Stretch Drive Previews: The AL Central

We started in the AL East and now we head to the American League Central for our Stretch Drive Previews series. This is a division which has had two pennant winner in the past dozen years (the 2005 White Sox and the 2006 Tigers)  and has only captured the Wild Card once (2006 when Detroit and Minnesota both made it). An AL Central playoff team has played the AL East in the playoffs each of the last 7 years, advancing only in 2005 and 2006. With that in mind, let's take a look at the September outlooks for the AL Central teams (% slashes per team are division/wild card/overall playoffs):

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	Strk	R	RA	Rdiff	pythWL	Home	Road	1Run	≥.500	<.500	last10	last20	last30
1	MIN	76	56	.576	---	W 1	4.8	4.0	0.8	77-55	41-22	35-34	24-20	28-27	48-29	5-5	13-7	20-10
2	CHW	72	60	.545	4.0	W 2	4.8	4.2	0.6	74-58	38-27	34-33	21-21	22-29	50-31	6-4	9-11	14-16
3	DET	65	67	.492	11.0	L 1	4.5	4.6	-0.1	65-67	43-25	22-42	14-20	26-40	39-27	6-4	11-9	13-17
4	KCR	56	76	.424	20.0	W 1	4.1	5.3	-1.2	51-81	30-34	26-42	25-25	28-44	28-32	4-6	9-11	14-16
5	CLE	53	79	.402	23.0	L 3	4.0	4.9	-0.9	54-78	29-38	24-41	19-17	31-45	22-34	3-7	6-14	11-19
	Avg	64	67	.488			4.4	4.6		64-67	36-29	28-38	20-20	27-37	37-30	4-5	9-10	14-15

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/1/2010.

Minnesota Twins (85.9% / 0.2% / 86.1% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com, 89.4% / 0.1% / 89.6% chances according to Baseball Prospectus, and 86.6% / <.1% / 86.7% according to PECOTA)

Will the addition of Manny Ramirez make a difference in this race? (CBC)

Last year Minnesota tracked down Detroit at the very end of the season to stage one of the greatest end-of-season comebacks in the Wild Card era. This year, it's Minnesota who tries not to collapse and give up their AL Central lead. While the Red Sox, Phillies and others have been praised for their play despite injuries, the Twins may be even more reslient. They lost All-Star closer Joe Nathan before the season even started and have had 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau for only 81 games (though he amazingly still is tied for the team lead in HR). And yet they're cruising right along in the AL Central. Part of that certainly has to do with a starting pitching staff anchored by Carl Pavano (15-10, 3.52 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.94 xFIP) and Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.41 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 9.72 K/9) and really good defense. But a lot of credit has to go to the depth of the lineup which has forged ahead and put together the 3rd highest wOBA and Runs Above Average (according to FanGraphs) in the majors behind only the Yankees and Red Sox. This is impressive in what has been a pitching-friendly, home-run-suppressing Target Field (where they play Texas, Oakland, and Toronto--their three out-of-division opponents the rest of the way).

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Stretch Drive Previews: The AL East

As we get closer to September--and therefore closer to the playoffs--we'll start off a series of previews of each division and the races going on in them. I'll then have 5 key questions to pose to our panel where they'll give their "expert" opinions on what will occur from here on out. Let's start off our preview with the American League East, a division which will most probably get the American League's Wild Card as well (Chicago is the closest team and they're 9.5 back with two AL East teams in front of them):

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	GBsum	Strk	R	RA	Rdiff	pythWL	Home	Road	1Run	last10	last20	last30
1	TBR	77	48	.616	---		W 3	5.0	3.8	1.2	78-47	39-24	38-24	22-22	8-2	11-9	20-10
2	NYY	77	48	.616	---		L 1	5.3	4.0	1.3	78-47	42-22	35-26	13-12	6-4	11-9	16-14
3	BOS	72	54	.571	5.5	11.0	W 3	5.1	4.6	0.5	69-57	39-25	33-29	21-20	6-4	12-8	18-12
4	TOR	65	59	.524	11.5	29.0	W 1	4.7	4.3	0.4	67-57	32-24	33-35	17-24	5-5	11-9	17-13
5	BAL	44	81	.352	33.0	115.0	L 1	3.7	5.2	-1.5	44-81	27-38	17-43	22-18	4-6	12-8	14-16
	Avg	67	58	.536				4.8	4.4		67-57	35-26	31-31	19-19	5-4	11-8	17-13

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/24/2010.

Tampa Bay Rays (56.1% chance at winning the division, 37.8% chance at winning the Wild Card, 93.9% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com)

The Rays are expected to win 99 games according to coolstandings.com which is the highest mark in the American League. Their slightly higher ranking is due to the fact they have an easier schedule down the stretch. They do have quite a few games left against the tough AL East, but outside of the division, they play 5 more against the Angels (who have all but given up), 3 against the Mariners, and 3 against the Royals to close out the season. The Rays overall have the 24th best batting average in the AL (.251), the 7th best wOBA (.331), the 4th lowest FIP (4.05), and the 6th best ERA (3.60). The hitting and pitching strengths are spread out: Carl Crawford leads in average and runs, Evan Longoria in RBI and OPS and Carlos Pena in HR, while David Price leads in Wins and ERA, James Shields in K, and Jeff Niemann in WHIP. Jay says "Tampa Bay will go as far as their starting pitching will take them. They are a major World Series threat."

The Rays biggest asset is their depth. When they had injuries this year, they were able to call up guys like Reid Birgnac, Matt Joyce, and Jeremy Hellickson and not missed a beat. And they still have a ton of firepower down on the farm with top prospect Desmond Jennings and, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, an extremely hard-throwing lefty Jake McGee who could be this season's David Price. And while their bullpen has been their bugaboo in the past, Joaquin Benoit (12.24 K/9, 7.00 K/BB, 1.36 ERA, 22 holds) and Rafael Soriano (38 saves, 1.79 ERA, 4.40 K/BB) have been rock-solid at the back-end. The Rays 3.57 bullpen FIP is the best mark in the league according to FanGraphs (and their 3.29 ERA is 2nd). The biggest question surrounding the Rays are if they'll take on the contract of the extra bat they seem to need to push them over the top (especially if that hitter's name is Manny Ramirez). The Rays and Yankees will determine who wins a tiebreaker with 7 games in the middle of September and a vengeful Manny may be just the thing the Rays lineup needs to put it over the top. And after Deadspin leaked some financial data that Tampa would not want their fans to know, the gesture of spending money at this juncture to put them over the top would be a smart thing to do.

New York Yankees (42.1 % chance at division, 49.4% chance at wild card, 91.5% chance at playoffs)

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