After the Joe Torre book and the A-Rod thing, let's get onto happier baseball topics. So last month I went through the AL East and dissected who will make the Hall of Fame. I put the guys into four groups. To refresh your memory: The first group is sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famers, guys who, if they retired tomorrow, would make the Hall of Fame. The second are probable Hall of Famers, guys who should make it as long as they continue along their path or guys who may not make it the first ballot, but will be in eventually. The third are guys that are just short of the Hall of Fame but could get in if they have some big years. The fourth are guys who are really young, but seem like they could be on the Hall of Fame path.
I think the one change I would make from the previous list was to put A-Rod in the second category now. Although I think that some people will never vote for him for the Hall of Fame now, I think that eventually his numbers and the time that will pass will allow him entry.
So on to the AL Central:
Detroit Tigers
No one
Category 2
Miguel Cabrera. The stats are quite amazing. This guy has exactly 175 home runs and 650 RBIs at age 25. His career OPS+ is 140. He had a horrible start to last year, couldn't find a position, was called a bust and hit 37 homers (league leading) and drove in 127 runs, while leading the league in total bases...not too shabby for a bad year. Baseball Reference does similar batters through age 25. There are some great names up there like Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Vlad Guerrero and Al Kaline. But there are two HUGE cautionary tales: Andruw Jones and Ruben Sierra. If Cabrera can stay in shape (which he was not at the beginning of last season) and continue to rake, he may put up some unbelievable numbers someday. The good news for him is that he's an actual great hitter as well as being a great slugger.
Category 3
None. But Gary Sheffield, if he was deemed clean, would have been here. If he hits 23 home runs this year, he'll pass guys like Ernie Banks and Ted Williams and be 18th on the all time list. Let's review, once again the top 25 home run hitters (we'll put a * next to any guy who played in the past 11 years...no real reason for the * but we'll use that): Barry Bonds*, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr.*, Sammy Sosa*, Frank Robinson, Mark McGwire*, Harmon Killebrew, Rafael Palmeiro*, Reggie Jackson, Alex Rodriguez*, Mike Schmidt, Jim Thome*, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, Manny Ramirez*, Willie McCovey, Frank Thomas*, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Mel Ott, Eddie Murray, Gary Sheffield*. So you're telling me we're going to keep 10 out of the top 25 home run hitters out of a museum, the Hall of Frame, because they played in this era? I'm not saying Sheffield should be in, or 500 home runs should be the barometer anymore (or that guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. who never were accused of anything would be held out)...but it's a little ridic.
Category 4
Justin Verlander. I really don't think he'll make it...but who knows. He regressed a lot last season and maybe some of his weaknesses began to shine through. How is this for you? He wins the Rookie of the Year in 2006 with an ERA_ that is 7th in the league. Then in 2007 he goes 18-6, comes in 5th in the Cy Young voting, throws a no hitter, and strikes out almost a batter per inning...except the same year he also allows almost a hit an inning and leads the league in wild pitches and hits batsmen. That leads him to 2008 where he led the league in losses. So needless to say, he may be going in the wrong direction. But if he can right the ship, with a good team and a good pitcher's park behind him, he could make an interesting case for himself down the road.
Chicago White Sox
Category 1 No one
Category 2
Jim Thome. This will be an interesting one. His stats are in the top 10 of every offensive category during the so-called steroids era...yet Jim Thome's name never showed up on a Mitchell Report or BALCO investigation or government investigation. Does that mean he was/is clean? Nope. Could his name be one of the 103 left on that list? Yup. If it isn't, does that make him a lock for the Hall? I don't think so. But if he has another 59 home runs (he hit 111 in the last three seasons), he'll get 600 home runs. The only guys on that list are Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey, Jr., Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. According to Grey and Black Ink, he's not there, but according to the other two monitors, he's in. I'll leave this one up to the voters to figure out.
Jim Thome. This will be an interesting one. His stats are in the top 10 of every offensive category during the so-called steroids era...yet Jim Thome's name never showed up on a Mitchell Report or BALCO investigation or government investigation. Does that mean he was/is clean? Nope. Could his name be one of the 103 left on that list? Yup. If it isn't, does that make him a lock for the Hall? I don't think so. But if he has another 59 home runs (he hit 111 in the last three seasons), he'll get 600 home runs. The only guys on that list are Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey, Jr., Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. According to Grey and Black Ink, he's not there, but according to the other two monitors, he's in. I'll leave this one up to the voters to figure out.
Category 3, Category 4
None that I can see.
Minnesota Twins
Category 1
No one
Category 2
Joe Mauer. I debated which category he fit into. But a catcher with two batting titles before he turns 26? I think that guy fits into Category 2. Fangraphs just loves this guy and all the predictions seem to indicate he'll be in the running for more batting titles as the years go on. In those two batting title years, Justin Morneau came in first and second in the MVP voting. That is not a coincidence. Fangraphs estimates that he's been worth over 200 value runs, almost 20 value wins, and over $77 million in just over 4 season in the bigs. Similar batters through Age 25 include guys like Bill Dickey, Tony Lazzeri, Derek Jeter and Rod Carew (though Robinson Cano's name is on the top of the list...so I hope they both follow the same Hall of Fame path). If he can keep this current progression, especially as a catcher, he should find himself in the Hall. And how can you deny a guy whose last name is one letter off from being Bauer?
Category 3
Justin Morneau. The guy has won an MVP and came in second in another voting. The overall stats aren't tremendous, but that has a lot to do with not having a lot around him besides Joe Mauer. He hit less home runs last season (although hit a lot more doubles), but still finished second in the MVP voting because he hit .300/.374/.499 and was in the top 3 in RBIs, Adjusted Batting Runs and Batting Wins. He needs to keep on mashing and hope to pick up a few more MVP awards if he hopes to represent Canada in the Hall of Fame.
Category 3
Justin Morneau. The guy has won an MVP and came in second in another voting. The overall stats aren't tremendous, but that has a lot to do with not having a lot around him besides Joe Mauer. He hit less home runs last season (although hit a lot more doubles), but still finished second in the MVP voting because he hit .300/.374/.499 and was in the top 3 in RBIs, Adjusted Batting Runs and Batting Wins. He needs to keep on mashing and hope to pick up a few more MVP awards if he hopes to represent Canada in the Hall of Fame.
Category 4
No one as of now...though guys like Liriano could find themselves back in this discussion.
Cleveland Indians
Category 1, Category 2, Category 3 No one
Category 4
Kansas City Royals
Category 1, Category 2, Category 3 No one. It's amazing in this whole division we've had zero category ones...
Category 4
Joakim Soria. He's young. And we don't know if he'll be a starter or closer. But he was a damn good Rule V draft pickup and he had 42 saves last year at the ripe old age of 24. The most similar pitcher through that same age (mad props to baseball-reference.com for an amazing site, once again) is Bruce Sutter and--like it or not--he's a Hall of Famer. Not saying Soria will be there. But he certainly is young and has a chance.Agree? Disagree? Did I miss someone? Let me know!
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