Reviewing the NFC Playoff Picture

Earlier we reviewed the AFC Playoff Picture. Let's take a look now at what's going on in the NFC.

NFC:

1. New Orleans Saints. 13-0

The Saints have already clinched the division and a first-round bye. They can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win vs. Dallas and a Minnesota loss vs. Carolina. With games left against Tampa Bay and Carolina, it may just be a formality at this point for the home-field advantage, the real question is whether this team can go 16-0. If they beat Dallas this weekend, it looks like smooth sailing the rest of the way.

2. Minnesota Vikings. 11-2

Amazingly, all Minnesota has clinched so far is a playoff birth. The Vikings can clinch the division this week with a win or a Green Bay loss and they can clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Philly loss. Playing Carolina this week, they should at least wrap up the division and the Giants are hoping they can wrap up the bye before their Week 17 game.

3. Philadelphia Eagles. 9-4

The Eagles had a chance to lose a bad game to the Giants and have a chance of falling out of the playoff race. Now they're driving the playoff race and trying to wrap up the #4 seed. The Eagles can clinch a playoff spot with a win and either a Giants loss or a Dallas win. Yes, the Eagles, if they win, will be rooting for their enemies, the Dallas Cowboys, to do the same. Strange times. The Eagles play hot San Francisco and Denver at home before going to Dallas for Week 17. The Eagles will have to continue to play strong to win the division. 75% of NYaT voters thought that the Eagles would make the playoffs and that % should go up this week?

4. Arizona Cardinals. 8-5 / San Francisco 49ers. 6-7
I know it's weird to put them together but San Fran's only way into the playoffs is through the last divisional spot. The Cards lost a chance to clinch the division and lost Larry Fitzgerald last night against the 49ers. But I don't think they have much of a chance of losing the division. Arizona needs a win against lowly Detroit this next week and for San Francisco to lose to the Eagles in Philly to clinch the division. Even if somehow they don't do it this week, the Cards play St. Louis in Week 16...but the 49ers also get the Rams and Lions after Philly. So if San Fran can get through Philly, they should be 9-7 which means that Arizona needs to find a way to win a few games here. 75% of people voting in the poll thought the Cards would make it but 0% thought the 49ers would. I wonder if that % goes up this week?

5. Green Bay Packers. 9-4.

If this team didn't lose to lowly Tampa Bay, they'd be competing for the division. The Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win vs. Pittsburgh and either a Dallas loss or a Giants loss. Their situation may be even more complicated than that. From CBS Sports' "Tiebreaker Expert" Joe Ferreira (see if you can keep up with this): "The GB situation is interesting.  Since GB beat DAL H2H and there is no other team that DAL can use from another division in a three-team tiebreaker, DAL would need to win the East division title to keep GB out.  If DAL loses this week to NO, the potential three-team tie for the division title among PHIL, DAL and NYG could stretch out to strength of victory if PHI win is against DEN.  However, it appears there is no way in that scenario that DAL could finish ahead of NYG, meaning DAL would have no chance to win the division, which means they could not clinch a playoff spot ahead of GB." With games against Pittsburgh, Seattle and Arizona, Green Bay has a chance of having a very good season and should give fits to whoever gets the #4 seed. Only 62% of you thought they'd make the playoffs in our last poll, but that number should be much higher this week.

6. Dallas Cowboys. 8-5.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say I think the Giants are going to make the playoffs over Dallas. Why? Dallas schedule the rest of the way is brutal and they may not have DeMarcus Ware for a little while which would put even more strain on a bad secondary. Dallas has games left at New Orleans, at Washington and then against Philly. Ouch. Dallas is only 3-3 on the road this season as well. This could be a 9-7 team. 87% of voters thought the 'Boys would make the playoffs but I don't know if anyone is as confident anymore.

