A Very Brief NFL Playoffs Preview

I wanted to do a very brief playoff preview before the playoffs started. I've ranked the teams in order from best to worst (in my view) heading into the big dance.

One thing to point out: The Chargers have won eleven games in a row. The two next-longest winning streaks are the Cowboys at 3 games and the Pack and Jets at 2. The only other teams to win in Week 17 were the Vikings and the Ravens (and both played pushover teams). That's it.

1. Indianapolis Colts. No team is rooting for a Jets upset more than the Colts. They are armed and dangerous and until someone stops Payton Manning in a game this season (as opposed to their backup QB), I don't believe there's another favorite. I think the end of the Patriots game was indicative of this team: the defense makes the stops when needed and Manning is impossible to stop in big spots.
Key player: Payton Manning. This team lives and dies on what he does. No one has beaten the Colts in a game where Payton Manning played the whole game. No one.

2. San Diego Chargers. Many people's favorites coming in, but I want to see them win a few big games first. As always, the offensive combination of QB/RB/TE/WR they have is devastating. Their +134 point differential was top in the AFC and they have won 11 straight coming into the playoffs as I stated above. If any team is hot, it's this one. I just want to see them do it before I anoint them.
Key player: LDT. He can cement his legacy with a big playoffs or he can just add to the note of "never won the big one".

3. New Orleans Saints. It bothers me they lost 3 in a row to end the season, but when you've dominated by as much as the Saints have, why take a chance injuring guys like the Pats did with Wes Welker? This team had an NFL-high +169 point differential in the regular season, were +11 (3rd in the NFL) on turnovers and scored 31.9 points per game. Here, another game against the Pats is indicitve of what they can do against a team when they absolutely shred the Pats. Their defense (especially the secondary) is a bit shaky, but Drew Brees can win a shootout, if necessary.
Key player: Sean Payton. I know he's not a player, but he needs to get his team in focus. When they play next weekend, they won't have won a game for over a month. He needs to get them ready to play.

4. Minnesota Vikings. I wanted to move them down, but a guarantee of a home game and a perfect 8-0 record at home makes me rethink that one. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the playoffs and with Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice, and Brett Favre, that offense is really good. The question is on the defense and how they would fare on the road against New Orleans. If it came to the latter point (the NFC Championship Game), I think the Vikings would take it.
Key player: Adrian Peterson. Needs to keep the fumbles out of the game and dominate the rest of it. He helps Favre so much by keeping an extra guy in the box.

5. Green Bay Packers. I moved them a bunch of times on this list but they ended up here in the end. I've become an Aaron Rodgers believer. This team had a +164 point differential which was second-best in the entire playoffs. This is an amazing feat from a team that plays half their games in Lambeau Field. I feel like another Brett Favre match-up is on the horizon here. This team leads the league with a +24 turnover differential. I have a feeling my defensive MVP, Charles Woodson, will have something to say about this game.
Key player: Charles Woodson. IMO, he's the defensive MVP and he's going to have to go up against the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Percy Harvin, Marques Colston, Miles Austin, and DeSean Jackson in the NFC.     

6. Dallas Cowboys. Who knows if this is the right place for them. This team has been known to just collapse in the playoffs and the thought of playing in front of 100,000+ at home this weekend is going to be tough. They beat New Orleans and Philly twice, though, and their 24-0 drubbing of the Eagles meant that they concluded 3 weeks of @New Orleans, @Washington, and vs. Philly 65-17 with 3 wins and no points given up in each of the last two games. That's impressive. Also impressive: their defense gave up the second-least points on the season at 15.6 points per game. This team could be tough if they continue on their roll. This is one team that should scare Minnesota as a possible second-round match-up.
Key player: Tony Romo. The pressure is on the man to win a playoff game. If he doesn't, I think Wade Phillips is out and Romo is going to hear a lot more about how he's not a winner.

