Thursday, March 11, 2010

Why Yankees and Sabathia Shouldn't Really Worry

ESPN Stats and Info posted today on their TMI Blog a thought-provoking piece titled "Why Yankees and Sabathia should worry." The article starts: "If two is a coincidence and three is a trend, what is five? Five could be a serious concern for CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees. The past five innings leaders for World Series-winning teams have struggled and/or missed time due to injury the following season." Let me answer "what is five?" Five is too small a sample size. Let's look back at eight more defending World Series winning teams and how their innings leaders from the season before performed:
2003 - Carl Pavano
Pavano threw 201 innings in 2003 to lead the Marlins in the regular season and another 19.1 during Florida's World Series run. In 2004, Pavano had his best season in the Major Leagues starting 31 games, going 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA in 222.1 innings and1.174 WHIP. He finished 6th in the Cy Young voting and earned a spot on the All-Star team. Of course, he would become a free agent that off-season and really make the Yankees miserable, but he was quite good the year after pitching all those innings. But Pavano was healthy and good in 2004 (ugh...just hurt me to say that).

2002 - Ramon Ortiz
Ortiz was far from the ace of the 2002 Angels, but he did lead them in innings with 217.1. He pitched only 13 innings in those playoffs, but not because he was hurt--but because he wasn't that good. Despite putting up a respectable ERA in 2002, he led the league in home runs given up with 40 (which is tied for the 12th worst mark in Major League Baseball history). He lowered the home run total in 2003, but the ERA jumped up. He won more games in 2002, but his ERA jumped up almost a run and a half the next year. But he was quite healthy in 2003 starting 32 games.

2001 - Curt Schilling
Schilling and Randy Johnson led the Diamondbacks to the World Series in 2001, but it was Schilling who led the Diamondbacks--and the Majors--in innings (256.2). Schilling also led the majors in wins (22), starts (35), complete games (6), and SO/BB (7.51). Schilling finished 2nd to his teammate Randy Johnson in the Cy Young voting, however. He pitched a ridiculous 48.1 innings on top of that in the playoffs. In 2002, Schilling won more games, lowered his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) 3.11 to 2.40 and led the Majors in BB/9 (1.1), led the National League in WHIP (0.968), and raised his major-league leading SO/BB ratio to a ridiculous 9.58. That 9.58 SO/BB is the second-highest in Major League history (for anyone who qualified for the ERA title) and the most ever in a non-strike year. Amazingly, Schilling lost the Cy Young again to The Big Unit. But he had another spectacular year after throwing over 300 innings the year before.

2000 - Andy Pettitte
In 2000, Pettitte led the Yankees in innings with 204.2 and threw 31.2 more in the playoffs to lead the Yankees to their fourth World Series title in 4 years. So what did he do in 2001? He lowered his ERA by almost a half a run, he allowed less baserunners, gave up less homers, walked less guys and struck out more. He lowered his FIP from 4.22 to 3.02. And he was an All-Star while reaching 200 innings once again. Amazingly, the Yankees were not worried about him coming into the 2001 season despite the fact that he will show up on this list quite a bit.

1999 - Orlando Hernandez
El Duque burst onto the scene in the middle of 1998, but 1999 was his first full year in the majors and he shined, going 17-9 and leading the Yankees with 214.1 regular season innings. He threw another 30 innings in the playoffs as the Yankees captured one of the easiest championships of the Dynasty Years. In 2000, El Duque struggled some with the record (12-13), but he lowered his WHIP, tied for the team league in complete games, and raised his SO/BB ratio. He would win two big games in that ALCS leading the Yankees into the Subway Series.

1998 - Andy Pettitte
Pettitte had another fine year in 1998 with the entire Yankee staff, throwing 216.1 innings in the regular season and following that up with a few big starts in the playoffs including a 7-inning shutout in the clinching game of the World Series against the Padres. In 1999 Pettitte was marginally worse but still managed to start 31 games, helping the Yankees to win that World Series as well. This is not the final team we'll see Pettitte on here, but again, the Yankees weren't all that worried about him.

1997 - Kevin Brown
Brown had a great year in 1997, going 16-8 with a 2.69 ERA while throwing a team-leading 237.1 innings. Next came 33 playoff innings and a World Series crown for Florida. Brown was traded to San Diego the next season and had an even better year in 1998 in almost every statistical category. Brown went 18-7 with a 2.38 ERA starting a league-high 35 games and giving up a Major League-low 0.3 HR/9. He was an All-Star, finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting and even garnered a few MVP votes as well. Oh, and then he went on to lead San Diego to the World Series as well. Not bad for a guy who should have been burnt out.

1996 - Andy Pettitte
I told you that you'd see his name up here quite a bit. Pettitte had one of his best campaigns in 1996, winning 21 games, finishing second in the Cy Young voting and throwing a team-high 221 innings. 37.1 innings of playoff pitching led the Yankees to their first World Series win in quite a long time. Pettitte's next year featured him throwing even more innings (240.1) and leading the Major Leagues in starts (35) and HR/9 (0.3). He lowered his FIP over a run (4.08 to 2.96). Pettitte finished 5th in the Cy Young voting that season. And is the third time on the list from a guy who wasn't even considered a "workhorse" by many people's standards.

So before we all go out and say that CC Sabathia's arm will fall off, let's take a little larger of a sample size and find out that he has just as good a chance as turning out perfectly fine.

Picture from the New York Daily News

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