Stretch Drive Previews: The AL East

As we get closer to September--and therefore closer to the playoffs--we'll start off a series of previews of each division and the races going on in them. I'll then have 5 key questions to pose to our panel where they'll give their "expert" opinions on what will occur from here on out. Let's start off our preview with the American League East, a division which will most probably get the American League's Wild Card as well (Chicago is the closest team and they're 9.5 back with two AL East teams in front of them):

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	GBsum	Strk	R	RA	Rdiff	pythWL	Home	Road	1Run	last10	last20	last30
1	TBR	77	48	.616	---		W 3	5.0	3.8	1.2	78-47	39-24	38-24	22-22	8-2	11-9	20-10
2	NYY	77	48	.616	---		L 1	5.3	4.0	1.3	78-47	42-22	35-26	13-12	6-4	11-9	16-14
3	BOS	72	54	.571	5.5	11.0	W 3	5.1	4.6	0.5	69-57	39-25	33-29	21-20	6-4	12-8	18-12
4	TOR	65	59	.524	11.5	29.0	W 1	4.7	4.3	0.4	67-57	32-24	33-35	17-24	5-5	11-9	17-13
5	BAL	44	81	.352	33.0	115.0	L 1	3.7	5.2	-1.5	44-81	27-38	17-43	22-18	4-6	12-8	14-16
	Avg	67	58	.536				4.8	4.4		67-57	35-26	31-31	19-19	5-4	11-8	17-13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2010.

Tampa Bay Rays (56.1% chance at winning the division, 37.8% chance at winning the Wild Card, 93.9% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com)

The Rays are expected to win 99 games according to coolstandings.com which is the highest mark in the American League. Their slightly higher ranking is due to the fact they have an easier schedule down the stretch. They do have quite a few games left against the tough AL East, but outside of the division, they play 5 more against the Angels (who have all but given up), 3 against the Mariners, and 3 against the Royals to close out the season. The Rays overall have the 24th best batting average in the AL (.251), the 7th best wOBA (.331), the 4th lowest FIP (4.05), and the 6th best ERA (3.60). The hitting and pitching strengths are spread out: Carl Crawford leads in average and runs, Evan Longoria in RBI and OPS and Carlos Pena in HR, while David Price leads in Wins and ERA, James Shields in K, and Jeff Niemann in WHIP. Jay says "Tampa Bay will go as far as their starting pitching will take them. They are a major World Series threat."

The Rays biggest asset is their depth. When they had injuries this year, they were able to call up guys like Reid Birgnac, Matt Joyce, and Jeremy Hellickson and not missed a beat. And they still have a ton of firepower down on the farm with top prospect Desmond Jennings and, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, an extremely hard-throwing lefty Jake McGee who could be this season's David Price. And while their bullpen has been their bugaboo in the past, Joaquin Benoit (12.24 K/9, 7.00 K/BB, 1.36 ERA, 22 holds) and Rafael Soriano (38 saves, 1.79 ERA, 4.40 K/BB) have been rock-solid at the back-end. The Rays 3.57 bullpen FIP is the best mark in the league according to FanGraphs (and their 3.29 ERA is 2nd). The biggest question surrounding the Rays are if they'll take on the contract of the extra bat they seem to need to push them over the top (especially if that hitter's name is Manny Ramirez). The Rays and Yankees will determine who wins a tiebreaker with 7 games in the middle of September and a vengeful Manny may be just the thing the Rays lineup needs to put it over the top. And after Deadspin leaked some financial data that Tampa would not want their fans to know, the gesture of spending money at this juncture to put them over the top would be a smart thing to do.

