The Major League Baseball All-Star Game in baseball is probably not a game that should count and sometimes the fans seem to get the wrong players elected--but then again, that doesn't make it different than any other form of democracy. And sometimes, people certainly get picked for the wrong reasons as The Common Man showed last week. In the end, the Mid-Summer Classic is all about being an exhibition of baseball's best players. So I'm going to take only the best players, rule-about-taking-one-player-per-team be damned! Here's my list of the best candidates for the All-Star Game starting with the AL guys who will be swinging the bat (all stats min 100 PAs):
Catcher: Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, and Joe Mauer. Mauer is the leading vote getter for all of Major League Baseball so he's in without a doubt. But if you were picking a player on pure stats, this wouldn't be the year to take Mauer at first glance (his numbers perfectly mirror his 2007 output). But when you drill down, Mauer has still had a pretty great season and is worth of an All-Star nod. Although not as adept defensively, Posada and Martinez may beat Mauer with the bat this year. Although he's been battling injuries (and therefore spent quite a bit of time at DH as well as only racked up 171 PAs), Posada leads all the catchers in OPS (slash lines of .287/.398/.538) and wOBA (.406 to Martinez's .363 and Mauer's .356). Martinez leads all catchers with 29 XBH so far this season. Amazingly (considering his lack of speed), one stat that favors Jorge this season is GIDP: Mauer has 14, Martinez 9 and Posada 1. "Counting" stats: Mauer .304 avg, 3 HR, 21 RBI; Martinez .291 avg, 9 HR, 37 RBI; Posada .287 avg, 9 HR, 25 RBI. Honorable Mentions: John Buck (.271/.309/.532, .356 wOBA, 12 HR, 38 RBI) and Mike Napoli (.251/.329/.478, .354 wOBA, 11 HR, 27 RBI). Picture from The Star-Ledger.
Firstbase: Justin Morneau, Miguel Cabrera and Kevin Youkilis. All three players are having monster years and all three are early candidates for MVP. Morneau's numbers are off the charts (almost Mauer like) with a ridiculous slash line of .340/.448/.622 and a wOBA of .452 to go along with 15 HR and 47 RBI. That wOBA is the highest (among all players who have qualified for the batting title) in the Majors. Second is Youk (.440) and third is Cabrera (.437). Mourneau's OPS of 1.070 leads all 1Bs trailed by Cabrera (1.041) and Youkilis (1.026). The WAR numbers tell the difference thus far though. Due to extremely positive fielding numbers, Morneau takes the lead with 4.3, Youkilis is seen about even and Cabrera is marked down for his defense. Cabrera leads in the counting stats while Youkilis has been hitting the tar out of the ball recently for the surging Red Sox. Morneau has the lead and should start but the other two should be named replacements on the team. Counting stats: Morneau .340 avg, 15 HR, 47 RBI; Cabrera .328 avg, 19 HR, 60 RBI; Youkilis .312 avg, 14 HR, 47 RBI. Honorable Mentions: Paul Konerko (.296/.396/.574, 17 HR, 51 RBI, .413 wOBA) and Billy Butler (.330/.383/.491, 7 HR, 37 RBI, .381 wOBA). Picture from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Secondbase: Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia got his MVP award two years ago but it could be his division rival, Cano taking it home this year. Cano's my early AL MVP pick slightly edging out the three 1Bs above. He's hitting .365/.414/.602 with 14 HR, 49 RBI, a .433 wOBA, hitting well with RISP, and playing excellent defense according to many defensive metrics. Even Lady Gaga is a fan. Pedroia "The Destroyah" has been continuing his "laser show" and added his usual good defense to go along with it. At .284/.358/.468 and a .364 wOBA he's still light years behind Cano, but it's good enough to be second best at second base in the American League this year. Counting Stats: Cano .365 avg, 14 HR, 49 RBI; Pedroia .284 avg, 9 HR, 36 RBI, 8 SB (1 CS). Honorable Mentions: Ty Wigginton (.274/.361/.487, 13 HR, 39 RBI, .368 wOBA) and Orlando Hudson (.292/.362/.401, 5 SB to 0 CS and the top 2B UZR).
