NYaT Roundtable: Wild Card Round Picks

I was watching ESPN the other day and the "Fact or Fiction" question came on the screen that read: "No home team will win a Wild Card game." I was shocked seeing that until I realized that this prediction could really come to fruition. Now the real debate starts is this because of the lack of homefield advantage or the fact that some divisions are not equal to others. I side with the latter but I think we'll see some interesting things this weekend as we do every playoffs. If you're still trying to figure out who is going to win this weekend, here's some thoughts for you from Ben P, Ari, Jay and myself:

Can Marc Sanchez make magic happen on the road again? (NY Mag)

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (Colts favored by 2.5)

Ben P says: "The Colts are vulnerable with their injuries, but I don't think the Jets have the defense to pull this out. You can't beat Manning without pressure, but the Jets can't apply pressure unless they blitz and Manning eats up the blitz like Rex Ryan eats up feet. On the other side of the ball the Jets lack consistency on offense on home field is a key here for the Colts." Colts

Ari says: "Because I want to hear Rex Ryan yap for another week" Jets

Jay says: "The Colts overcame a four-point halftime deficit to beat the Jets in last season's AFC Championship game.  In seeking revenge in this year's playoff rematch, Rex Ryan says "it's personal."  I believe him.  Mark Sanchez has improved and shown even more poise than he did last year.  Darrelle Revis should do a good job of locking down Reggie Wayne, which leaves Peyton Manning with fewer options than ever before in the playoffs, thanks to injuries to Austin Collie and Dallas Clark.  Since the Colts' only rushing options are a still-recovering Joseph Addai (89 yards in his last 2 games) and a still-developing Donald Brown (UConn in the house!), I think the Colts will be overmatched offensively.  As long as the Jets protect Sanchez from Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, I think the Jets will escape from Indy with a close win." Jets

My opinion: Last year I had my same issues with the Jets: a mediocre QB, an overrated defense (and the Jets passing D is not as good as last year), and a team lucky to even be in the dance. But after watching the Jets prove me wrong last year, I'm not going to discount them--even with some holes in the secondary. It's not just that the Colts are banged up (and they certainly are) but the fact that they're not as good a team this year as they've been in the past. Like The Office, the Colts are just expected to be good despite the fact that the leading man and all the people around him have declined. The Colts pass rush is weak and if you're not going to get to Mark Sanchez, you're not going to beat the Jets. The Colts beat exactly one playoff team (the Chiefs) and really just breezed through an easy schedule. I wouldn't be shocked if they won, but I'm going with my man Russell and picking the J-E-T-S. Jets


Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles favored by 3)

Jay says: "Does anyone really want to play the Packers right now? I say no. Aaron Rodgers has been playing some of his best football of the season, and the Eagles have been slumping lately. Philadelphia lost a relatively meaningless Week 17 game with Kevin Kolb at the helm, but they also lost to Minnesota in Week 16, and aside from a brilliant Vick-powered 4th quarter against the Giants, they were outplayed for the first 3 quarters in Week 15. So that means they've lost 11 of the last 12 quarters they've played. To make matters worse, Michael Vick is banged up and has to face one of the NFL's most elite defenses. I'm picking Green Bay to win this game on the road." Packers

Ari says: "God I hope so..." Packers

Ben says: "This is probably the hardest game to call as both teams have shown to be fairly inconsistent down the stretch. I think the key here is that the league has slowly figured out how to contain Vick and the Packers have the speed on defense to give the Eagles problems." Packers

My opinion: "I hate to go with the convention here, but I have the Pack taking this one. Both teams are beat up and this could be a shoot out if the defenses don't scheme correctly for two very different QBs, but I think that the Packers right now have a little momentum going their way. The Pack topped a lot of preseason picks for the Super Bowl and although Michael Vick has had an MVP-caliber season, I'll still take Rodgers over The Dog Killer. Stewart Bradley may be out for the Eagles and without him, Rodgers should continue to target his tight ends in the end zone. Plus, I could see Andy Reid screwing up the new overtime rules--and there's no way he knows about the advantages of the onside kick. Packers