7. Philadelphia Eagles. You could flip-flop the Eagles and the Pats but I'll mark the Eagles a tick higher because of the Welker injury. This looked like one of the best teams in the NFL until a Week 17 thumping by the Cowboys. Amazingly, the Eagles did not beat a playoff team all season. Let me repeat that, the Eagles were zero and 4 against playoff teams. Another trip to the NFC Championship Game (followed by heartbreak, of course), seems like a tough road for this team. But if they can play like they did during their 6-game win streak from Week 11-Week 16, they are a dangerous team to face. They had the second-highest turnover rate in the NFL at +15.
Key Player: DeSean Jackson. No player is more dynamic and no one has the propensity for the big play. Withouth his big play ability, this isn't a dominant team.

8. New England Patriots. They have to be right next to Baltimore. The loss to Welker is devestating. Mike Francesa declared on WFAN that it won't matter because "Julian Edelman looks 98% like Welker". Umm...ok? The Pats may win one at home where they are a perfect 8-0 this season. But a 2-6 road record scares me in a second-round match-up against a really good San Diego offense. The Saints game made me truly question how this team could win a big game on the road in the playoffs. But this team did have the 6th best offense in the regular season and the 5th best defense so maybe I'm underestimating this Belichick-coached team.
Key Player: Bill Belichick. "The Genius" needs to come up with a solution for a porous defense and the loss of Welker. This is not going to be an easy task.

9. Baltimore Ravens. I actually really like this team and could see them making a huge run in the playoffs. But coming in, they have serious questions marks. Joe Flacco hasn't had as smooth of a sophomore campaign and although Ray Rice has been great, Flacco's cast around him this year has not been as good as last season. Flacco and his receivers need to come up big in crunch time and the defense needs to have some huge games for this run to continue. Their +10 takeaway/giveaway differential is 4th best in the NFL. The problem for the Ravens is that 6 of their 7 losses came against playoff teams making them 1-6 against playoff teams overall. Ouch.
Key Players: Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Baltimore only lost two games all season by more than 6 points. In each of those games, they failed to get a running back to 55 yards. Those were the only two games that happened.

10. Arizona Cardinals. They're in the exact same position they were in last season which makes them scary. But with all the injuries this team has, I don't see them pulling it off this year again. Vegas feels the same way as they've moved a 3-point spread to basically a pick'em game. Although they are the #4 seed, the Cards have the worst record in the NFC playoffs, worst point differential in the NFC playoffs and are only 4-4 at home. I'd be surprised if they won more than one game, especially with their -7 turnover differential which has them ranked 24th in the NFL.
Key Player: Kurt Warner. Green Bay made Matt Leinart's life hell last week and they're going to try to do the same this week against the veteran HOF QB.

11. Cincinnati Bengals. This team is a bit overrated. They beat up a pretty weak division which gave them 6 wins. But they finished with only a +14 point differential, by far the lowest of any playoff team. The last time they beat a good team was November 15th when they took down Pittsburgh. Their last win against a playoff team was November 8th. The Bengals also have a 0 turnover differential which is 18th in the NFL and played well over their expected W-L (of 8-8). They may beat the weaker Jets in the Wild Card Round, but their 4-4 record on the road does not sit well against the Bolts or Colts in the Divisional Round.
Key Player: Cedric Benson. The Bengals have lost only one game all year in which they had a 100-yard runner and it happened to be a week where Benson was out. He needs to pave the way for this offense.  

12. New York Jets. It's not that they're worse than the Bengals, but I have no faith in their QB. They amazingly racked up a +112 point differential in the regaular season and have held opponents to an NFL-low of only 236 points, but this team was dead a few weeks ago and because teams rolled over for them to make the playoffs, doesn't mean they're a favorite. They have to go into Cincy (where the Bengals are 6-2) and if they win, they have to go back to Indy with Payton Manning playing the whole game. I don't see how this team makes the AFC Championship. But they may continue to surprise me.
Key Player: Mark Sanchez. The Bengals should be playing 8 in the box and forcing Sanchez to beat them. For the Jets to win, I think he needs to limit his mistakes and make at least one big play.

What do you think? Agree or disagree?