Hot Stove Coal: What Is Dave Dombrowski Doing with the Tigers?

When Dave Dombrowski traded Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson this off-season, the general thinking seemed to be that this was a salary dump. The Tigers (namely Dombrowski himself) had made bad contract decisions, the Michigan economy is in the crapper effecting the team finances, and/or Edwin Jackson's arbitration figure was too high for the Tigers. That may have been the excuse used at the time, but that wasn't exactly what happened. Let's examine (with help from MLBTradeRumors) the moves up until this past week:

Players Lost:

• Placido Polanco - the Tigers could have arbitration to keep him for less than $5 for 2010 or gotten a first-round draft pick had he still signed with the Phillies.
• Fernando Rodney - signed a 2 year, $11 M deal with the Angels as a Type-B, arbitration-offered free agent
• Brandon Lyon - got a ridiculous 3 year, $15 M deal with the Astros as a Type-B, arbitration-offered free agent
• Clay Rapada/Dusty Ryan - lefty reliever Rapada traded to the Rangers for PTBNL or cash, catcher Ryan the same thing
• Edwin Jackson - should command up to $5 M in arbitration but was one of the better pitchers the first half of the year last season
• Freddy Dolsi - useful reliever was put on waivers and picked up by the White Sox
• Curtis Granderson - star CF and most popular Tiger traded to Yankees, has 3 years left on his extension but will only make $5.5 M this next season
• Marcus Thames - non-tendered by club after earning $2.275 M in 2009 (though still has not signed elsewhere)

Players Added/Resigned:

• Adam Everett - resigned for one year, $1.55 M
• Daniel Schlereth, Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke - All acquired in the Jackson/Granderson trade and all are controllable and afforbable
• Enrique Gonzalez, Macay McBride, Robinzon Diaz, Brad Thomas - all cheap options for the team

Ok, so the pattern has stuck. The team got rid of a potential $5 million salary in Polanco (and are handing the second-base job over to rookie Scott Sizemore), a potential $5 million salary in Jackson, a $5.5 million 2010 salary in Granderson and didn't sign two relievers they felt they could replace with the young relievers they acquired in the off-season. Nice work by Dombrowski to shed ~$15 M or so of payroll and make the team younger. He also gained two sandwich picks for the Lyon and Rodney signings. So he was able to make his team younger, cheaper, and build towards the future.

So he stuck with that plan, right?

Wrong. The Tigers turned around and took some of that saved money and signed closer Jose Valverde to a 2 year, $14 M deal with a $9 million option. Being a Type A free agent, the Tigers are going to have to give up their first-round pick for the privilege of signing this guy. Oh, and Valverde is a guy, as Dave Cameron of Fangraphs notes "who pitches up in the strike zone and has a history of giving up home runs (which, you know, can be a problem when you’re asked to protect a one run lead) and has below average command to boot (career 3.6 BB/9)." Ouch.

To make it more ouch, the Tigers totally ignored a market that had soured on all players. Adam LaRoche proved just before this deal was signed that it had truly transformed into a buyer's market when he turned down a two-year, $17.5 M offer from the Giants earlier in the off-season (because he was aiming for 3) and ended up with a one-year, $4.5 M deal with the D-backs. Yet Dombrowski totally ignored that and signed Valverde. He figured Houston had signed Lyon to a ridiculous contract, so maybe they should do the same with ex-Houston closer Valverde.

Now the Tigers have turned their sights on Johnny Damon to fill an offensive hole and become their lead-off hitter. Now unless Damon's demands have come down to LaRoche-like levels, it seems like he's still due a two-year, $18-$20 M or so deal. If the Tigers do sign Damon, there is no doubt that they'll probably at least match the $15 M saved from the Polanco/Granderson/Jackson group leaving. And he's giving up a first-round pick in the process.

So what was the point? It obviously was not about the money here (no offense to Jason). Cutoff Man suggests that it was Dombrowski's skepticism about Curtis Granderson. And while that may be true, if he was so skeptical about Granderson, why not wait to trade him when his value was a little higher?  The blog post suggests that Dombrowski didn't like the average decline and the outfield misplays of Granderson, but why trade him now when everyone has seen that? Why not let him start the season and see if he can increase his value. Granderson's best monthly SLG and OPS is in April when he's posted .535 and .885 marks. Why not let him get off to a fast start and then trade him?

As a Yankee fan, this type of skepticism of Granderson scares me, but I wonder if this may just be a case of the same-old Dombrowski. In 2010 he's paying Magglio Ordonez $18 M, Miguel Cabrera $20 M, Jeremy Bonderman $12.5 M, Carlos Guillen $13 M, Dontrelle Willis $12 M, and Nate Robertson $10 M. A General Manager who gives out contracts like that is not one who I worry about when he becomes skeptical. I just think rather than trying to get rid of Granderson because of skepticism, Dombrowski just doesn't know what he's doing.