Hot Stove Coal: Nick Johnson is a Weapon Against Lefites Too

Over lunch today I was reading through Steven Goldman's Pinstriped Bible as he was going "to the mats with reader comments". Goldman was talking about the Yankees left-field platoon options and said this:

The defensive issue may not even matter if the Yankees are willing to bench Nick Johnson against some southpaws—your Gomes or Thames takes over at DH and Gardner plays defense.

That sentence didn't do well for my lunch. Now I'm a big fan of Goldman but I've disagreed with him at times in the past. But generally I find his writing to be of my liking and I agree with him most of the time (translation: he's a smart dude). This, though, bothers me.

The Yankees should never sit Johnson against a southpaw because he's left-handed. Ever. Now Johnson will not DH every day. A-Rod will need to DH at least once a week. Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Mark Texeira and others may need the DH spot from time-to-time as well. So Johnson will not be playing 162 games, even if healthy.

But the games he doesn't play should not be replaced by Johnny Gomes or Marcus Thames or really anyone. Why? Because Nick Johnson is really good against lefties. Nick Johnson's career slashes against righties are .266/.394/.450. Against lefites they look even better .292/.424/.438. If you take out intentional walks, his BB/KK ratio is actually (slightly) better against lefties as well.

And if you look at the seasons in which Johnson's logged at least 150 PAs vs. lefties, it opens the argument up even more. In 2005, 2006 and 2009, Johnson had at least 150 PA vs. lefties and in each of those three seasons he ranked in the top 6 in the league in OBP vs. lefties. In those three seasons, only one other lefty (Travis Hafner in 2006) even ranked in the top 9 in OBP vs. lefties.

Those three years happen to be the only ones where Johnson logged over 450 PA, but it's not the only time he's had success getting on base vs. lefties. As the below graph from FanGraphs shows, he's been pretty proficient at hitting both lefties and righties (with 2008 being the one big outlier in my argument, but he only played in 38 games--a small sample size).

Since OBP isn't all of it, let's look at the OPS differences those 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007. Johnson's OPS was 206 points higher against lefties in 2004, 40 points higher in 2005, and 74 points higher in 2009. In 2006 in was 24 points lower, but he managed a very nice .938 OPS vs. lefties regardless*. But since wOBA has replaced OPS in my way of thinking, let's look at that split on FanGraphs:

*Side Note: Let's be honest: there aren't many "tough lefties" to worry about Yankee hitters facing. Jon Lester is the big one and Cliff Lee they may see once or twice. Mark Buehrle is 1-6, with a 6.43 ERA against the Yankees and his teammate, John Danks, has a 6.06 ERA. CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte are going to be in Pinstripes. So who are they so worried about facing?

As you can see from this graph, Johnson has been at least equally as good, if not a better hitter vs. lefties. But the point is that Johnson is a really good hitter no matter whoever he faces. Bill James projects for Johnson in 2010 to put up slashes of .277/.414/.434 and a wOBA of .375. Johnny Gomes has only once put up a wOBA of more than that amount (.385 in 2005). Marcus Thames has never done that. In fact, you can see the three players' wOBA comparisons throughout their careers in the next FanGraphs graph (with the blue line representing league average):

Now I know this is an overall wOBA number (you can't compare the split numbers, unfortunately) and I know Goldman is not saying that Gomes or Thames should be DH'ing vs. righties, but the point is that it makes no sense to sit Nick Johnson vs. lefties just so you can get a righty at DH and put Brett Gardner in the OF. The point of having a right-handed caddy for Gardner (or Curtis Granderson) would be to sit Gardner/Granderson vs. lefties, not play them and sit someone else who actually can hit lefties.

The Yankees would be much better off putting Gardner/Granderson in LF/CF and playing Johnson. Or, if they decide to employ the platoon in left (which is fine), they just need to make sure that doesn't effect Johnson. I know Johnson has had injury problems throughout his career, but if he's healthy, he should be in the lineup almost every day, whether a righty or lefty is pitching.