Ben takes the White Sox, too, while Jay and Sarah have the Twins and Ari has the Tigers. (picture from the Chicago Tribune)

AL West:
1. Angels
2. Mariners
3. Rangers
4. A's

This is a division that could be won by anyone. The Athletics are young but have a great chance of breaking out if Ben Sheets is healthy and if the lineup can score some runs (debatable). The Rangers should have a really, really good lineup and Elvis Andrus will add to that this year, but questions surrounding the manager, the rotation, and the health and mental fragility of Josh Hamilton may be too much for this team to overcome. Plus, I think that this team will miss Kevin Millwood a lot more than they previously thought--Rich Harden is good but Millwood was very valuable to this young staff. The Mariners will save a ton of runs defensively but they got outscored by a lot last season, have Cliff Lee injured already and huge questions marks behind the Big 2 in the rotation and an iffy bullpen. The Angels are my pick. Joel Piniero cannot replace John Lackey, but with the amount of time that Lackey has missed with the Angels, I don't think the difference will be that large. Their bullpen will be deeper with Fernando Rodney and I think that Hideki Matsui for Vlad Guerrero is a wash (though the team is WAY too lefty heavy). The key for the Angels will be to get a big season from Howie Kendrick who could replace Chone Figgins production in the lineup. Sarah and Ari have the Mariners and Ben and Jay are going with the Angels. (picture from the Statesman)

NL East:
1. Phillies
2. Braves (Wild Card)
3. Marlins
4. Mets
5. Nationals

I really wanted to pick the Braves over the Phillies. The Braves should have a really good, athletic outfield and came close to the playoffs last season. But the loss of Javy Vazquez is huge and cannot be made up by Tim Hudson. I do think they'll win the Wild Card, however, because no team in the NL Central is as good and while there are better teams in the NL West, I think they'll beat each other up all season long. The Phillies are my favorite. I do not like the Placido Polanco signing and I thought they should have gone with Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay for one season--but the truth is that I hated the Raul Ibanez signing last year and he was great and Cliff Lee is now injured. So maybe they had a clue about what they're doing. But I see a bounceback year from Cole Hamels and although the bullpen has holes, I think Phillippe Aumont, the top prospect they got for Cliff Lee, may slot into a late inning role by the end of the season. I love the Marlins top two starters and their middle infield, but the bullpen is worse, the rest of the rotation is not as intimidating and the defense is just not good at all. The Mets are a mess, but if everything comes together, they could quickly jump into contention. But that's predicting no injuries to Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes or David Wright and getting top production from Johan Santana and everyone behind him. Oh, and they need someone to pitch quality innings in front of K-Rod. The Nats are starting to build a good team behind Ryan Zimmerman and pitching prospects, but I think the biggest thing about their season will be when Stephen Strasburg comes to the Majors and to which team they trade Adam Dunn. Ben and Jay both like the Phillies and the Braves taking the Wild Card as well, while Ari and Sarah just like the Phillies making the playoffs from this division. (picture from the Sporting News)

NL Central
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Cubs
4. Reds
5. Pirates
6. Astros

Let's work backwards. I think that the Astros best hope is to stop using the Commissioners slotting system and start drafting a little better--and starting off strong with trading Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman for prospects. I love the Pirates lineup with some good young players including Andrew McCutchen who is the Grady Sizemore of the NL, but they don't have the pitching they need to win. The Reds have some good young players but injuries have killed this team in the past and seems like it will hurt again. This may be a team which could be a piece away from competing at the deadline, but I don't see them spending the money and prospects they need to get that last piece. The Cubs are very similar to the team that underachieved last season though I expect a better season from Alfonso Soriano. The curse will be extended another year. The Cardinals have a really good team but I'm concerned about the pitching rotation with Chris Carpenter and Brad Penny constant injury risks. I love the Brewers. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can go toe-to-toe with any other team in baseball, Alcides Escobar should be a Rookie-of-the-Year candidate, and Yovani Gallardo is one of the top pitchers in the National League. I think they're one starter away from competing but this is a team that has shown they're not afraid to go out and get that pitcher. This will be a close race between the Brewers and Cards but I think the Brew Crew will pull it out. Ari has the Cardinals (with the Brewers taking the Wild Card), Jay and Ben have the Cards as well, and Sarah is going with the Cubbies. (picture from the Sporting News)

NL West
1. Rockies
2. Dodgers
3. Diamondbacks
4. Giants
5. Padres

Let's do a pro-con:

Rockies

• Pros: Carlos Gonzalez is ready for a breakout season, Troy Tulowitzki may vie for the MVP, Ubaldo Jimenez and the rest of the rotation is really good and even without Huston Street, their bullpen is good enough to win the division. Their team is deep too with Melvin Mora, Seth Smith and Jason Giambi all available on the bench and Franklin Morales in the bullpen.
• Cons: They play in a really tough division and a really tough park which may prove too much for the starting rotation. Huston Street is hurt and without him, the bullpen loses it's best pitcher. You also wonder if they'll have the funds to make a mid-season acquisition if needed.

Dodgers

• Pros: Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Manny Ramirez could make up the best outfield in the National League. Jonathan Broxton may be the best closer in the National League. And Joe Torre's teams always seem to find a way.
• Cons: The collapse we saw of this team and the starting rotation is worrisome. They need bounceback seasons from Manny Ramirez, Russel Martin, and Rafael Furcal which may be a lot to ask. They play in one of the more competitive divisions in baseball and may not have enough wins to get the Wild Card if they don't get the division.

Diamondbacks:

• Pros: Dan Haren is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton are beasts, Edwin Jackson (and Ian Kennedy) should fit in well in the NL West, and Adam LaRoche is one of the best value pickups of the entire off-season.
• Cons: If Brandon Webb isn't healthy, this team is probably not going anyplace. I don't love the bullpen, either.

Giants:

• Pros: The pitching rotation and the bullpen
• Cons: The lineup has nothing of great value besides Pablo Sandoval and they will struggle again to score runs

Padres:

• Pros: Adrian Gonzalez and a good young group of players like Kyle Banks, Evereth Cabrera, Mat Latos, and Chase Headley.
• Cons: Jon Garland is their #1 pitcher and they don't have a ton behind him. This team will be very good in a few years if they keep Gonzalez and are able to spend some money.

Ben has the Giants, Jay and Ari have the Rockies, and Sarah and the Dodgers with the Rockies as her Wild Card. (picture from The Patriot-News)

Playoffs:

Andrew:

• LCS: Yankees over Angels, Rockies over Phillies
• WS: Yankees over Rockies

Ben:

• LCS: Yankees over Red Sox, Phillies over Braves 
• WS: Yankees over Phillies

Jay: 

• LCS: Yankees over Rays, Phillies over Cardinals
• WS: Yankees over Phillies

Ari: 

• LCS: Yankees over Mariners, Cardinals over Phillies
• WS: Yankees over Phillies

Sarah: 

• LCS: Red Sox over Rays, Dodgers over Phillies
• WS: Red Sox over Dodgers

More picks coming in a second post tonight including MVPs, Cy Youngs, Rookies of the Year, three facts and three fictions...stay tuned and let us know your thoughts on our predictions below! (picture from Google)