Picking the Final 6 Spots on the Yankees Postseason Roster

Finally. Last night the Yankees clinched a playoff spot which guaranteed something many of us thought was guaranteed weeks ago: the Yankees will be playing postseason baseball yet again. But while the Yankees status in the postseason in certain, what is not as certain is who will be on that postseason roster. With the number of players dropping back down to 25, the Yankees will have to make some important decisions out of the 40 players they currently have on the roster.

Will Austin Kearns join Curtis Granderson on the playoff roster? (Star-Ledger)

As I see it, the Yankees have 19 players locked up. Position players who are locks: Francisco Cervelli, Jorge Posada, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Marcus Thames and Lance Berkman. Pitchers who are locks: CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Kerry Wood, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Boone Logan, and, of course, Mariano Rivera*.  So that leaves 6 spots to fill. Let's look at the pros and cons of each candidate.

*For the record, my postseason rotation would be Sabathia, Pettitte, Hughes and pray for rain. The Yankees seem like long shots to get home-field advantage and I rather Pettitte pitch on the road. I also rather lessen the amount of innings that Hughes will throw in the playoffs, if possible. I don't see an issue bringing back either of the lefties on short rest. And the Yankees have lined up their pitching to go like this so don't be surprised if this is the final verdict (Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus explains further and Larry of Yankeeist has even more). If they need a fourth starter (which the Yankees probably will), though...well, I'll explain later.

Austin Kearns

Why they should pick him: Kearns is the one veteran non-catcher the Yankees have and he has the versatility to play every outfield position. He has a little pop and is decent enough defensively that if someone were to go out, he could hold his own in a start. And with Nick Swisher's gimpy knee, Kearns starting is a forseeable event, especially since Joe Girardi would have to drink an entire case of Avion before he'd ever consider putting Marcus Thames in the outfield in a big spot.
 
Why he could be left off: Kearns has gotten on base at a decent enough clip for the Yankees (.360) but his power has been zapped (5 extra-base hits and 7 RBI in 111 PAs for a very rough 0.95 ISO). Kearns UZR numbers have gone down every season and this season he rates out a negative fielder meaning that he would be a backup who doesn't run or play the field exceptionally well. Since he hit a home run on August 22nd, he's hitting .185/.333/.185 with zero extra-base hits and one measly RBI--yet 3 GIDPs and 23 Ks. He also has a sore left elbow.

Verdict:
Austin Kearns will make the roster unless he's really hurting. His outfield flexibility and veteran presence will make him an asset for Joe Girardi's bench. Although the other three outfielders are better than Kearns regardless of who pitches, Girardi does seem to like to sit Brett Gardner against lefties in favor of Kearns (especially since Curtis Granderson seems, in the words of Stephen R at TYU, "cured"). Although this isn't a good idea, it seems to dictate that Austin "Powers" will get his shag on in the postseason for the first time in his career.

A.J. Burnett

Why they should pick him: Burnett was really good in each Game 2 of last years playoffs, none more so than the "must-win" performance he put up in Game 2 of the World Series at home against the Phillies (7 innings, one run, 4 hits, 2 BB, 9 K). Girardi seems to trust Burnett still and he is making $16.5 M. He's also been better in September (he had a loss against the Rays recently where he was only able to pitch 3 innings due to the rain which looks a lot worse on his stat card). And ESPN's Rob Neyer says he's not bad.

Why he could be left off: Because, well, he's not very good. His 15 losses and 5.33 ERA are historically bad for a Yankees starter and he throws up quite a few stinkbombs. That may be putting it mildly as when A.J. is "Bad A.J." the Yankees really have very little chance of winning. His K/9 rate is going down and he's getting less swings and misses as his velocity has decreased. And he's from the South and tattooed. 

Verdict: He'll be the 4th starter. As Moshe wrote on TYU, let's not overestimate the value of the 4th starter in the playoffs. If the Yankees win a World Series, A.J. will at most have gotten two starts. And with his Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde bit, he's just as good a bet to throw a stinker as to throw a gem. And Girardi knows that when he's off, he's really off and with a deep bullpen, he can afford to give him the quick hook. Would I like to see someone like Ivan Nova in this spot? Maybe. But the money is on A.J. Burnett--as long as he doesn't get completely murdered in his last start.

