Thursday, July 23, 2009

Justin Duchscherer Makes All The Sense in the World for the Yankees

I was scouring through the MLB trade rumor mill at work today, with the deadline just over a week away and I saw an interesting rumor there:
ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reports that Justin Duchscherer will make a rehabilitation appearance on Sunday, as he works his way back from elbow surgery, and the Yankees and Brewers are the two teams expected to be in attendance to watch the right-hander pitch. Duchscherer has not thrown an inning in the big leagues this year, but in 2008, he posted a 2.54 ERA and made the AL All-Star team.
"Duke" as he is known (and which I will use from now on for total lack of ability to spell his last name) has gone through a few different lives in baseball. He was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the 8th round of the 1996 draft and traded to Texas in 2001 for Doug Mirabelli (which means that the Red Sox traded--in two separate deals to get Mirabelli--Duke, Josh Bard, Cla Meredith and cash). After pitching poorly in 2001 for the Rangers, Duke was traded in 2002 to the Athletics for Luis Vizcaino.
In 2003 he was back up in the majors and from 2003-2006 (via B-R) he was 17-12 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.118 WHIP in 254 innings. He gave up under a hit an inning and struck out about 7.4 per 9 innings pitched. He kept his walks low, though with 3.33 SO/BB and kept the ball in the park with under 1 HR/9. Per 162 games, he averages 67 games, 97 innings, 84 hits, 24 BB, and 80 Ks. 
He had an off year in 2007 and bounced back last year with an All Star season as a starter. In 22 starts last year, Duke was 10-8 but had a 2.54 ERA and a 0.995 WHIP.
My feeling? He could be a nice, cheap late-season pick-up. You could bring him on as a last reliever on the team, see what he has left, and if he's up for starting, he could be a nice swingman to have in the bullpen. Although Aceves could serve in this role, he seems to be a big enough part of Girardi's bullpen that they were unwilling to move him to the rotation for more than one start, summoning journeyman, Sergio Mitre, from the minors. Duke wouldn't be a solution to any one problem, just insurance. And with the amount they use a guy like Melancon (or even Bruney at this point), it may be worth a shot. 
Buster Olney's take: "If you're looking for bullpen help, you could take a shot at Duchscherer, who has every reason to want to take the ball for the final six weeks of the season. He is making $3.9 million this year, so it would cost a team about $1.3 million to take him on for the final two months."
Baseball Prospectus' take: "Although Duchscherer certainly put together a stellar 2008 campaign, his 2009 merits are comparable to those of Pedro Martinez, in the "don't count on me, but I could be a bonus" vein. A pitching-starved team like the Brewers needs a legitimate rotational upgrade, not someone who might be able to make five starts over the final two months with an equal chance of being relegated to bullpen duty, if he can return, regardless of his relatively cheap salary. Duchsherer makes sense if he is acquired after the move to solidify the pitching staff, not as the solidifying move itself."
 

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