Thursday, November 4, 2010

Hot Stove Coal: Should the Yankees Trade An Outfielder? (Nick Swisher Edition)

I know, I know: the report today from Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News is that the Yankees are out of the Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth sweepstakes. But I don't believe that for a second. The Yankees were also out on Mark Teixeira and look what happened there. Plus, I've already gone through the rest of the outfield having covered Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson. So let's finish up the series and see if the Yankees should keep or trade their righfielder (and about-to-be-married-man), Nick Swisher.
Swish was a Yank for 2 postseasons; will he be around for a 3rd? (LoHud)

When the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher after the 2008 season, it was seen as a reclamation project. After putting up 3+ win seasons for the Athletics in 2007 and 2008, Swisher had struggled playing under Ozzie Guillen and looked like he needed a change of scenery. The Yankees acquired Swisher for three bags of baseballs players: Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. He was owed just over $22 M for the next three years or $31.3 M for the next four depending on the option the club controlled. Swisher was originally acquired to be the Yankees everyday first baseman until the Yankees surprised many and signed the aforementioned Teixeira to a long-term deal. Suddenly, with first filled by Tex and the OF/DH spots all covered, Swisher was relegated to a bench role. That quickly changed in April of 2009 as Swisher's hot start combined with a Xavier Nady injury got Swish into the lineup everyday in rightfield. And since that time he's been one of the Yankees most important players.

After putting up 3.3 WAR last season in helping the Yankees win the World Series, Nick Swisher had the best season of his career, putting up a WAR of 4.1. Although Swisher became more free swinging and walked less in 2010 (only 9.1% of the time, a far cry from 16% last season), he improved his average (career high .288) and slugging numbers and combined that with improved defense in right. He seemed to come into camp in much better shape and besides a late-season knee injury, seemed to be playing with much better comfort in the field. He was also moved around quite a bit in the lineup, filling in the second slot at times and moving further down in the order at others (he batted in every slot except lead-off).

Swisher's L/R splits in 2010 followed his career pattern where he's a power hitter from the left side (25 of 29 HR as a lefty), but has much better OBP numbers from the right side (.415 vs .331). Joe Girardi did a good job exploiting this, dropping Swish to #2 vs. lefties and moving him into better RBI spots against righties. And like Granderson, Kevin Long did a great job of working with Swisher to get his approach at the plate shorter and more calm.

Swisher's season mirrored a lot of Yankee hitters (minus Granderson) where his hitting just seemed to fall off towards the end. In the first 99 games he played, Swisher was hitting .301/.373/.555 with 22 HR and 50 XBH overall. In his last 51 games, he hit .262/.332/.421 with 7 HR and only 15 XBH overall. Part of this was due to a knee injury he suffered in late August when he fouled a ball off his knee in Toronto. Although he took off some time, Swisher's knee never really seemed to recover as he stayed day-to-day for basically the rest of the season and could be seen hobbling around even as the Yankees were preparing for the playoffs. Then he hit poorly in the playoffs which added to his .148/.258/.321 line as a playoff Yankee and some wondered whether that could be it for Swish in Pinstripes.

But while the Yankees acquired Swisher while he was in his worst year, should they turn around and trade him now that he's had his best year? I don't think so, though I wouldn't turn down a good trade offer for him. Swish is turning 30 next season and he's owed $9 M next season. If he continues his production, the Yankees have a very easy decision on a $10.25 M option for 2012 (with a $1 M buyout). Also, Swisher gets a limited-no trade clause starting in 2011 so trading him after the new year may be more difficult. Cliff Corcoran of Pinstriped Bible advocates not trading Swisher and Brien@IIATMS thinks he's going to stick around as well.

In my opinion? I don't think the Yankees want to trade Swisher. I don't think there's ever been someone who has been happier being a Yankee (and, yes, that includes Derek Jeter) and although he has some mental lapses and does bonehead things, Swisher is a really good player who fits very well into the Yankee lineup. He showed great commitment to the team to show up in the best shape of his life the year after he won the World Series and showed that he wanted to become a better player with his improved fielding work. Now that doesn't mean I would hold out if a top-flight starter was avialable because I don't think anyone would argue that Jayson Werth could replace Swisher in right (and I think is better than Swish). But I don't think the Yankees are going to get any offer like that. The only team I could see that would trade pitcher for an outfield bat would be the Rays and they aren't trading Matt Garza in the division for Swisher (whose contract is not as manageable if he's not on the Yankees).

So, to reiterate, I think that Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner all stay. I think that the Yankees would get the most value from trading Swisher and I think that Gardner would be the one to go if they got another outfielder but I still don't think that either is a possibility. Unless something greatly changes this off-season, I think the Yankees will start 2011 with the same outfield they started 2010.


What do you think? Let us know in the comments below

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