Javier Vazquez

Why they should pick him: One of the best starters of this past decade could be a good veteran presence out of the bullpen despite his rough year. Would be able to fill in as a spot start and not be as big a drop off as some other pitchers. I think the fact that Girardi decided to start Vazquez tonight over Chad Gaudin (or anyone else) shows that this spot may be his.

Why he could be left off: Because seeing Javy Vazquez make a relief appearance in the playoffs will trigger bad memories. And he's not very good this season. But mostly the first reason. If he comes on with the bases loaded out of the bullpen, it may trigger PTSD relapse for millions of Yankees fans. 

Verdict: I think he'll make it as long as he doesn't get shelled tonight. The Yankees seem quite likely to carry 11 pitchers (since Girardi loves to carry 11 pitchers) and Vazquez would seem to be a good 11th man who they could save for a bad start for Burnett or an injury to Andy Pettitte. Let's just hope he doesn't seem any time in non-mop up duty.

Ivan Nova

Why they should pick him: Big stuff and a big presence. He doesn't seem to fear anyone and he's pitched. Joe from River Ave Blues made a good case for Nova in the bullpen two weeks ago.

Why he could be left off: He's a rookie who barely has spent much time above Double-A in his career. Although he has looked dominant at times, his overall numbers (4.54 ERA, K:BB ratio of 1.79) don't inspire a ton of confidence and his poor pitching with runners on base inspire even less confidence in him as a reliever.   

Verdict: If Girardi goes with 11 pitchers, I think it's between Nova, Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley and Royce Ring, but the fact that Girardi continues to start Nova and has shown great faith in him may put Nova's candidacy over the top in the end. I personally think he leaves him off in favor of a veteran but I'm not sure that's the right move.

Chad Gaudin

Why they should pick him: Joe Girardi seems to have a mancrush of Gaudin. He can pitch long and short relief and spot start if needed.

Why he could be left off: He's just not very good. His 4.50 ERA doesn't tell the story of his 6.26 FIP or giving up over 2 HR per 9 or the fact that despite how many time Girardi keeps on going back to him, he keeps on letting Joe down. FanGraphs rates him at 8.4 runs below average and a WAR of -0.8 which is even worse than Chan Ho Park and would indicate that Gaudin owes the Yankees $3.3 M.

Verdict: I have an odd feeling that Joe keeps Gaudin on the roster, despite the fact that I don't like this move one bit and the stats back up Gaudin's suckiness. 

Sergio Mitre

Why they should pick him: Surprisingly good results (3.51 ERA) and a lower walk rate (2.81) than any pitcher on the team except for Mariano Rivera or CC Sabathia

Why he could be left off: Because "less sucky" isn't a good enough reason to include someone. He's still not great and 4.38 K/9 isn't going to scare anyone.

Verdict: Mitre would be a better pick than Gaudin, but I doubt that's how Girardi sees it. Unless something drastic changes, I can't see Mitre making the postseason roster. Odd to think Mitre was a big part of the bullpen earlier in the season when you look at the top guns they have now.

Dustin Moseley

Why they should pick him: Showed he could be a competant starter for a while and before that, he showed that he may be a promising reliever.

Why he could be left off: I think the fact that Girardi went with Vazquez over Moseley for the start tonight tells all you need to know.

Verdict: Moseley has done a really good job for the Yanks but I think he's going to fall out of this race.

Royce Ring

Why they should pick him: The Yankees have one lefty in the bullpen and that's the unproven Boone Logan. Last year Girardi had two lefties in the bullpen (Phil Coke and Damaso Marte) and with guys like Josh Hamilton, Joe Mauer and Carlos Pena batting from the left side, a specialist could be helpful.

Why he could be left off: 2 games and 1.2 innings pitched in the Majors this season doesn't exactly scream confidence. 

Verdict: Girardi has had plenty of opportunity to use Ring and has decided not to do so. I think he would like to have another lefty out of the bullpen but he'll settle with just Logan.