7. New York Giants. 7-6.

This team doesn't deserve to make the playoffs. Their defensive coordinator should be fired. Their star defensive player (Osi Umenyora) looks like a shell of his former self and is just getting manhandled on the field. Their wide receivers can hold on to the ball. Their special teams coverage stinks. And their two kickers should be cut. Yet this team has a clear shot at the playoffs. The Giants remaining games are at Washington (who they beat in Week 1), at home vs. Carolina (who they should beat at 5-8), and end on the road at Minnesota (who should have everything locked up by then and be resting starters). If they win 3 games, they're not guaranteed a playoff spot, but Dallas would have to win out and Philly would have to win their first two and then lose against Dallas. The Giants controlled their own destiny and now need help. Their schedule may be the greatest help. And this is a Giants team that won the Super Bowl two years ago as a #6 seed that looked like it had a lot of holes coming into the playoffs and everyone expected would get bounced early.

8. Atlanta Falcons. 6-7.

I don't see a scenario where they get in, but it is mathematically possible and with games against the Jets, Buffalo and Tampa, it's likely they'll get to 9-7. But I don't know if 9-7 gets you in, especially not ahead of the Giants or Cowboys who hold the tiebreaker against the Falcons. And I don't know if they get to 9-7 if Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are still injured. Sorry Atlanta. Their 12% confidence should go down a lot this week.

What do you think? Who will join the Saints and the Vikings in the playoffs.

Reviewing the AFC Playoff Picture

I'm still trying to get over the Giants disappointing loss to the Eagles where a Michael Boley missed TAINT still haunts my dreams. But let's take a look at the playoff picture heading into Week 15 for the AFC and we'll do the NFC right after.

AFC:

1. Indianapolis Colts. 13-0

The Colts have homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs wrapped up and the only thing left to accomplish in the regular season is winning 3 more games. With Jacksonville, the Jets and Buffalo on the schedule, they should be able to do that.

2. San Diego Chargers. 10-3

It's pretty simple for San Diego. They win in Week 15, they're in and clinch the AFC West. If they win and Denver and New England loses, they get a first round bye. There's a lot of other scenarios to get in for the Bolts, but a win against Cincy at home would make it much easier. They should be the division winners at the very least. 83% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and it seems like it's just a formality at this point.

3. Cincinnati Bengals. 9-4

Another team that has it simple: win and they're the division winners. A Ravens loss (unlikely vs. the Bears) would get them the same thing. This team plays Kansas City next week so the clinch may have to wait a week. 91% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and it would take an epic collapse for them not to.

4. New England Patriots. 8-5

They can't beat a good team which may be a good thing for the Pats since they have mediocre Buffalo, Jacksonville and Houston still left on the schedule. The bad thing? Only one home game since the Pats are 7-0 at home and an abysmal 1-5 on the road (and their one "road" win was in London against Tampa Bay). This team seems like it will make the playoffs, but if it doesn't win the division, they're not winning a game since this team is bad against good teams and bad on the road. 91% of you felt they'd make the playoffs, but even after a win, their chances aren't as good as they should be.

5. Denver Broncos. 8-5

They've made life easy for themselves by getting to 8 wins, with Oakland and KC left on their schedule, they should have 10 which will be enough for a playoff spot in the AFC, though their 6-4 record in the AFC will hurt them if other teams run the table and hit the 10 win mark. 75% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and they've put themselves in good position to do so.

6. Jacksonville Jaguars. 7-6

The true colors for this team are shining through. The Jaguars have won four games by three points or less. The combined record of those four teams is 14-34. Not good. Jacksonville has Indy at home and then goes on the road to New England and Cleveland. This team is probably 8-8 at this point unless they can pull some upset wins. Only 16% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and you look correct at this point.

7. Baltimore Ravens. 7-6

Baltimore has risen from the dead and are in a great position to make the playoffs. They play Chicago at home and then go on the road to struggling Pittsburgh and Oakland. If Baltimore does not make the playoffs at this point, it would be a huge disappointment. They should run the table and end up with 10 wins, but at the least, have 9 wins and have a good shot at that last playoff spot due to a good conference record. 41% of NYaT readers voted them as a playoff team and that looks like a greater possibility now.

