Stretch Drive Previews: The AL Central

We started in the AL East and now we head to the American League Central for our Stretch Drive Previews series. This is a division which has had two pennant winner in the past dozen years (the 2005 White Sox and the 2006 Tigers)  and has only captured the Wild Card once (2006 when Detroit and Minnesota both made it). An AL Central playoff team has played the AL East in the playoffs each of the last 7 years, advancing only in 2005 and 2006. With that in mind, let's take a look at the September outlooks for the AL Central teams (% slashes per team are division/wild card/overall playoffs):

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	Strk	R	RA	Rdiff	pythWL	Home	Road	1Run	≥.500	<.500	last10	last20	last30
1	MIN	76	56	.576	---	W 1	4.8	4.0	0.8	77-55	41-22	35-34	24-20	28-27	48-29	5-5	13-7	20-10
2	CHW	72	60	.545	4.0	W 2	4.8	4.2	0.6	74-58	38-27	34-33	21-21	22-29	50-31	6-4	9-11	14-16
3	DET	65	67	.492	11.0	L 1	4.5	4.6	-0.1	65-67	43-25	22-42	14-20	26-40	39-27	6-4	11-9	13-17
4	KCR	56	76	.424	20.0	W 1	4.1	5.3	-1.2	51-81	30-34	26-42	25-25	28-44	28-32	4-6	9-11	14-16
5	CLE	53	79	.402	23.0	L 3	4.0	4.9	-0.9	54-78	29-38	24-41	19-17	31-45	22-34	3-7	6-14	11-19
	Avg	64	67	.488			4.4	4.6		64-67	36-29	28-38	20-20	27-37	37-30	4-5	9-10	14-15

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/1/2010.

Minnesota Twins (85.9% / 0.2% / 86.1% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com, 89.4% / 0.1% / 89.6% chances according to Baseball Prospectus, and 86.6% / <.1% / 86.7% according to PECOTA)

Will the addition of Manny Ramirez make a difference in this race? (CBC)

Last year Minnesota tracked down Detroit at the very end of the season to stage one of the greatest end-of-season comebacks in the Wild Card era. This year, it's Minnesota who tries not to collapse and give up their AL Central lead. While the Red Sox, Phillies and others have been praised for their play despite injuries, the Twins may be even more reslient. They lost All-Star closer Joe Nathan before the season even started and have had 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau for only 81 games (though he amazingly still is tied for the team lead in HR). And yet they're cruising right along in the AL Central. Part of that certainly has to do with a starting pitching staff anchored by Carl Pavano (15-10, 3.52 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.94 xFIP) and Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.41 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 9.72 K/9) and really good defense. But a lot of credit has to go to the depth of the lineup which has forged ahead and put together the 3rd highest wOBA and Runs Above Average (according to FanGraphs) in the majors behind only the Yankees and Red Sox. This is impressive in what has been a pitching-friendly, home-run-suppressing Target Field (where they play Texas, Oakland, and Toronto--their three out-of-division opponents the rest of the way).

But while overall they may be the best team in baseball by WAR, the question still remains: can they hold off Chicago and can they advance past the first round (especially if they have to play the Yankees again for the 4th time in 8 years)? Well to try to ensure that, the Twins have gone about fixing up their bullpen, trading one of their top prospects to Washington for Matt Capps (to replace Jon Rauch as closer) and picking up Brian Fuentes off waivers from the Angels (to replace all their injured lefty specialists). The difference-maker for the Twins may be recently-turned 40-year-old Jim Thome who has has a .976 OPS and has hit 18 HR. While the White Sox have been searching for a DH all season (hence, Manny), the Twins have had an ex-White Sox slugger, Thome, who has been one of the best DHs. The key though may be Morneau--this past week's plan to send him home to get over his post-concussion issues look to be the last ditch effort to save his 2010 season. Without him, the Twins have shown a reliance the past two seasons and certainly have the core to win. But with him, the Twins are going to be a team no one will want to face down the stretch or in October.