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez and Derek Jeter. Out of no place (well, except for maybe the 2003 World Series) Alex Gonzalez has developed into a power hitter. He leads the American League shortstop race in both OPS (.802) and wOBA (.347) as well as HR (13) and XBH (31). Jeter is #2 among AL players in overall voting but he will be the starter at SS and although he's had a down season, he's probably a slightly better choice than Marco Scutaro (although when you factor in defense, it's basically a wash, though Jeter does have the speed factor as well). Jeter is well off his 2009 pace (his OPS has dropped 115 points), but it's still a good year for most shortstops when you hit .280/.337/.419 with a .336 wOBA and already has 8 HR and 39 RBI (tops among AL SS). Counting stats: Gonzalez .269 avg, 13 HR, 38 RBI; Jeter .280, 8 HR, 39 RBI. Honorable Mentions: Marco Scutaro (his 1.8 WAR leads all AL SS) and Josh Wilson (4th in OPS and 3rd in wOBA gets him a mention on this list).
Thirdbase: Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre. I was just as shocked writing Beltre's name there as some of you may be reading it (especially at the expense of A-Rod). But while Longoria is definitely the #1 3B in the American League (he's tops among AL 3B in almost every major offensive category including SB), Beltre is right there with him. The Red Sox thought they could take Beltre, put him in Fenway and he would hit and they were right. He's put up a very impressive .336/.371/.528 line with 10 HR, 48 RBI, and a .389 wOBA. To go along with that, Beltre is one of--if not the best--defensive 3rd basemen in the American League giving him a WAR of 3.0 at this point. Definitely All-Star worthy. Counting Stats: Longoria .304 avg, 12 HR, 52 RBI; Beltre .336 avg, 10 HR, 48 RBI. Honorable Mentions: Michael Young (.309/.358/.476, 31 XBH, 8 HR, 44 RBI, .360 wOBA) and A-Rod (.276/.348/.459, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .360 wOBA in only 279 PAs). Picture from masslive.com
Leftfield: Josh Hamilton, Carl Crawford, and Brett Gardner. I know that the All Stars are picked by OF and not by OF position. I also know Gardner is the choice that most people are going to be surprised with here, but I'm sticking with him (and taking a lot of LF who can play other OF positions). Among LF who qualify for the batting title, only Hamilton has a higher wOBA than Garnder's. Yes, that includes Crawford. And while Crawford has one more steal than Gardner to lead the AL OFs, Gardner has swiped his bags at a much better rate (over 85%) and Garnder leads all AL LFs in OBP (.404). Hamilton's .337/.381/.600 has been buoyed by an otherworldly June, but his .422 wOBA, 16 HR, and 52 RBI not only make him a legit All Star (and the voters have taken notice putting him in the top 3 with Ichiro and Crawford) but an MVP candidate as well. This is not taking anything away from Crawford whose amazing OF defense (15.6 UZR so far) gives him a WAR of 3.7 ranking him far ahead of the competition. Counting Stats: Hamilton .337 avg, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB; Crawford .307 avg, 7 HR, 38 RBI, 24 SB; Gardner .324 avg, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 23 SB. Honorable Mentions: Brennan Boesch (only 190 PAs but his OPS of 1.001 and his wOBA of .428 is higher than any AL LF) and Delmon Young (.306/.343/.502 with 8 HR, 43 RBI and a .363 wOBA).
Centerfield: Alex Rios. I took Garnder in leftfield mostly just to compare him to Crawford, but he's equally as qualified in center to be the backup. Rios, though, is by far the best AL CF in 2010. He leads the AL CF race at all the slash categories hitting .317/.337/.558 with a .409 wOBA. He's done it with speed (20 SB), power (13 HR, .242 ISO), and all while playing great defense (6.4 UZR). The White Sox took a flyer on him last season and he's been a tremendous player for them in 2010 putting up a WAR of 3.4. Counting Stats: .317 avg, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 20 SB. Honorable Mentions: Torii Hunter (.293/.367/.528, with 12 HR, 50 RBI, and a .378 wOBA, but 6 SB to 7 CS and negative UZR in 2010), Vernon Wells (.274/.318/.551, 16 HR, 42 RBI, a .373 wOBA but has slowed down greatly from his fast start), and Austin Jackson (2nd in WAR among AL CF but his slowing bat will keep him out of the All Star Game).
