Sunday, January 23, 2011

NYaT Roundtable: AFC Championship Picks

Yesterday we gave our AFC Championship picks and today we're going to pick the AFC Championship game. The Jets and Steelers also played once this season with that game being taken by the Jets. Tonight is the rematch in Pittsburgh, but this time with Troy Polamalu in uniform. Will that make a difference? Let's see what our roundtable had to say:
Can Sanchez lead the Jets to the Super Bowl this time around? (Reuters)

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers favored by 3.5)

Russell: First of all I'd like to welcome everybody back onto the Jets bandwagon, and I'd like to add that more people will be joining us after the Jets beat the Steelers on Sunday. The Jets are soaring after the incredible win against the Patsies and fly in to Pittsburgh to face a team that is very similar to the Jets. Both teams have solid receivers, and running backs and while the Steelers have an advantage at QB, defense wins championships and the Jets D is better then the Steelers O. It will be hard to score points for both sides, but I look for the Jets to win a low scoring battle where Sanchez and the offense will make enough plays to win. Also the football Gods wouldn't tease me by having the Jets go to the AFC championship game 2 years in a row and lose both games, right? Jets

Ben P: If it's any comfort to Jets fans, I've picked against them in the two previous playoff rounds as well. The Jets have played and won two very emotional games. First they beat the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year and then they played their big bad bully of a division rival. Will they have anything left this week? The Jets were able to beat the Steelers earlier this year, but in that game the Steelers were without Polamalu and the Jets scored on a kickoff return and had a safety (fluky much). The Steelers will be able to shut down the Jets running game and force Sanchez to beat them. Sanchez was great last week, but the Steelers will put more pressure on him than the Pats did and will be able to do a better job exposing the loss of Damien Woody at Right Tackle. The Jets Defense has played well against the passing offenses of the Colts and Pats, but the Steelers have a wealth of speed at the receiver position that those other teams didn't. There are few schemes that can slow down Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders. It'll be cold in Pittsburgh. Coach Ryan better make sure his players bring an extra pair of socks. Steelers

Sarah: Steelers/Pats - Oh wait, the Pats aren't in? THE JETS WON LAST WEEK? I abstain. No pick.

Jay: While I refuse to compare the Jets' run this year to the Giants' road winning streak leading up to Super Bowl 42, I have to hand it to Rex Ryan and his team. They have defeated Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road in back-to-back weeks. No easy task. Now all they have to do is finish the job in Pittsburgh against two-time SB champ Ben Roethlisberger. BFD. I actually think the Jets can do it. The key is winning the battle for time of possession by controlling the ball on the ground. If the offensive can eliminate turnovers and Greene/LT can consistently gain yardage, I think the Jets will win. But like the cliche goes, you can't stop Roethlisberger, you can only hope to contain him. Making sure Big Ben doesn't burn them will be the Jets' second key. If they can do that, I think the Jets win in a close game. Jets

Elissa: Jets and Steelers are a toss up b/c of their great defenses. I think Big Ben will give the Jets D more problems than Brady did last week b/c he doesn't go down as easy, but I think if the Jets don't turn the ball over (just like their play last week) they'll beat out the Steelers. Jets

Andrew: The Jets built their team this past off-season to beat the Colts--and they did so. Rex Ryan came in as Jets coach and said the goal was to beat the Patriots--and they did so. You wonder after two emotional wins if the Jets can get back up for yet another game? I'm not so sure they can. They played their championship game last week. They've beaten two teams with great offenses. Now they'll have to find a way to beat one with a great defense. I don't think it'll be so easy for the Jets. Mark Sanchez has been great so far but both the Pats and the Colts rank near the bottom half of the league on defense while the Steelers are probably the best. Sanchez has had success because of the threat of the run game. I don't think the Jets will have the same success running the ball in this game. The Jets have been great on the road but I fear their season will end once again in the AFC Championship game. Steelers

X Factor

Jets

Russell: Mark Sanchez - The Steelers have a great run defense so the Jets can't go all ground and pound. Sanchez played great against the Pats, and if he rekindles that performance then the Jets will be on their way to Dallas.

Ben P: LaDainian Tomlinson

Jay: Greene/LT combo must take the pressure off Sanchez so he doesn't need to singlehandedly win the game for the Jets.

Andrew: Jets running game. Tony Richardson needs to create space for LDT and Greene to run the ball or else it will be a LONG day for Mark Sanchez running away from Steelers blitzers. Play action doesn't work if you can't sell the run.

Steelers

Ben P: LaMarr Woodley

Jay: Mike Wallace must beat Darrelle Revis at least once for a big gain or TD.

Andrew: Pittsburgh's D-Line. Pittsburgh's defensive line must get penetration into the Jets backfield.

Biggest Weakness

Steelers

Jay: Rashard Mendenhall. 20 carries for 46 yards last week. He scored twice from short range, but he needs to establish himself better.

Ben P: Offensive Line

Russell: Special Teams- The Steelers out gained the Jets and had their offense outscore them in the week 15 matchup, and still lost. Why? Special Teams. Brad Smith took the opening kickoff 97 yards to the house, and in what will probably be a close game, a kickoff return TD or missed field goal can make all the difference. Pittsburgh has struggled all year at special teams, and they have to play better then they did in week 15, even with the equally dangerous Antonio Cromartie returning kicks.

Andrew: Running Game. It's not a bad running game as much as I see it as the Steelers biggest weakness. They don't need the run as much as the Jets do...but they still need to buy some time for Big Ben. 

Jets

Russell: Nick Folk- After blowing a 30 yarder last week its safe to say I have no confidence in Folk in the kicker graveyard that is Heinz field. Folk was 30-39 in the regular season, and after missing the kick last week, if he's on for a big kick, I'll probably be hiding behind the couch, hands over my eyes.

Ben P: Pass Rush

Jay: Offensive line -- Sanchez can't make plays with a pass rush in his face. Especially since Pittsburgh loves to blitz.

Andrew: Nick Folk - I think this game will be won by a field goal and if that has to be kicked by Nick Folk, does any Jets fan have faith? I don't think so. That may be an issue in what's sure to be a close game.

What do you think? Will the Jets be left on the doorstep two years in a row or will they finally make the Super Bowl again? Let us know in the comments below.

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