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (Saints favored by 10.5)

Ben says: "The Seahawks really have no business being in the playoffs and the Saints have the experience and the talent to pull this game out in their sleep." Saints

Jay says: "Although Pete Carroll hasn't announced who will start at QB for the Seahawks, my guess is that it will be Matt Hasselbeck, who probably gives the team a better chance of winning (Charlie Whitehurst only managed 16 points of offense in a win-or-go-home game in Seattle last Sunday against St. Louis). The Seahawks, despite their "12th man" advantage at Qwest, are going to need more than 16 points to take down the defending champs. Drew Brees & Co. might not repeat, but they're getting out of the first round, despite having to travel across the country to play the 7-9 (haha) NFC West champs." Saints

Ari says: "Because, well, yeah" Saints

My opinion: The Seahawks home crowd is supposed to be a 12th man but they may need to be a 13th or 14th man if the 'Hawks will even come close to competing. The Saints had one win against a playoff team (the Bears). The Seahawks and Saints played once already this year (in New Orleans) and the game wasn't even close as the Saints won 34-19. Although Matt Hasselbeck put up 366 yards in that game, I can't see him having the same success this weekend (if he even plays). I do see this falling within the 10.5 points, however, but the Saints look good to win. Black and Gold to the Divisional Round. Saints

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (Ravens by 3)

Ari says: "The skinny delivers" Ravens

Ben says: "On paper the Ravens should win this game, but this game will be played in Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs run the ball, play scrappy defense and throw TD to Dwayne Bowe. The Ravens defense is old and overrated and their offense lacks an identity." Chiefs

Jay says: "Here's the wild card of the wild card round. I'm really not sure what to make of this game. I know that fans in Kansas City will be going crazy, as the Chiefs haven't won a playoff game since 1993. I know that Matt Cassell is underrated and Jamaal Charles is way underrated. I know that Joe Flacco sucks in the playoffs (5 games, 47.5% completion, 1 TD, 7 INT) and cannot be trusted, especially on the road. But I also know that the Chiefs were humbled at home, 31-10, by the Raiders in Week 17. Looking at their record, here are their 10 wins: San Diego, Cleveland, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Arizona, Seattle, Denver, St. Louis, and Tennessee. Only one of those teams had a winning record (Chargers were 9-7) and combined, all ten teams went 61-99 for a winning percentage of just 38.1%. So as much as I'd like to drink the Chiefs' kool aid right now, I'm just not impressed. I think Joe Flacco will turn it around and the Ravens will pull out a close game on the road." Ravens

My opinion: Like the Colts, I think the Ravens have been overvalued based on their past play. I'm not saying the Ravens aren't good (they are) but the defense that carried their team to the Super Bowl win a decade ago is not the same defense as they have today (although Ray Lewis is still there). I really don't think there's a good a sleeper team out there as the Chiefs who run the ball well, have a solid QB, play really tough defense and have playmakers on special teams. So what if they lost a meaningless Week 17 game to the Raiders? I think Arrowhead may be the one place that helps a home team secure a victory in this year's Wild Card round. Chiefs

So what are your thoughts on the matter? Who do you think is going to win this weekend? Is it weird that picked every team with a two-word city to win? Can you dig what Jay was saying and go with all 4 road teams? Let us know in the comments below.

***Update***
Ben W here!  I was on vacation but thought I'd share my picks before the first game today.


New Orleans over Seattle - The Seahawks are a gritty team, but they finished under .500
and some are treating it as if it is a big accomplishment.  The Saints are the defending champs - they get the win.


New York over Indianapolis - This is probably one of the weakest Colts team of the Peyton Manning era.  This game could go either way.  The quarterbacks will decide the outcome.  I think the Jets take this one.


Baltimore at Kansas City - The Chiefs are not as good as they seem. Joe Flacco keeps on getting
better.  The Ravens have some injuries but I think they will overcome them and win this one.


Green Bay at Philadelphia - This is the game to watch.  The Packers were a Super Bowl favorite coming into the season and Philadelphia is now considered one of the elite teams in the league.  The Packers are hot right now.  The Packers wins it in a close one.