8. Miami Dolphins. 7-6

Miami has a good chance to sneak into the playoffs again. They go to Tennessee and then close with Houston and Pittsburgh at home. They need Ricky Williams to hold on to the ball and carry this team on his back. Can he do it? Debatable. But if he can, this team has a chance of maybe sneaking away with the division as well. 16% thought they'd make the playoffs and I think that % may increase slightly in the new poll

9. New York Jets. 7-6

The Jets keep on hanging around. If Mark Sanchez can get healthy and stay away from mistakes, they have a chance...but does anyone really see that happening? The Jets play Atlanta, at Indy and Cincy in the last game at the Meadowlands. If they can beat Atlanta this week, they might get favorable situations in their last two games against teams resting starters. I don't think Indy will let up, though. The Jets have hurt themselves going 0-2 against Miami and that may bite them come tiebreaker time. Only 8% of you thought they'd make the playoffs and the Jets just keep on hanging around and defying odds.

10. 11. 12. Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Houston.
I'll just group them together since none of them should make the playoffs. Pittsburgh has just collapsed and have lost too many games to bad teams this season. Tennessee has too little, too late after a dreadful start but has something to build on for next season. And Houston always seems to play best when it counts least...so it's no surprise they're playing well now.

New poll is up on the right, I'm assuming the Colts, Bolts and Bengals are in so tell me who will be joining them.

End of the Week Article Roundup (and new poll)

Links here! Get your links here! Check out these nice hot links (while we ponder how much one should bid for Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman on the right).

• Joe Posnanski gives him 2010 Hall of Fame thoughts for his blog and then for Sports Illustrated. I have to say that I'm underwhelmed by all the candidates. I just can't see how Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, or Fred McGriff are Hall of Famers (nor do I see Tim Raines as one as Rob Neyer does). I could see Roberto Alomar on that list because he truly was one of the greatest 2nd basemen in history (which, yes, is different than being one of the best DHs in history). If I had a vote, I may just vote for Alomar (and maybe Mark McGwire) or no one at all. Then again, since Jim Rice is in the Hall now, I think the standards have been lowered quite a bit. The Seattle Times goes through the Veteran's Committee candidates and they are pretty slim picking also. Hall of Fame voters, you don't have to elect someone just because someone hands you a ballot. As Jon Heyman's list shows, there will be plenty of Yankees to elect in the future.
  

• Chad Jennings has some great stuff over on the LoHud blog on the Yankees Rule 5 draft prospects: the first part here, second part here, and final thoughts here. River Avenue Blues also gives their thoughts. My feelings? Some fans get way to into it since it very, very rarely produces a guy like Johan Santana. I think it's a good way to fill out a team cheaply, but I'm not sure you're going to find a franchise player there very often. If you want more information about the Yankees prospects, Fangraphs does a quick minor league review.
  

• What teams should be more concerned about is Type A and B free agents. As Buster Olney points out, that affects a lot of the things that teams will do in regards to offering arbitration and signing certain players. Think that is insignificant? Look back at the players that the Red Sox got for the Mets signing Pedro Martinez or the Yankees got for the Phillies signing Tom Gordon because of the extra draft picks and tell me that's not significant. 

• Joel Sherman says that the Yankees are plotting to keep Damon, Matsui and Pettitte (echoed by Jon Heyman). I think this is a mistake; although it's a formula that works, you need to go out there and get younger and continue to get better to compete with the Rays, Red Sox and the rest of the American League. One reason, as Ken Rosenthal points out, that the Yankees won the World Series is that they got smart. No reason to get dumb now. That includes not trading for Derek Lowe or singing Johnny Damon for 3 or 4 more years as Jon Heyman mentions both. How about one more World Series wrap or some more information on John Wetteland's persona?
  

• Joe Cada got extremely lucky on his way to become the youngest-ever World Series of Poker main event winner (pocket 3s and 2s against much better hands is luck). His luck netted him $8.5 million, but The Detroit News writes that just the beginning of the party and the perks and the money. It's amazing to see how much will be thrown Cada's way. Nice life.