Rightfield: Nelson Cruz, Magglio Ordonez, and Nick Swisher. The one position I really hesitated at before putting these three. Jose Bautista, David DeJesus, Shin-Soo Choo, Ichiro Suzuki, J.D. Drew, Ben Zobrist and others were all in the running. Cruz I was going to eliminate due to the fact he's only had 126 PAs but he's put up insane numbers in that span with a .327/.405/.729 line, 10 HR, 34 RBI, and a .469 wOBA. That's the highest OPS and wOBA in the AL. Magglio has put up a .333/.408/.522 line with 9 HR and 47 RBI and both his wOBA (.407) and OPS (.930) are second in the AL RF (as is his 2.7 WAR). The third choice was the toughest. I went with--in a very biased pick--Nick Swisher. Swisher is 3rd among AL RF in OPS with .888 mark (.296/.378/.510) and has 11 HR and 44 RBI to go along with that. Could one of the guys listed above have been a better choice than Swisher? Maybe, but I don't think so. Tough decision, but I'm going to pick those three for the Mid-Summer Classic. Counting Stats: Cruz .327 avg, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 7 SB; Ordonez .333 avg, 9 HR, 47 RBI; Swisher .296 avg, 11 HR, 44 RBI Honorable Mentions: Bautista (18 HR, 46 RBI, .378 wOBA, but subpar defense), DeJesus (.323/.395/.485, .384 wOBA), Choo (.289/.388/.445, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 11 SB to 2 CS, .373 wOBA, 2.5 WAR), Ichiro (.336 avg, 95 hits, 20 SB, .366 wOBA, 3rd in WAR at 2.6 due to extremely good defense), Drew (8 HR, 37 RBI, .360 wOBA, 2.0 WAR), Zobrist (.306 avg, .361 wOBA, tops among AL RF in WAR at 2.9 due to league-best defense). Picture from NBC Sports
Designated Hitter: Vladamir Guerrero and David Ortiz. Guerrero will be returning to Anaheim this year as an All Star. In the friendly confines of Arlington, Guerrero has put up a .327/.366/.554 line with 15 HR, 57 RBI, and a .390 wOBA (Jorge Posada actually leads this group in wOBA but Guerrero is first among true DHs) reminding many of his MVP heyday. Despite Ortiz's slow start, he's certainly shown he's back with the bat. Almost identical HR, OBP and SLG numbers to Guerrero's (Ortiz has one more SLG point than Vlad), Ortiz has certainly made the Red Sox have to think about resigning him after the season is over. I could have taken any of the honorable mentions above at RF for this second spot, but I'm not sure than Ortiz doesn't deserve it more with his bat so far in 2010. Counting Stats: Guerrero .327 avg, 15 HR, 56 RBI, 4 SB; Ortiz .260 avg, 15 HR, 46 RBI. Honorable Mention: Jim Thome (.897 OPS, .387 wOBA rank right behind Ortiz and Guerrero but only 129 PA) and Luke Scott (.852 OPS, .372 wOBA is right behind Thome and has 10 HR to go along with that).
So what do you think? Agree or disagree with my picks? Let me know in the comments below. In the next post we'll debate the NL All Star hitters as well as whether Troy Tulowitzki should be named to the All Star game even though he can't play.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
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All three catchers are worthy in comparison to the rest of the league. Mauer's power numbers are down, Posada has been DHing quite a bit and also missed some time, and Martinez' defense has been atrocious.
ReplyDeleteAll three first basemen are having phenomenal seasons. I give the edge to Mourneau, but as far as I'm concerned, throw the three names in a hat and pick one out.
Didn't realize Delmon Young was having a productive year.
Jose Bautista will probably make the team simply because of the home run production, but the rest of his numbers really aren't that impressive.
I believe the Red Sox have a team option on Ortiz for 2011, so they could keep him around for one more season without resigning him though I'm sure he'd raise a stink about it.
ReplyDeleteBeltre is up to .349 and 12 HRs right now. He's definitely been better than expected, no doubt about that. I think the Yankees would be wise to give A-Rod a few days off before and after the break to give that hip a rest.