Monday, July 20, 2009

Reviewing ESPN's 30 Over 30

When I clicked on ESPN.com on my Blackberry this morning, I saw an advertisement for ESPN's 30 Over 30. They are asking ESPN Mobile users to vote for the best 30 players in the 30 years of ESPN:
The Worldwide Leader In Sports is turning 30 and ESPN Mobile wants you to help us celebrate. This summer, we are asking you, the fans, to vote on and create the '30 Over 30' Legacy Baseball Team. Each week, we will unveil a new position and you can select your favorite by voting at m.espn.go.com as well as by texting '30' to 43776.
Each week will reward one voter with an ESPN prize package so remember to check back every day to cast your vote and see the results.
Sounds cool. So I checked out the nominees for the first two categories, catcher and DH. I wanted to break down the nominees for both categories and say who I would vote for for those two positions.
  • Johnny Bench - .266/.377/.448, 1914 PA, 215 runs, 455 hits, 151 XBH, 79 HR, 265 RBI, 186 BB, 254 SO, 115 OPS+
  • Gary Carter - .262/.333/.441, 6851 PA, 769 runs, 1593 hits, 561 XBH, 249 HR, 957 RBI, 625 BB, 696 SO, 116 OPS+
  • Carlton Fisk - .261/.329/.441, 6370 PA, 771 runs, 1484 hits, 523 XBH, 242 HR, 866 RBI, 506 BB, 898 SO, 109 OPS+
  • Mike Piazza - .308/.377/.545, 7745 PA, 1048 runs, 2127 hits, 779 XBH, 427 HR, 1335 RBI, 759 BB, 1113 SO, 142 OPS+
  • Ivan Rodriguez - .300/.337/.474, 9534 PA, 1281 runs, 2670 hits, 889 XBH, 303 HR, 1249 RBI, 480 BB, 1344 SO, 109 OPS+
This one is interesting. Johnny Bench was a phenomenal player, one of the best--if not THE best catcher--in many people's opinion both offensively and defensively. But this was in the last 30 years and Bench was towards the end of his great career. He would make 3 All-Star games from 1979-1983, but didn't play enough from '79 on at a high enough level to compete with the rest of the list.
Carter only loses about 5 years with the time requirement, and from 1979-1992 was a deserving member of this club. Still, Carter's OPS was lower than Mike Lieberthal, Darren Daulton or Mickey Tettleton and his HR and RBI total both fell short of Lance Parrish.
Fisk has amazingly similar numbers to Carter's over this span. Amazingly, Fisk turned 31 in 1979 while Carter turned 25. So Fisk certainly got jipped by the ESPN era requirement 
Piazza benefitted from playing his entire career in the Age of ESPN, but I don't think there's much argument that he is one of the best offensive catchers ever, if not the best. Piazza had the best slugging percentage and OPS of any catcher ever at .545 and .922 (minimum 3000 PAs). The next closest is Roy Campanella at .500 and Mickey Cochrane at .897. 
Rodriguez also played his whole career in the ESPN era, but also did so under a cloud of steroids. Still, he was a much better defensive player than Piazza and like Fisk, had a little bit of speed as well (124 SB). Does the difference in defense with Piazza make up for the difference in offense? I don't think so
Missing from this list? Jorge Posada (.858 OPS is second highest to Piazza, averaged 24 HR and 97 RBI per 162 games. Still playing too so may be one player to miss out on the back end of the 30 years) and Javy Lopez (PED-enhanced? Maybe. But .828 OPS and 260 HRs are very, very impressive)
Special mention: Lance Parrish (only Yogi Berra, Fisk, Bench and Piazza have more HRs for a catcher and only Piazza hit more HRs in ESPN era) and Mickey Tettleton (.818 OPS, 245 HRs and, 2nd most walks ever for a catcher and most walks in past 30 years).
My winner and runners up: My winner is Mike Piazza with Posada, Rodriguez, Carter and Fisk as the runners up.
 
Designated Hitter
  • Edgar Martinez - .312/.418/.515, 8672 PA, 1219 runs, 2247 hits, 838 XBH, 309 HR, 1261 RBI, 1283 BB, 1202 SO, 147 OPS+
  • Eddie Murray - .287/.361/.476, 11461 PA, 1461 runs, 2908 hits, 979 XBH, 450 HR, 1734 RBI, 1215 BB, 1315 SO, 128 OPS+
  • David Ortiz - .283/.378/.546, 5781 PA, 850 runs, 1397 hits, 680 XBH, 301 HR, 1019 RBI, 761 BB, 1053 SO, 135 OPS+
  • Frank Thomas - .301/.419/.555, 10074 PA, 1494 runs, 2468 hits, 1028 XBH, 521 HR, 1704 RBI, 1667 BB, 1397 SO, 156 OPS+
  • Jim Thome - .278/.406/.559, 9317 PA, 1472 runs, 2109 hits, 989 XBH, 557 HR, 1545 RBI, 1607 BB, 2263 SO, 148 OPS+
The designated hitter came to the major leagues in 1973 so there is less historical stats for this position, but all but 6 years were in the ESPN era. Edgar Martinez is probably the most famous as a DH. He'll be an interesting Hall of Fame candidate but I think will fall way short playing in a greatly offensive era. He was a Yankee killer so I'll have a special place in my hear for him and his 147 OPS+ was tremendous, but the rest of the numbers fall a bit short in my opinion. He gets hurt because of lack of longevity, though his peak was quite high
Eddie Murray was not a DH. He played less than 19% of his games there. George Brett, Jason Giambi, Jose Canseco, Danny Tarabull, Mike Sweeney, Cecil Fielder and Paul Molitor all played as a DH more over this span and had a better OPS than Murray. His stats are minus his first two years, the first one in which he won the Rookie of the Year.
David Ortiz from 2003-2007 finished in the Top 5 of the MVP voting every year and averaged 46 HR and 141 RBIs per 162 games. Big Papi misses out with a tough go of it until 2002, but he has made up for it since. Especially against the Yankees. Plus, unlike Thomas, Thome, or Martinez, he actually carried his team to a World Series win.
Frank Thomas is one of the greatest hitters ever and I think is greatly underrated. The guy averaged 36 HR and 119 RBI per 162 games over his career. From 1991-2007, he averaged .330/.453/.604 with 40 HR, 131 RBI, 133 BB to 84 SO over 162 games while finishing in the top 8 of the MVP voting every year, winning twice and getting 3rd twice. He has the 15th highest OPS of any player in baseball history. He's also 4th in career sac flies--a sure sign that this guy did whatever it took to help a team win.
Jim Thome was also not really a DH. Part of that had to do with playing a few years in the NL without a DH. He played less than 27% of his games at DH, most of it recently. But out of the players in the ESPN span who had at least 25% of their games at DH, Thome had the most HR and the second-highest OPS to Thomas. 
Missing from this list? Paul Molitor (played over 45% of his games at DH and made the Hall of Fame with a .824 OPS, 474 SB, 917 XBH and 3177 hits over the ESPN reign) and Jose Canseco (played almost 45% of his games at DH and amassed a higher OPS than Paul Molitor, more HRs than Martinez or Ortiz...albeit while Juiced. Averaged 40 HR and 121 RBI per 162 games)
Special Mention: Harold Baines (.821 OPS, 2866 hits, and 384 HR)
My winner and runners up: My winner is Frank Thomas with Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz and Jim Thome as the runners up.
 
We'll see how the voting goes from those two positions. Will continue this review of ESPN's 30 over 30 as the voting continues.
 

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