Greg Golson

Why they should pick him: Speedy and good defensively. Could be the Freddy Guzman of this year's postseason roster. The game-ending, flat-footed throw to nail Evan Longoria last week was a great selling point, especially with a gimpy Nick Swisher in need of a late-inning defensive caddy. And with all the lefties pitching for the other postseason teams, a righty outfielder on the bench is a help.

Why he could be left off: Joe Girardi has gone to almost everyone to pinch-run over Golson who while fast, is not a good instinctive baserunner. That's not a good endoresement for a post-season roster spot.

Verdict: The fact that Ramiro Pena can play the outfield and that Austin Kearns seems like he'll make it may spell the end for Golson. In some ways, Golson makes a ton of sense, but with a really good defensive outfield and other deserving players, I think Golson gets cut.

Ramiro Pena

Why they should pick him: Speaking of Pena, I think that his flexibility (can play all of the infield and outfield and is the Yankees emergency catcher) is his selling card. With a team without a real hole, he'll be used only for defense (which he's really good at) or speed (which he certainly possesses). He's better than Nunez defensively and seems to have the trust of Girardi

Why he could be left off: He can't hit a lick meaning that if he's brought in to pinch run and has to bat later in the game, the Yankees could be in trouble. Also, if the Yankees go with one infielder, Nunez could be the guy after strong play as of late.

Verdict: I think he makes it. Despite the fact that he's a black hole of offense, his glove is really strong and his versatility would offset having essentially two DH's (Berkman and Thames) on the roster.

Eduardo Nunez

Why they should pick him: Eduardo Nunez's steal of third base the other night was the kind of gutsy move that may have propelled Nunez on the roster. Nunez is bat is better than Pena's by a lot and he strikes out very little (4.3% in the majors 13.1% in the minors in 2010). And he's 5 for 5 in stealing bases so far in the Majors

Why he could be left off: While his bat may be better than Pena's, his glove doesn't compare, especially at third base, a position he's just recently learning. Doesn't have the positional flexibility of someone like Pena or even someone like Golson. Also is only 23 and lacks the big-league experience.

Verdict: I thought originally it would be Golson over Nunez because of "the throw" but now I think Nunez may have the edge because of "the steal". Last season the Yankees had Jerry Hairston, Jr (the versatiale utility infielder) and Ramiro Pena (the other utility infielder) and they can have the same thing in the playoffs in 2010. I think it'll be down to the wire between Nunez and Golson but the fact that Girardi chose Nunez to pinch run says a helluva lot to me.

Chad Moeller

Why they should pick him: Three catchers can help out a team like the Yankees who would love to be able to pinch run for Jorge Posada late in games. Moeller is a veteran who can step in and catch in a pinch

Why he could be left off: He's not very good and it seems like a waste of a roster spot.

Verdict: I wouldn't be shocked if Girardi went with Moeller but I think it would be the wrong decision. Moeller would allow the Yankees very little maneuverability on their bench. And if Posada or Cervelli got hurt mid-series, the Yankees would have the option of bringing Moeller on anyways. The only issue is in-game and  for that small issue, I can't see the Yankees keeping Moeller on the roster.

Jonathan Abaladejo

Why they should pick him: Was a shut-down closer for the Yankees Triple-A squad this year and would probably be the best option for a short-reliever, especially with Mariano Rivera tweaking with his mechanics.

Why he could be left off: Girardi has eschewed Alby for almost every other pitcher. I can't see him deciding to include him now

Verdict: No chance, though I think he should have been given a larger opportunity.

With apologies to Andrew Brackman, Romulo Sanchez, Juan Miranda, Colin Curtis, and Kevin Russo, I think those are your candidates for the final 6 spots. If I had to guess right now, I think Girardi will go with Kearns, Pena, Nunez, Vazquez, Burnett and Gaudin. If it were me, I'd sub out Gaudin (and maybe Vazquez) for Nova or Mitre. I'd also seriously give Golson a chance (I think Nick Swisher in the field with his knee in the late innings is a bad idea). Who would make your final roster? Let us know in the comments below.