The Halladay Trade Talk

I have no sources, no inside knowledge, and hear no whisperings. So I'll let the experts say where they think Roy Halladay is going:

• I believe FOX Sports Ken Rosenthal was the first to break the story. He lists the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and White Sox as the top possibilities with the Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Angels as iffy and the Brewers, Mets and Braves and not likely. Rosenthal says it needs to be a haul like when Bartolo Colon from the Indians to the Expos for Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee.
• Peter Abraham lists the Phillies, White Sox and Angels as favorites, the Yankees and Red Sox as "instigators", the Mets, Dodgers, and Cubs as outsiders, and the Giants as "The Dark Horse". I personally think the Giants need to worry about adding a few bats to that lineup before they even think about Halladay...even as nice a rotation as that would be. Abraham predicts the Phillies.
• Joel Sherman of the New York Post lists the Phillies as the front-runners but says not count out the Cardinals or Rangers as viable candidates. Sherman also says that Mets don't have the prospects and the Yankees have the prospects, but probably won't do it, either.
• Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman says that the Jays are really looking for a top shortstop prospect in return. He lists the Phillies, Angels and Giants as the top candidates and the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and Brewers in the category behind them, with the Cardinals, Mets, and Rangers as unlikely.
• Newsday's Ken Davidoff thinks that the Mets are highly unlikely and the Yankees a little more likely, but still only 40%. He lists the Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and Rangers as possible destinations. He also says that the package would have to top Mark Teixeira's haul. Davidoff also thinks that Halladay will stay with the Blue Jays, but lists the Phillies and Red Sox as top odds (10-1 and under), Yankees, Angels, Rangers, White Sox and Cubs at under 20-1 odds and the Dodgers, Mets as unlikely but possible. 
• Yahoo! Sports Gordon Edes says that trading Halladay made more sense a year ago and lists reasons why the Red Sox, Braves, Phillies, Marlins, and Dodgers may all not jump into the fray.
• The Philadelphia Inquirer and the News Journal both write that the Phillies need to take a shot at him
• FanHouse says the Phillies are the favorites and says it needs to be a Dan Haren/Erik Bedard-type haul.
• Big League Stew says that Toronto General Manager J.P. Riccardi can't get duped like he did in the Adam Dunn fiasco.
• The LA Times says that while the Angels would love Halladay, they probably can't afford to pay Toronto's price.
• Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News thinks that Roy Halladay to the Yankees is a pipedream.
• The Globe and Mail has a "Halladay Trade Primer"
• Steven Goldman of YES' Pinstriped Bible thinks that the Blue Jays would have no problem trading Halladay within the division considering they did the exact same thing with David Cone in 1995 (and Roger Clemens in 1999).
• FanGraphs runs through Roy Halladay's real value (teams should be expected to surrender about $40 million in value) and Rob Neyer comments on it.

So where do I list the odds?

1. Phillies - They have the prospects and the financial windfall coming off a World Series win. They'd be one of the World Series favorites again if they could pull this off. And this would separate them from the rest of the pack in that division with each team having holes. The Phillies biggest hole right now is in starting pitching so this would make a world of sense. The two questions that remain: will they give up Kyle Drabek and will they expand payroll past $130 million?  
2. Blue Jays - Remember when Jake Peavy was going to be traded? That pesky no-trade clause came into play there. It could here as well. Riccardi is not stupid or desperate. The team holds Halladay's rights for another year and can just as easily trade him in the offseason or next trade deadline as well. If they don't get a huge haul, they may hold on to him. One thing the Jays may want to due is insist that the team trading for him take on a bad contract. A team may not take Vernon Wells' albatross but may take Scott Rolen or Alex Rios off their hands. This is what happened when the Marlins traded Josh Beckett (though Lowell turned into more than a "bad contract").
3. White Sox - I don't care what their GM says, the White Sox are in this one. They had a package ready to send to the Padres for Jake Peavy, I would assume they would sweeten that a bit to get a better pitcher who may be more financial viable. The one problem is that attendance is down and they don't know if they can afford him.
4. Red Sox - If the Yankees even sniff this one, the Red Sox will counter. They have the prospects and starting pitching is probably their biggest issue this season (they have quantity, but have lacked quality) when you realize they don't have a spot right now to add a bat. The issues is that they've been reluctant to give up those prospects since the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hanley Ramirez et al deal and that Josh Beckett is due for a pay bump in 2010 with Halladay.
5. Angels - Why not? They were going to spend the money on CC Sabathia (or Mark Teixeira) in the offseason, they may lose John Lackey in the offseason and this would separate them from the pack in the AL West. The problem is that I don't know if they have the prospects to make this happen.
6. Cardinals - I like them as a dark horse. Halladay and Carpenter would be the best one-two duo in the majors (with apologies to Cain-Lincecum et al). Do they have the financial resources to pay him once he comes? Especially with an Albert Pujols payday due in a few years, that may be the biggest hurdle. But adding the best pitcher in baseball to the best hitter in baseball would make the Cards the favorites in the NL Central and maybe the whole NL.
7. Yankees - Never count the Yankees out of anything. Especially a pitcher like this. As a Yankees fan, I'd rather see him go to the National League than come to the Yankees, but the Yanks have the prospects and money to do this deal. If George Steinbrenner was still running the team, he'd be starting this afternoon. The biggest problems are that The Boss is no longer in charge and the Yankees already spent their money on Burnett and Sabathia. Also, would he waive his no-trade to go pitch half his games in their new ballpark?
8. Marlins - They tried to trade for Manny Ramirez last summer and traded for guys like Carlos Delgado and Ugeth Urbina in the past when they needed another piece. They're an intriguing dark horse here. They have the prospects to get it done and in a weak division, could take this to the top. But would Halladay play there? I don't know. I think they have a lot of other issues to resolve but Josh Johnson and Halladay would make a ridiculous righty combo.
9. Rangers - Negatives: John Hicks' financial situation and pitchers' reluctance to waive no-trade cause to go to that launching pad. Positives: They've needed pitching since Nolan Ryan retired and they have the prospects to get it done
10. Braves - They have the pitcher (Hanson) and the shortstop (Escobar) and the willingness to make deals like these (Teixeira). But will they do this, especially after getting three starters in the offseason? Probably not. They need hitting more, but their pitching staff would be pretty rough to face if they got Halladay.
11. Cubs - They were in on Peavy, why not here? I just don't know if they have the prospects or the will to get this one accomplished
12. Dodgers - They never add money during the season, though they did save some money when Manny got suspended. This would surely put them over the top in my opinion, though they may already be there. Would they subtract a Billingsly or Kershaw to do this? That may be the biggest question
13. Brewers - They have the prospects and can find the money but won't do this a second year in a row after getting Sabathia last July. Only difference is that Halladay is signed for another year. But I don't think they want to mortgage the future again. Though I'm pretty sure Ryan Braun is begging the GM to go do this.
14. Reds - I wouldn't count them out. But I wouldn't add them in quite yet either.
15. Mets - Nah. They could clear out their farm system for him, but I don't think they can or will. I don't even know if they should. But wouldn't Halladay and Santana look amazing atop a rotation in that home park for years to come?
16. Giants - No way. They need a bat. Their starting pitching is fine.
17. Tigers, Astros and Twins - Money is an issue

So that's my thoughts on the matter. Where do you think Halladay is going?