New York Yankees (42.1 % chance at division, 49.4% chance at wild card, 91.5% chance at playoffs)

Will the starting pitching hold up? That's the biggest question mark for the Yankees in 2010 heading towards the end of the year, much in the same way it was in 2009. In 2009 people wondered if CC Sabathia could win in October, if A.J. Burnett could be consistent, if Andy Pettitte could come back from injury and pitch well in the playoffs, and if they Yankees had 4th starter they could rely on. Well the Yankees found a way to put everything together in 2009 and they seem to have even less questions in 2010. Sure A.J. and Andy are still question marks for the same reason, but CC Sabathia is on a historically dominant tear and fears of him not being able to pitch in the playoffs have been erased and Phil Hughes has stepped up to the point he would be either the Game 2 or Game 3 starter if the Yankees reach the playoffs. Well there's two problems here: 1) that's still an "if" and the Yankees need to find a way to win through a tough stretch run schedule that has them playing out of division at the White Sox, against the A's, and at the Rangers (in what could be a first-round matchup); and, 2) Hughes has an innings limit which is fast approaching. Ivan Nova was good and gives the Yankees a rotation alternative, but the guess here is that the Yankees are probably not going to go with a 6-man rotation.

When Alex Rodriguez and Lance Berkman return, the lineup is basically set (their .347 wOBA is second-best in all of baseball) and the bullpen (3.50 ERA and 3.90 FIP are in the top part of the AL with the Rays, White Sox, Twins and Rangers) seems to have gained confidence amongst Yankee fans, but the rotation remains a problem. How much does home-field advantage mean to the Yankees? We will see in September. If they can wrap up a playoff spot in mid-September, it will be interesting to see if they rest some of their veterans (like Posada, A-Rod, Jeter, etc.) or if they go for home-field advantage knowing that no one in baseball is better than them at home and that CC Sabathia hasn't lost at home in a regular season game in a very long time. This team is good on the road, but home-field advantage may mean more to the Yankees than the Rays (I'll ask the panel this later) The other question is how much will the Yankees be willing to flex their financial muscle to make sure that the Rays don't pick up any cheap hitters before September 1st? The question of whether the Yankees would put in a claim on Manny Ramirez once he hits waivers today is a really good one because if the Dodgers say so, they can unload him on the Yankees like Jose Canseco was unloaded on the Yankees by the then-Devil Rays in 2000. The Yankees were a very similar team that season and found a way to mesh together to win, but would they take a chance on it in 2010 with a very different clubhouse? I wouldn't think so (but we'll also ask the panel this).

Boston Red Sox (1.8% chance at the division, 10.4% chance at the wild card, 12.1% chance at the playoffs)

Most teams with a 12.1% chance at the playoffs would probably think their season coming to an end, but this isn't any team. This is a Red Sox team that has been ravaged by injuries and is one surge away from getting right back in this thing. This was a team that focused on defense and pitching with their off-season acquisitions but actually have the best wOBA in baseball (.349), but the second-worst bullpen in the Majors according to FIP (4.65). The Red Sox out-of-division opponents the rest of the way include the Mariners (5 games), White Sox (7 games), and A's so it's a mixed bag. The key for the Red Sox will be getting good pitching the rest of the way. Jon Lester (3.26 ERA, 3.24 FIP) and Clay Buchholz (2.26 ERA, 15-5 record) have stepped up so far in 2010, but John Lackey (who answered that challenge last night), Josh Beckett, and Dice-K need to be big the rest of the way. In the bullpen, they need Jonathan Papelbon to be more of a sure thing and Daniel Bard (1.87 ERA, 9.36 K/9) continue to do his thing.

They also need to figure out how much they want to play the block game with Tampa Bay. As Buster Olney wrote today on ESPN, the Red Sox put a claim in on Johnny Damon to block him from going to Tampa, but knowing that if he wanted to, he could end up in their outfield and may be a good fit. If he decides not to go, will they do the same with Manny? Although Manny (like Damon) left on bad terms, it may be worth a month of headaches to see if he can be inspired playing with his buddy David Ortiz and filling a hole left by the outfield injuries the Red Sox have encountered. For the Red Sox to make a game of this, they are going to have to go on a tear and hope that they can catch Tampa Bay and New York in head-to-head matchups. Is that too much for this injury-ravaged team? It's possible, but I don't think anyone is willing to count them--or David Ortiz or Adrian Beltre--out anymore. I think they'll be here until the end.

