Monday, July 27, 2009

The Yankees Will Miss Brett Gardner, Should Play A-Jax

Did you hear that Brett Gardner went on the disabled list? Probably not. In a year that has seen the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Brian Bruney and Chien-Ming Wang hit the DL, Gritty Gutsy Brett Gardner's name didn't hit the same chord as the others. But GGBG will be missed. Amazingly, Gardner broke his thumb but continued to play on Saturday, making two diving catches and hitting a triple. Although only a part-time player so far this season, Gardner has contributed to the Yankees in many ways.
According to FanGraphs, he's the 4th best centerfielder in baseball behind the Nats' Nyjer Morgan, the Cards' Colby Rasmus, and the A's Ryan Sweeney and has the fifth best arm behind Adam Jones, Kosuke Fukudome, Michael Bourn, and Matt Kemp.. Overall, he's good for a WAR (Win Over Replacement player) of 2.1, which is equal to the Braves' Nate McLouth, the A's Scott Hairston or the Giants' Aaron Rowand. McLouth and Hairston have been dealt so far this season for prospects, so their values are well defined. His .354 OBP is 4th among American League CF (according to Play Index), he's 3rd in steals (also via Play Index) and he's one behind the AL leader in triples for any position. In fact, he is aiming to become the first Yankees to have more than 10 triples since Willie Randolph did it exactly 30 years ago. He's been covering a lot of the ground that Nick Swisher and Johnny Damon have missed in the OF and is a threat to run either when he starts or off the bench late in games.
What does this mean for the Yankees? More ABs for Melky Cabrera and a call-up of someone from AAA. Once again, Melky started the season hot but has cooled significantly since then. April he was .327/.400/.571 with 4 HR, May he was .321/.348/.429 with 1 HR, June he was .225/.312/.375 with 2 HR and so far in July he's bounced back a bit with .288/.373/.407 with 1 HR (but only 8 runs scored and 5 XBH total, though with an un-Melky-like 8 BB to 4 SO). Although he's on pace to have his best offensive season yet, that isn't really saying all that much for a player that had an adjusted OPS of 84 (or 16% below average) coming into this season. He's been bouncing around from CF to the corners to the bench, but his value as of late has certainly been in the ability the Yankees have to put he and Gardner in 2 out of the 3 OF spots late in games. Melky has been a subpar defensive player so far this season according to FanGraphs but has hit better than his last two seasons leading to a WAR of 0.9. He won't hurt the Yankees out there as long as he doesn't play to his June splits, but he's also not a big help out there, either.
Who could help at AAA? Peter Abraham suggests that the choices are probably either Austin Jackson, Shelley Duncan or John Rodriguez, with Ramiro Pena as a long shot. Tyler Kepner, after pointing out the Yankees cannot use Hideki Matsui in the field, relays Girardi's sentiments that Austin Jackson is a long shot as well because they want him to be playing every day. River Avenue Blues thinks Jackson is not the answer right now.
My feelings? Go with Austin Jackson and play him every day in center. The Yankees #2 prospect, A-Jax has burned it up at every level so far, hitting AAA pitching this year with a .311/.375/.429 line and 17 steals in 19 attempts. His line is sure to take a dip in the Major Leagues, especially playing in the ultra-competitive AL East, but his speed and plus defense in center could make him more valuable. Plus, this would allow the Yankees to showcase Jackson either for a trade or for the team to consider using as an every day player next season. The Yankees need to see what they have here and putting him up against the top competition in the middle of the pennant race is a sure-fire way to do so. I do not advocate bringing him up to be an extra OF. But if the Yanks are willing to commit to playing him everyday--knowing that they have plus offensive players at every other position, but could use some help defensively in the OF and with speed--then I think he could thrive in the Bronx. He has struck out a lot so far this season and is mired in a bit of slump, but for someone who has blown through the minors maybe all he needs to jump start his season will be a promotion to the Majors. As River Avenue Blues pointed out "he Yankees did promote Jackson back in 2007 while he was hitting just .260/.336/.374 in Charleston, and he responded by tearing the Florida State League to shreds in the second half, hitting .345/.398/.556 over the final 67 games."
If that doesn't work out? Call up Shelley Duncan who has been a monster hitter all season and allow him to be a righty platoon for Hinske, Matsui and Damon. Pena has had too little time in the OF and needs to be playing every day and Rodriguez is probably nothing more than a 5th or 6th OF at this point. But I say give the kid a shot and let's see what A-Jax can do.

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