Honestly, who could blame them? Baseball history is rife with players whose power numbers dropped off dramatically after trying their best to purposely crush homer after homer in this exhibition contest. Two of the best known examples of this phenomenon are players we know quite well. Bobby Abreu launched a record-setting 41 home runs in 2005. Before the Derby he had hit 18 HRs. Afterwards, he hit only 6 homers the rest of the way. In 2006, David Wright hit 20 homers before launching 22 in the Derby. Then, like Abreu, he hit only 6 more in the second half. (Photo Credit: NY Daily News)
Sure, there are players who kept their swing intact after the Derby. Ryan Howard won the 2006 Derby with 23 dingers, but still managed to revert back to his old plate approach once the regular season resumed. In fact, Howard hit more homers in the second half (30) than he did in the first half (28). But there is a real risk that Cano might not be so fortunate. His own teammate, A-Rod, participated in 3 Derbys (1998, 2001, 2002) and says he has declined invitations since then, believing that his participation took a toll. "The effect in the second half might be more mechanics and potentially developing bad habits," A-Rod stated.
I just don't see what Cano has to win. A trophy and some national attention? Come on. The guy is already an All-Star, he's 4th in the AL with a .337 BA, 5th in the AL with a .948 OPS, and 2nd in the AL with 110 hits. People know he's a stud having a career year. So clearly, he has a lot to lose. His average has already dropped from .371 to .342 in his last 15 games. Does he really want to take the (real, tangible) risk of declining further?
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I agree with you, Jay. And here's my sentiment about the All-Star game and the Home Run Derby:
ReplyDeleteI want Yankees to be named to it, but I don't want them to participate.
I know that sounds weird, but I think that it's bad news for players to play. It's just another game and another chance they'll get hurt. The HR Derby isn't the only time either. I remember Brad Penny starting the All-Star Game a few years back and being so jacked up that he ended up injuring his arm.
I'm OK that Mariano Rivera is pulling out of the game (though not so happy with the reason why). It's 3 days of rest and for a group of veterans like the Yankees, that's probably a good thing to have.
Also...the problem really is for Cano is that he's not a home run hitter, persay. So trying to alter his swing can really mess him up. I remember Alfonso Soriano trying to get another home run in 2002 to get to 40-40 and he messed up his swing so much that he was useless in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteLet Adrian Beltre and the rest of the Red Sox participate...
I guess all we can hope for is that he sucks during the Derby lol...
ReplyDeleteI mean if he were a pure power hitter I wouldn't mind (Jason Giambi won the contest in 2002 and went to the finals in 2003).
Well said, Andrew.
ReplyDeleteI just had an interesting thought. The Derby is at Angels Stadium, and you know who loves hitting homers at Angels Stadium? A-Rod.
In fact, A-Rod has hit more homers there than at any other stadium (except for his home ballparks in Seattle, Texas and NY). And it's not even close. He has hit 37 HRs in LA and 32 in the second-place city, Toronto. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=rodrial01&year=Career&t=b#site::10)
That said, I would never want him to play in the Derby. I mean, can you think of a player who would become more mentally unhinged from participating in the Derby than A-Rod? It would really, really screw him up at this point in his career. But boy, it would be fun to watch him hit in LA this year.
With A-Rod's hip, you don't want him even showing up for the Home Run Derby. The man needs to rest
ReplyDeleteAlso, with that thought in mind, you wonder if the Yankee trainers have asked Girardi to tell Arod to withdraw from the All Star Game to rest his hip. He made the team (through Girardi's selection), so there's no shame in taking a few days off. Plus, if Arod were to do it quickly enough (as in right now), Girardi could replace him with Youkilis (since Arod was a manager's pick) and thus give Swisher the final vote victory.
ReplyDeleteThen again, I was just thinking. If Youkilis wins the final vote and Arod withdraws, I can assure you that Nick Swisher will be named as the replacement.
ReplyDeleteAnd here we go:
ReplyDeleteNY Daily News is reporting that Robinson Cano will not partake in the HR Derby on Monday