Toronto Blue Jays (0.8% chance of making the playoffs)

Toronto has played really well against most of the league but has stunk up the joint against the Red Sox. This combined with the fact they play in the toughest division in baseball has hampered their ability to keep within this race. Despite being 6 games over .500, at 11.5 games back, the Blue Jays have to be thinking about next year. They have some really good things to build on including some really good, young pitchers in Shaun Marcum (3.70 ERA, 3.82 SO/BB), Ricky Romero (3.50 ERA, 0.6 HR/9), and Brandon Morrow (10.8 K/9) leading the way and some bounce-back hitting candidates in Adam Lind (ugly .233/.291/.406 line and 17 HR after .305/.370/.562 line and 35 HR in '09) and Aaron Hill (.208/.278/.382 and 18 HR after .286/.330/.499 and 36 HR '09) to go along with 40-HR breakout (and still surging) Jose Bautista and Yunel Escobar (who has hit better since joining Toronto). The Blue Jays will be looking to play spoiler a lot down the stretch as they play out manager Cito Gaston's last season. Jay agrees saying "Toronto is going to play a big role in determining the outcome of the AL East contenders."

Baltimore Orioles (no chance)

Baltimore was supposed to be in Toronto's spot this season, but they have disappointed. Buck Showalter is there to make a difference and hopefully for the O's, that re-energizes guys like Adam Jones (.307/.373/.408 August improves on a dismal year), Matt Wieters (.689 OPS in 2010 after .753 in '09) and Nick Markakis (only 1.8 WAR after 6.3 WAR in 2008). It will be hard for this team to compete in the AL East without better pitching, but maybe a year under Brian Matusz belt will help him be better in 2011.

5 Questions:

1) Each of the top 4 AL East teams have an MVP-caliber infielder. The Rays have Evan Longoria, the Jays have Jose Bautista, the Sox have Adrian Beltre, and the Yankees have Robinson Cano. Which team would suffer most if you took away that player?

Sarah: "The Blue Jays and Jose Bautista. Last night certainly showed that."

Ben: "I'm going with Beltre. While Longoria is by far the Rays' most important offensive weapon, it has been their pitching that has kept them in the race. Beltre has been far more than a pleasant surprise for the Sox. On a team ravished by injuries, lacking offense, and lacking the pitching depth that they thought they had, Beltre as important a player for them as any other on the team. Bautista has put up great numbers on a bad team. Guarantee that if you remove Bautista from the Blue Jays you wouldn't notice a difference in the team's performance. And as for Cano, while he has been an MVP candidate all year, he has so much offensive talent around him."

Jay: "The Red Sox. Beltre is leading the team in batting average (.323), hits (151), RBI (86), and career testicular ruptures (1). With Boston's loss of Kevin Youkilis for the season, Beltre is even more important. In Youk's absence, Beltre has taken over the team lead in SLG% (.559) and OPS (.922). Boston's remaining hopes of making the playoffs would be dashed if Beltre was taken away from their lineup."

My opinion: I'm going with Beltre here. Cano has been MVP-caliber, Jose Bautista is the Jays offense, and Evan Longoria would be a top-3 pick if you were starting a team, but the Red Sox have been ravaged by injuries, yet no Beltre would probably be the final hit to sink their battleship (and he is MVP-caliber as well).

2) Do you think the Yankees, Rays and/or Red Sox will put a waiver claim on Manny Ramirez when he finally hits the wire to keep him away from the other teams/get him for themselves?

Ben: "Interesting question. I think the Rays might. He would fill their need at DH and provide a much needed power boost for that lineup. Manny wore out his welcome in Boston and I think their are still a few players in that clubhouse who remember when he quit on them in 2008. The Yankees don't need any more offense and we are past the days of George Steinbrenner taking on players to keep them away from the enemy."

Jay: "I can't see the Red Sox revisiting that situation. Too much baggage. I can't see the Yankees putting in a claim either. He is a walking, talking distraction and frankly, their hitting is not the problem. (Why do you need Manny if you've already gotten positive contributions from your latest and oh-so-peaceful OF acquisition, Austin Kearns? They need another starting pitcher much more.) The Rays, on the other hand, seem feasible. Maybe they would stick his bat at DH in place of Willy Aybar, who is hitting .243/.315/.365. I'd say that's a big upgrade for them, especially in the postseason."