Chicago White Sox (14.0% / 0.6% / 14.6% coolstandings, 10.5% / 0.4% / 10.8% BP, 13.2% / 0.1% / 13.3% PECOTA)

MannyBeingManny has adorned the pale-hose as opposed to his other Sox, and we'll see if he can propel the Red Sox to the playoffs as he did for the Dodgers a few years back. The White Sox have had an interesting season from their position players, enjoying renaissance seasons from free-agent-to-be Paul Konerko and Alex Rios, speed and defense from Alexei Ramirez and Juan Pierre, while giving way too many ABs to players like Mark Teahen, Jayson Nix and, especially Mark Kotsay. In some ways, this team also had their DH with Carlos Quentin (-17.0 UZR) roaming the OF. Where this team has excelled (and where they were going to win or lose), though, has been the pitching. Matt Thornton (12.2 K/9, 2.66 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 2.58 xFIP) and J.J. Putz (10.53 K/9, 2.68 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and 2.81 xFIP) have been a great bridge to closer Bobby Jenks (who despite great peripheral numbers, has not been great with a 4.65 ERA) and has helped to try to shore up a shaky bullpen (Thornton and Putz' recent injuries may be tough for the Sox to overcome). The starting rotation has been really solid with Gavin Floyd (9-11 but 3.86 ERA, 3.47 FIP and 3.80 xFIP means his record doesn't convey his really good season) and John Danks (12-9, 3.65 ERA, 3.60 FIP) leading the way, Edwin Jackson (3-0, 1.47 ERA, 11.1 K/9 with the ChiSox, 10+ Ks in his past 3 starts ties White Sox record) providing a mid-season spark, and Mark Buehrle (12-10, 3.95 ERA, 4.07 FIP) continuing to role along. If Jake Peavy had been healthy and effective all season, this team may have swapped spots with Minnesota at this point. Thank the Don Cooper program for the pitching prowess.

So will they have enough to get by Minnesota in September? Maybe. With a 3 game series left in Chicago and the boost by Manny, they certainly have a chance. But their brutal September schedule may do them in. They play 7 against the Red Sox and two brutal road trips for 7 games in Boston and Detroit and 6 games in Oakland and Los Angeles, though they finish the season with 3 against recently swept Cleveland. They need to hope they can take down the Tigers and Angels and Royals and A's of the Majors who have really fallen out of contention and are left to play the role of spoilers. If we stop pretending that Manny isn't any good, and we realize that when he's focused and motivated (he's in a contract year), he's dangerous, this White Sox team may put some pressure on the Twins. But President Obama and the rest of the Sox fans better hope from a Twins collapse if they're going to play into October.

Detroit Tigers (0.1% / <0.1% / 0.1% on coolstandings and BP, 0.2% / 0% / 0.2% on PECOTA)

What looked like a promising season has spiraled into this. Jim Leyland must be smoking a lot of cigarettes. Miguel Cabrera is an MVP-caliber candidate and they have a ton of young talent (some thanks to the trades of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson), but they just didn't have enough bullets to keep up with the rest of the division. Now at two games under .500, they will be playing the role of spoiler despite what Johnny Damon may think.

Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals (no chance)

Spoiler status only at this point, the Indians and Royals both seem far away from contention. The Indians have been doomed by trades, Travis Hafner's demise and Grady Sizemore's injuries; the Royals by bad signings (Jose Guillen) and slow-to-develop prospects (Alex Gordon). It's not a particulary deep division, but it may be a while before either team is in a postseason discussion.

5 Questions:

Minnesota got Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes to solidify their bullpen. Is this enough to put Minnesota over the top?

Ben: "It could, but it's still no substitute for playing back in the Metrodome."

Jay: "Yes, in terms of winning the AL Central. I don't see M-m-m-m-manny and the Sox coming back. But I don't think the Twins have enough starting pitching to advance deep in the playoffs. Carl Pavano has had a resurgence, sure, but his numbers are less than impressive against teams over .500 (his ERA jumps from 2.85 to 4.30, to name one such stat). Does Nick Blackburn or Scott Baker scare you? Francisco Liriano? Gut feeling = Minnesota is a speed bump on some team's path to the World Series."

