What About Melky?

I was told that I've been ignoring Melky Cabrera in my assessment of Centerfield for the Yankees. The truth is that I have been. And the truth is that there's good reason for that. But the truth is also that the Yankees will probably give him every chance to win the CF job from spring training. And I think that may be a big mistake.

I could be totally wrong on Melky. Although this will be the 5th year we'll see Melky in Pinstripes, he actually won't turn 25 until mid-August. He still has room to improve and get better.  The problem is that he hasn't been...he's actually been getting worse.

A look at his statistics show a bad trend. His line has gone from .280/.360/.391 to .273/.327/.391 to .249/.301/.341. He went from a slightly below average hitter to a well below average hitter. And his value as a player dropped so much that he was actually worth negative $200,000 last year (he'll make a ridiculous $1.4 million in 2009). And that includes his defense, which, besides a few highlight-reel plays, is actually below average. Pete Abraham dissects the "Great Melky Myth" and says that he's above average defensively, but that doesn't make up for his really poor hitting.

The hope for The Melk Man? A look at Johnny Damon. Damon started his career much in the same way that Melky did--albeit with much better speed. Then, at 24 he came back to league average and at 25-26 he started to break out. Damon's best season probably was in 2000 at the age of 26 when he posted a .327/.382/.495 line to go along with 136 runs (to lead the league), 214 hits (2nd in the league), 42 2Bs, 10 3Bs (3rd in the league), 16 HR and a league leading 46 SBs. One they keys to his success seems to be that he cut down on his Ks and increased his walks.

If Melky can do the same--and be much more selective at the pitches he DOES swing at since his batting average of balls in play (BABIP) has decreased every year as well (though increased greatly in his 2008 minor league stint)--then I'm willing to put him back into the mix. But he needs to come into camp in shape and willing to change his approach at the plate and he should look no further than Damon to see the results of doing so.