Thursday, January 7, 2010

Hot Stove Coal: Who Should be the Yankees' OF Bench/LF Pickup?

The Yankees have filled in most of their holes this off-season. Their pitching staff and bullpen are about set (though they need to figure out who will play which role) and their lineup is mostly set. Their bench seems like it will consist of Francisco Cervelli and one of the young middle infielders (like Ramiro Pena) as the utility infielder (although LoHud's Chad Jennings points out that could change). Jamie Hoffmann, the Yankees Rule 5 pick, seems like a good option to make the team as a 5th OF out of Spring Training. But the Yankee bench is missing a power hitter, and the Yankees still want to pick up on right-handed hitter to be the LF/CF right-handed caddy for lefties Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson. Let's look at a bunch of candidates (in no particular order) and evaluate who the Yankees should get for the only position we all should be talking about:

The top two candidates:

Johnny Damon: (MLBTradeRumors rumors)
  • Pros: The longer his name stays out there, the more likely it is that the Yankees find a way to bring him back. He is the best free agent left on the market according to SI's Jon Heyman and Heyman points out that Damon's signing would allow the Yankees to reconstruct the 1-4 of their lineup from last year which was so successful. Damon's price-tag would certainly have fallen and the Yankees may be able to get him for a bargain-basement price--and at the right price, as JoePaw at River Avenue Blues points out, Damon is certainly worth it. Damon has shown his ability to play in the Bronx and his double-steal in the World Series was one of the key plays. Damon's signing would mean that 1-9 of the Yankee lineup would be strong and would put Gardner in a very valuable bench role (of course, if it's Damon, it renders the headline of this post irrelevant). And since Damon hits lefties well, he would be an upgrade over others.
  • Cons: If--as River Avenue Blues' Benjamin Kabak states--everyone is too expenive for Yanks' LF hole, then Damon isn't going to fit into their plans. Damon has other potential suitors in the Giants, Mariners, Braves or Angels and he should have plenty of offers to choose from. Even if Damon comes back for cheap, many in the Yankee organization have wondered if he'd mope around coming back for a discount. Damon was slowed the past few years by injuries and may be headed towards a downturn. May only be had for two-year deal which could put them out of the running for Carl Crawford next winter. Damon also is a defensive liability out in left, something the Yankees are trying to get rid of. And as Jason at IIATMS points out, it seems like the train has already left the station.
  • Twitter: @jfirestone: I think they need to go back to Johnny Damon for at least two years, at 8 Mil a year.