Ari: "Make the playoffs? Probably. Tho it has more to do with their division being weak than the arms they acquired."

My opinion: I think Fuentes will be valuable against Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, Robinson Cano, and the rest of the lefties, but Capps shouldn't scare many teams at the end of the game.

How much does Manny Ramirez help to close that 4.5 game gap in the AL Central?

Jay: "Not much. Assuming that Chicago got Manny for his bat, I have to wonder why this move was even necessary. The White Sox have only scored 3 fewer runs than Minnesota all season (629 vs. 626 right now). Scoring runs doesn't seem to be the problem. Getting a pitcher might have helped more, and it wouldn't have introduced Manny the Walking Talking Distraction into the clubhouse."

Ari: "This is a good spot for Manny, as it was when he went to LA. But we all know now that when he hit .368 for the Dodgers and established Mannyland he wasn't exactly doing it o'natural. Now that he probably isn't juicing, and has had all of 2 hits in the last like 60 days, I don't see him contributing enough to get them past the Twins."

Ben: "Depends on which Manny Ramirez shows up to play. Since his 50 game suspension last year he has been a mere shadow of the player that we saw on LA in 2008. However, if he can post numbers somewhere in between what we saw in 2008 and what we are seeing from him right now then I think he could make a big difference in a lineup that is somewhat short on power.:

My opinion: a motivated Manny is tough to stop, but as I said above, it may not mean enough to get Chicago in the playoffs.

In the past two years both Minnesota and Chicago have lost in the ALDS to a team from the AL East. Since it looks like that match-up will once again occur, can the AL Central winner move on to the ALCS?

Ari: "No, next question."

Ben: "Chicago maybe, Minnesota no. Chicago's starting pitching is marginally better than Minnesota's but they don't match up well against the Yanks, Rays, and Sox. Rangers match up well with them on starting pitching but can outhit both teams quite easily. Once again, it will probably be a quick trip home for either team."

Jay: "No. I think the Rays and Yankees are both better than either AL Central team. I expect to see a repeat of the 2009 Yanks vs. Twins ALDS matchup."

My opinion: Whether it's the 4th time in 8 years in Yankees vs. Twins in the ALDS or any other match-up it won't matter. I think the AL East has this though the Twins could push it to the limit.

The White Sox play the Red Sox 7 more times the rest of the season (but, remember, with Manny), who has the advantage here?

Ben: "Red Sox would benefit more if four of the games weren't in Chicago. However, Boston is still a better team and can probably outpitch the White Sox. Advantage Boston."

Jay: "Chicago, probably. They are closer to a playoff spot, so they should be hungrier. And they have gotten the Manny boost, whereas the Red Sox are still hurting from injuries. With the way Boston has been slumping lately (losing 4 of 5) it doesn't look like the Red Sox will be legit playoff contenders. Look for Chicago to take at least 4 of 7...especially since they close with 4 at home in US Cellular Field."

Ari: "Sox. Oh wait, they are both called the sox? That is just confusing. Yeah, injuries aside, the Red Sox rotation is just nasty. They have the edge down the stretch here."

My opinion: The White Sox and a vengeful Manny. But it's close.

Will Minnesota collapse like Detroit did last year or will they hold on to win the AL Central?

Jay: "Minnesota will hold on because they can hold leads. It's a veteran team with a great manager and some new bullpen arms who have something to prove. I like their chances."

Ari: "Minny's got this. Despite the bullseye on them (get it, Target field? I'm funny) they will hold on."

Ben: "A 4.0 game lead on September 1 isn't too big so losing that lead wouldn't exactly be a total collapse. However, Minnesota has traditionally been a strong September team and Chicago has not so I give the advantage to Minnesota.

My opinion: It's going to be Minnesota and some very cold playoff games at Target Field.

It looks like it should be a good race down to the finish in the AL Central. The Twinkies and ChiSox both would seem to have uphill climbs to make the World Series but with MVP-caliber 1st basemen, veteran DH's, and a good top-2 in their pitching staffs, they have a chance to do some real damage. Can they get past the other three teams in the playoffs? That remains to be seen.