Sarah: "Now that Sox tried on Damon, doubt they will on Manny - maybe the Rays?"

My opinion: It may not matter. MLBTradeRumors is reporting that the White Sox are putting in a claim. I think that regardless of what they're planning to do, all three AL East teams should put in a claim of their own. Manny is the type of difference-maker who you do not want reaching the other team--especially not for cheap.

3) Is home-field advantage more important for the Yankees or the Rays?

Jay: "The Yankees. There's nothing like playoff baseball at Yankee Stadium -- the fans, the atmosphere, the history (team's not the new ballpark's), and everyone will be eager to defend their championship last season. The Yankees also have the 2nd best home record in MLB at 42-22, while the Rays are 11th at 39-24. One last thing: CC Sabathia is 10-0 in 13 starts at home this season with a 2.46 ERA. Having him pitch Game 1 at home would be huge for the Yankees."

Sarah: "Difference between home/road wins and losses is so small - I'd say its a wash"

Ben: "I'm going to go with the Yankees. CC Sabathia is 10-0 at home this year and since he is your ace you want to start him the first game of a series."

My opinion: Yankees. The Rays play in a place I don't think they even understand. Yankee Stadium is still one of the best home-field advantages in baseball and the Yankees are a team built for its dimensions.

4) With their top-5 pitchers healthy, with starting staff is the best in the AL East?

Sarah: "Sox - healthy being the key word there."

Ben: "I'd go with the Rays. Price, Garza, Niemann, and Davis. I feel like Josh Beckett is just so unpredictable these days and John Lackey has been a disappointment. Buchholtz and Lester are great starting pitchers but after them it's really a crapshoot. Right now, the Yankees have CC, Phil Hughes, and Andy Pettitte. However, we can't predict who will be healthy come October."

Jay: "Top-to-bottom, when healthy, it's the Red Sox. Lester and Buchholz are a powerful and young righty-lefty combination, especially now that Buchholz has come into his own and finally appears comfortable with his stuff. Add in the veteran combination of Lackey and Beckett, who can both be dominant when healthy, and you've got 4 strong playoff starters. Dice-K is a serviceable back end of the rotation starter, who tosses in the occasional strong outing. Tampa Bay is a close second. Their top three of David Price, Matt Garza, and Jeff Niemann are quite impressive. The back end is much rougher with James Shields and Wade Davis (Hellickson is not officially a part of this rotation yet) so they don't surpass Boston right now"

My opinion: I'm going to side with Ben and say the Rays, though it's really, really close (heck, Toronto could be thrown into the equation as well as the Yankees)

5) Who wins the AL East/Wild Card?

Ben: "I think the Yanks hold on to win the AL East. Who says the Wild Card has to come out of the East? If I had to put money down I'll take the Rays, buy it's too close to call."

Jay: "Tampa wins the AL East, Yankees win the Wild Card. Look at the Yankees' schedule in September. Especially those last 13 games. 6 against Boston, 4 against Tampa, and 3 road games in Toronto, who will be looking to spoil everyone's playoff plans. What about the week before that stretch? Ohhhh, just 3 games in Texas and another 3 in Tampa Bay. That's brutal. By comparison, the Rays finish with 10 games against Seattle, Baltimore, and Kansas City. Earlier in the month, they get the sub-.500 Angels for three games in between the two aforementioned series against the Yankees. Not to say that they have a cakewalk, but the difference between the two clubs is only 1 game, and I think the Yankees have a tougher schedule towards the end of September, so I'm going to predict they flip flop with TB in first and the Yanks taking the WC."

Sarah: "Breaks my heart to say this - Yankees win the division, Rays win the Wild Card"

My opinion: Tampa takes the division and the Yankees win the Wild Card with the Red Sox falling about 3 games out in the end.

This division is an exciting one and will be a fun stretch drive with a virtual home-and-home series in Mid-September between the Yankees and Rays and then the same thing at the end of the season between the Yankees and Red Sox. One thing's for certain, it will go down to the wire and these teams won't relent until the very end. Will that hurt them in October or make them stronger for the Playoffs? Time will tell but the fact that the AL East has won the pennant 12 out of the last 17 years should tell you something about the strength of this division.