• ESPN must love the World Series of Poker, but as Street & Smith's Sports Business Journal writes, not many are making a challenge to the love that ESPN is getting on all their sports. The Sports Business Journal does go deeper into the league-owned networks and lists them among the possible competition for ESPN--though also listing FX and Versus sort of makes me think that ESPN can rest easy.

• Lastly: SportsbyBrooks has an incredible story of a 22-year-old who tried to relive his high school glory days by going back to high school and posing as a younger person. FanGraphs has a fun game to play in the offseason with a friend or two (H/T Rob Neyer). USA Today says LeBron may change numbers. A back-to-the-future look at Mike Tyson from Sports Illustrated. A funny take on that female soccer player from New Mexico that went beserk. And Mike Francesca and Jay-Z from Tirico Suave.

We have a new poll question up on the right, go vote (H/T Doug)!

Poll: Who Has Been The Yankees 2009 MVP?

After the amazing sweep of the Red Sox, I have a new poll over to the right: who is the Yankees 2009 MVP. Come to the blog and vote for Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, Mo or Phil Hughes.

I'm torn on this one. What do you think?

Here's the credentials:

Derek Jeter - this guy has been great. He's improved his defense and he's had a bounce-back season at the bat. He's been the lead-off man and captain for this offensive machine

Mark Teixeira - leads AL in HR and has been dominating since April. He's been one of the biggest differences since last season. Johnny Damon says he should be at the forefront of the MVP conversation.

A-Rod - this team is the best in baseball since he's been back and despite going a career-long time without a home run, his HR and RBI's have been clutch this year, including the one on Friday night which set tone for the weekend

Mariano Rivera - one hiccup in Boston but otherwise he's been dominant. Walked his 7th guy of the season today. Yes, he's only walked seven all season. He's also struck out 10 batters per 9 innings (something he hasn't done since 1996) and leads the Majors in saves.

Phil Hughes - the season turned when Hughes took to the bullpen like the Yankees 2007 season turned when Joba Chamberlain went out there. He was their biggest mid-season "acquisition".

Vote to to the right!

Some post-game reactions:

-Peter Abraham says that Hughes wasn't available (and be glad he doesn't abuse his relievers) but Damon and Teixeira bailed them out with big shots. That's now an amazing 31 out of 41 for the Yankees.

-Bronx Banter calls it a Midsummer Night's Dream Come True

-WasWatching on tonight's game where Damon and Teixeira set a record for back-to-back jacks (amazing as that is)

-River Ave Blues says "Game. Set. Match. Sweep"

-Baseball Musings talks about the Yankees come back and mentions Joe Morgan's snide comments about getting on base. It really was ridiculous tonight. He couldn't understand why Nick Swisher would want to get hit by a pitch.

Vote: Should Wang Stay In the Starting Rotation?

The new poll is up over to the right.

Wang's line tonight: 5 IP, 6 hits, 3 runs, 2 walks, 4 Ks, 1 LONG HR, and 91 pitches. It's his longest outing of the season and he looked good up there. He was killed in his last inning by bad defense (a drop by Ramiro Pena), a bonehead play (Melky diving for a ball he could never catch) and bad calls (he had an out at first that was taken away from him).

Jon Heyman said on Twitter: "i wish they would stop grading chien-ming wang on a curve. he went out losing to the nationals. this is not good"

Peter Abraham said on his blog: "Given the improvement, I’d be surprised if they dropped him from the rotation. He gave up three runs and it easily could have been one or two. He did pretty well, all things considered."

My vote is for giving him few more starts and see if he continues to improve. This is like Spring Training in some ways for Wang who is increasing his arm strength again. This guy was a big-time starter and you can never have too many starters. The Red Sox are about to have 6 and I don't think it'll hurt the Yankees to have the same.

So I say keep him in there, but keep him on a short leash. This is about "what have you done for me lately" and if Wang can continue to improve, I think you keep him as a starter...for now.

Poll Question Up

Added a poll question over on the right:

Would You Want The Yankees To Face The Red Sox In The ALCS?

After an 0-7 start it's an interesting question. We seemed cursed against this team, but would you take a chance of being able to upset them again? Do you have confidence that in the playoffs we could turn this around? Answer on the right.