Reed Johnson (MLBTradeRumors rumors):
  • Pros: Seemingly the perfect candidate for the bench job: hits lefties at a career hash of .313/.378/.463, can play all three OF spots and would seemingly be cheap. Even when Johnson had poor season (2007 and 2009 for example), he still posted an OPS over .900 against lefties. His best spot is LF where he has a career UZR of 42.5 in 2666.2 innings according to FanGraphs. And LF is where the Yankees could probably use him the most. The last season he got more than 375 PAs was 2006 in the AL East with Toronto and overall he posted a .319/.390/.479 line. He's a hard-nosed player and does not seem like he'll be pining for playing time. If he's cheap enough, there is very little risk involved with bring him on. And the only other player from Riverside, CA to play for the Yankees was Bobby Bonds who posted great numbers in 1975 as a right-handed OF for the Yanks.
  • Cons: He gets injured way too much. I'm not sure the Yankees want to acquire another huge injury risk with Nick Johnson already coming back to Pinstripes. And the injuries Johnson have been of the back and lower body variety which may be of some concern. CHONE (via FanGraphs) predicts a -10.0 UZR for Johnson next season which is worrisome.Also worrisome, 2006 was Johnson's only really good season with the bat in the major leagues. Johnson's Baseball-Reference splits also show that he hit a paltry .234/.318/.287 in the Old Yankee Stadium (though that may have been his opponents fault) and that he's only hit one opposite field home run in his entire career (which may not play well at the New Yankee Stadium). Pinstriped Bible's Steven Goldman says that Johnson is "at the low end of what the Yankees should be looking for given his relative helplessness (.265/.324/.383) against normal-handers."   
  • Twitter: @markelderallen: For me it's Reed Johnson. Look at the numbers, the age, the positional versatility and the price and tell me it's not smart.
A few other candidates:
Fernando Tatis:
  • Pros: Can play in New York. Can play 3rd base for A-Rod as well as the corner OFs. Is right-handed. Posted an OPS of .853 for Mets in 2008 as a bench player.
  • Cons: As a more everyday player last season, his OPS fell to .777 and his career splits are actually better against righties. May be tainted by Mets stink/injury bug. @sherlockhomz: Tatis seems like a decent bat but geez he was a Met for 2 years...
Marcus Thames:
  • Pros: Once a Yankee and the Yankees seem to be in the habit of acquiring their former players. Has pop from right side. Has career .845 OPS vs. lefties.
  • Cons: Not a good fielder. Has posted a UZR of -16.7 in 1766 innings in LF. His career OBP is .306. .233/.281/.461 against righties make him only a platoon option. 
Johnny Gomes:
  • Pros: Pop from the right side. Posted .879 OPS and 20 HR last season in 314 PAs. .885 Career OPS vs. lefties.
  • Cons: Better off as a DH. A total loss in the field with a combined UZR of -30.3 in 1587.1 innings in the OF. A little bit of a headcase. Only .160/.250/.293 as a pinch hitter.
Felipe Lopez:
  • Pros: @CraftyLefty318: Felipe Lopez as a super-sub? Would be a super sub (2B, SS, 3B, LF, RF) capable of spelling regulars on a given day. Energized by pennant races, he had slashes of .385/.426/.538 (42 games) after STL acquired him in 2008 and .320/.407/.448 (66 games) after MIL acquired him in 2009. Had a .835 OPS vs. lefties in 2009. Stole 44 bases in 2006. Posted WAR of 4.6 last season.
  • Cons: Probably best-suited for 2nd base. Switch hitter with only a career .727 OPS vs. lefties. May cost much more than the Yankees want to spend. Speed seems to be gone with only 14 SB combined the past two seasons.
Jermaine Dye:
  • Pros: Right-handed and powerful. He's a rightfielder so Dye would move Nick Swisher to LF where the projections say he'd be better defensively. Dye could also be cheap as River Ave Blues points out and has had success in the past.
  • Cons: As IIATMS outlines, Dye is awful defensively. Also, a bad end to last season may be signaling the beginning of the end for Dye.
Xavier Nady:
  • Pros: Been a Yankee already and was supposed to be the team's starting RF last season (though I think it all worked out for the best for the Yankees). His last full season in the majors was his best and the X-man has been a good performer when healthy.
  • Cons: He just had Tommy John surgery for a second time. That has to give some pause. He's also below average defensively and this can't help his arm. May be expensive, still.
Jerry Hairston, Jr.
  • Pros: Versatile. Part of the Yankees' championship run in 2009 and Girardi seemed to like him enough to give him a start in the World Series. Seemed like a good teammate and can play 3rd for A-Rod when he needs a rest
  • Cons: Steven Goldman: Hairston is...a career .256/.331/.367 hitter against right-handers. You know who hits right-handers better than that? Everybody. He’s also a career .264/.323/.386 hitter against left-handers. You know who hits left-handers better than that? Everyone who is right-handed. There is no point.
Ryan Garko:
  • Pros: Hit 285/.362/.464 with 11 homers and a .361 wOBA in 273 PAs for Indians last year before being traded. Potential for big RH bat. .887 career OPS vs. lefties.
  • Cons: Hit poorly after trade to the Giants and was non-tendered which does not say much for Garko. Probably best-suited for DH and not the OF. 
Ryan Church:
  • Pros: Looked like a star in the making a few years back and may just need a change of scenery to get back there. As River Ave Blues points out, almost all of his problems with the Mets were concussion-related as he produced when not concussed. Above average defense.
  • Cons: No one really knows if he can recover from the concussions. Church is a lefty and they need a righty. Already got his change of scenery (to Atlanta at the deadline) but didn't produce enough to be offered arbitration.
Randy Winn
  • Pros: From 2002-08, posted .294/.350/.440 line. Career UZR of 48.5 in the OF in 12,968 innings. Professional player and veteran presence who can still play all three OF positions. Posted WAR of 2.7 or better in 6 of 7 seasons from 2002-2008.
  • Cons: Brutal season with the bat last year. Only .758 career OPS vs. lefties.
Rocco Baldelli:
  • Pros: RH bat. Good OF defender. When healthy, he's a productive player. Hits much better vs. LHP.
  • Cons: Has had hard time staying healthy due to injuries and disease which zaps his energy. Not a good 2009. Seems to have peaked in 2006. Does not hit righties well at all.
    Tony Clark:
    • Pros: Can play OF, be a good bench bat and a good teammate
    • Cons: I can't get over 2004 ALCS. May want to work for the Diamondbacks in a baseball operations role according to MLB.com.
    Kevin Millar:
    • Pros: Used to booing in New York so that shouldn't affect him
    • Cons: New York hates this "Cowboy Up" idiot
    Gary Sheffield:
    • Pros: Right-handed power who can handle New York
    • Cons: Been there, done that. The power is mostly gone and Sheffield is a loss in the field
    So who do I think the Yankees will pick?
    I think either Damon or Johnson will be on the team, though I wouldn't rule out Hairston or Nady because of their past Yankee affiliation. What about you? Who would you like the Yankees to sign?

    4 comments:

    1. well if i was Damon i would have personally called the Yankees after the Vazquez deal and said 'just offer me whatever you think is fair and i'll take it. i want to be back on this team." but thats me. i hope Damon will bring his price down but i doubt it. i dont know how Nady can be asking for that much money coming off surgey but he'd be my next choice after Damon. after that i'd take Hairston or Johnson

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    2. Damon's biggest problem right now seems to be that he has Scott Boras as an agent. I don't think Boras will let him take a bad deal for his client. I think he'd rather wait and see what happens.

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    3. I don't buy for one second that the Yankees truly cannot expand their payroll over $200M. I don't think it's a bad idea to pay Damon $10M in 2010. No incentive/option thing for 2011. He just hits the market again, one year older and $10 million richer. Abreu settled for $5M last year at this juncture, Damon should jump at $10M, and quite frankly, the Yankees should, too. I hate his defense as much as the next guy, but he hits home runs and he gives you a 9th HR threat in a HR hitter's ballpark. He will hit 20 more home runs in 2010 than will Gardner, and if even one is a walk-off, it will feel like money well spent.
      Gardy belongs in Petco - not YS. I actually really like the guy a lot. I think he could be a useful CF for the Padres, but not for the Yankees.

      -@markelderallen

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