Monday, April 5, 2010

NYaT's Expert MLB Predictions for 2010 Part Deux

Well, we gave the first part of our predictions yesterday, but as the first full day of baseball gets underway, let's take a look at the rest of NYaT's predictions for 2010.


Andrew Ari Ben Jay Sarah
AL MVP Evan Longoria A-Rod Mark Teixeira A-Rod Kevin Youkilis
NL MVP Prince Fielder Albert Pujols Albert Pujols Albert Pujols Chase Utley
AL Cy Young Felix Hernandez CC Sabathia Justin Verlander Zack Greinke Jon Lester
NL Cy Young Roy Halladay Roy Halladay Roy Halladay Roy Halladay Tim Lincecum
AL Rookie of the Year Brian Matusz Michael Brantley Austin Jackson Neftali Feliz Scott Sizemore
NL Rookie of the Year Alcides Escobar Jason Heyward Jason Heyward Jason Heyward Stephen Strasburg

3 facts/3 fictions

Jay:
3 facts:
1.) Either Jerry Manuel or Omar Minaya will be fired...or both.
2.) Joba Chamberlain will excel in his return to the bullpen.
3.) Joe Mauer will regress from his 2009 form (new field, pressure from new contract, always demanding workload behind the plate, etc)

3 fictions:
1.) MLB has seen its last superstar go down in steroid flames.
2.) The New York Mets will finish above .500.
3.) Albert Pujols will finally win the Triple Crown

Ben:
3 facts:
1.) Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira will both win the Triple Crown.
2.) Tim Wakefield will start at least 20 games for the Red Sox.
3.) Milton Bradley will be suspended on multiple occasions.

3 Fictions:
1.) Joba Chamberlain spends the entire 2010 campaign in the bullpen.
2.) Chris Carpenter makes it through the whole season without an extended trip to the DL
3.) Adrian Gonzalez gets traded.

Ari: 
3 Facts
1.) Mets will not make the playoffs

2.) Mets will not finish over 500

3.) Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel will not finish the season


Andrew:
3 facts:
1.) Someone will challenge .400 until right before the All-Star break and then finish well below it
2.) Bats will be a big commodity at the trading deadline with guys like Adrian Gonzalez, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Pena dangled.
3.) The Tigers pitching staff will suffer from bad team defense to the point Jim Leyland decides to sit some of his more productive hitters

3 fictions:
1.) Dontrelle Willis' wildness has been cured or Brad Lidge's problems closing are done
2.) Jerry Manuel and Ron Washington are safe in their current roles
3.) The Angels plan to play Hideki Matsui in the outfield will not backfire

What do you think of our predictions? Let us know in the comments below! (picture from Bleacher Report)

9 comments:

  1. As I wrote the above post, I kept on thinking that if the baseball season was a Jewish holiday, yesterday would have been "Erev Opening Day" and today would have been the real start of the holiday. It feels more natural for opening day to be an afternoon, daytime affair.

    And, I'm pretty sure Ari is trying to jinx the Yankees and reverse jinx the Mets. Yesterday he told me how it was unfair how the Yankees won all the time when it was 5-1 and look what happened!

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  2. I'm hating my Neftali Feliz pick right now. Here's his line on Opening Day:

    0.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, WHIP = 12, ERA = 27.00

    FML.

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  3. I'm sorry. I really didn't mean to jinx them. As you know I am a Yankee supporter when they aren't facing the Mets. I don't harbor any ill-will towards them -unlike Jay towards the Mets, who seems to have an inferiority complex no matter who he roots for (probably has something to do with growing up in that little armpit state, New Jersey)

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  4. That is the first time I have ever heard a Mets fan declare that a Yankees fan has an inferiority complex. It's usually the other way around. Ari, remind me which team has 27 rings and which team has 2. I'm pretty sure I have a superiority complex ;-)

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  5. I really wanted to pick against Roy Halladay to buck the trend, but it was really hard. You're taking one of the best pitchers in baseball and putting him in the lesser league and in a weaker division. I think only injury is going to stop him from winning 20 games and being in the Top 3 of Cy Young contention.

    Two darkhorses that I had for that race: Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez.

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  6. I agree that Jimenez is a dark horse candidate. He's a hardthrowing young pitcher on a strong team in a relatively weak division.

    Not sure about Gallardo though. He went from 24 IP in 2008 to 185.2 in 2009. That's a huge jump for a 24-year-old. He could see a major dropoff this year, similar to Cole Hamels in 2009.

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  7. I forgot to respond to this, but here's the difference between Gallardo and Hamels.

    Gallardo pitched 121.1 innings in 2005 (minors), 155 innings in 2006 (minors), 188 innings in 2007 (between minors and majors), only 46.2 in 2008 because he was hurt, but then 185.2 last season in the majors. So he has the base to pitch that many innings and his jump was always by about 30 innings which is still OK.

    Hamels jumped from 183.1 in 2007 to 227.1 in 2008 PLUS 35 more innings in the playoffs that year. So he went from 183.1 to 262.1. When you throw 79 more innings than the season before after never doing that before in your career, trouble is waiting at your doorstep.

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  8. Just for comparison's sake, the only two pitches to throw 260 innings in any regular season the past 10 years were Randy Johnson in 2002 and Roy Halladay in 2003 and both missed significant time the year after. Arms just can't handle that type of load.

    Unless you're freaks of nature like Curt Schilling or CC Sabathia...

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  9. And as I just read, it looks like Gallardo got paid today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/gallardo-gets-paid

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