Stretch Drive Previews: The AL Central

We started in the AL East and now we head to the American League Central for our Stretch Drive Previews series. This is a division which has had two pennant winner in the past dozen years (the 2005 White Sox and the 2006 Tigers)  and has only captured the Wild Card once (2006 when Detroit and Minnesota both made it). An AL Central playoff team has played the AL East in the playoffs each of the last 7 years, advancing only in 2005 and 2006. With that in mind, let's take a look at the September outlooks for the AL Central teams (% slashes per team are division/wild card/overall playoffs):

Rk	Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	Strk	R	RA	Rdiff	pythWL	Home	Road	1Run	≥.500	<.500	last10	last20	last30
1	MIN	76	56	.576	---	W 1	4.8	4.0	0.8	77-55	41-22	35-34	24-20	28-27	48-29	5-5	13-7	20-10
2	CHW	72	60	.545	4.0	W 2	4.8	4.2	0.6	74-58	38-27	34-33	21-21	22-29	50-31	6-4	9-11	14-16
3	DET	65	67	.492	11.0	L 1	4.5	4.6	-0.1	65-67	43-25	22-42	14-20	26-40	39-27	6-4	11-9	13-17
4	KCR	56	76	.424	20.0	W 1	4.1	5.3	-1.2	51-81	30-34	26-42	25-25	28-44	28-32	4-6	9-11	14-16
5	CLE	53	79	.402	23.0	L 3	4.0	4.9	-0.9	54-78	29-38	24-41	19-17	31-45	22-34	3-7	6-14	11-19
	Avg	64	67	.488			4.4	4.6		64-67	36-29	28-38	20-20	27-37	37-30	4-5	9-10	14-15

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/1/2010.

Minnesota Twins (85.9% / 0.2% / 86.1% chance of making the playoffs according to coolstandings.com, 89.4% / 0.1% / 89.6% chances according to Baseball Prospectus, and 86.6% / <.1% / 86.7% according to PECOTA)

Will the addition of Manny Ramirez make a difference in this race? (CBC)

Last year Minnesota tracked down Detroit at the very end of the season to stage one of the greatest end-of-season comebacks in the Wild Card era. This year, it's Minnesota who tries not to collapse and give up their AL Central lead. While the Red Sox, Phillies and others have been praised for their play despite injuries, the Twins may be even more reslient. They lost All-Star closer Joe Nathan before the season even started and have had 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau for only 81 games (though he amazingly still is tied for the team lead in HR). And yet they're cruising right along in the AL Central. Part of that certainly has to do with a starting pitching staff anchored by Carl Pavano (15-10, 3.52 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.94 xFIP) and Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.41 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 3.01 xFIP, 9.72 K/9) and really good defense. But a lot of credit has to go to the depth of the lineup which has forged ahead and put together the 3rd highest wOBA and Runs Above Average (according to FanGraphs) in the majors behind only the Yankees and Red Sox. This is impressive in what has been a pitching-friendly, home-run-suppressing Target Field (where they play Texas, Oakland, and Toronto--their three out-of-division opponents the rest of the way).

Read more>>

Is There a Free Agent Market For Cliff Lee?

One of the biggest off-season moves of this past winter was the Seattle Mariners acquisition of Cliff Lee from the Philadelphia Phillies. With one year left on his contract, Lee was deemed expendable by a Philadelphia team that didn’t think they could resign him once his contract was up. The Mariners had dreams of pairing Felix Hernandez and Lee together for one season and seeing what they could do in the spacious confines of Safeco Field.

Well, it may only be one year that they have together. Lee’s agent, Darek Braunecker, told ESPN’s Buster Olney that Lee will be testing the free agent waters in five months. With Josh Beckett locked up, Brandon Webb injured and Javier Vazquez having a rough go of it in the Bronx, Lee is definitely the cream of the free agent pitching crop.

But what type of market awaits Lee? Which teams will be involved in the bidding? While 5 years ago, Cliff Lee would be looking at a huge contract deal, in 2010 with a depressed economy, sagging attendance in some parks, and teams looking to be more fiscally responsible, it seems like Lee’s prospects are drying up in certain areas. So will Lee get a CC Sabathia-type contract or will he be left disappointed after the off-season is over? Let’s take a look at the possibilities (with thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts on the salaries):

Seattle Mariners: The Mariners traded away some of their best prospects to get Cliff Lee so it would make sense they would keep him, right? Well some of thought behind acquiring Lee was that they would keep him for a year and try to recoup the prospect loss in draft pick compensation for Lee signing elsewhere (Lee should be a Type A free agent). And since the Mariners are yet to approach Lee about a contract, that draft pick grab may be the path they are going to head down. If Lee has a huge season in Seattle, though, the Mariners will have a lot of incentive to resign him. If the team struggles, however, they may have to trade him and The News Tribune says they should think about doing that now, rather than later. The Seattle P-I says that the Mariners haven't really been showing much love Lee's way (picture to the right from that article).

Read more>>

A Few Interesting Transactions

Can you name the last Yankee pitcher to win a playoff game? Anyone? Phillip Hughes Game 3 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians. He now goes by Phil Hughes but the Yankees announced today that he will be heading back to the bullpen for the first time since that game. It ends up that was probably one of Phil Hughes' best performances in the major leagues: 3.2 no runs, no walks, 4 Ks in relief of Roger Clemens (Joba Chamberlain also gave up a run as a reliever, perish the thought).

The reason Phil Hughes is heading to the bullpen is the Yankees want Chien-Ming Wang to start (which he'll do tomorrow in place of CC). The impetus for the move was talked about by Peter Abraham earlier the day, and goes that Wang, if his ball is sinking, is still better than Phil Hughes--at this point. Hughes will stay in the bullpen on the team for a while, but may need to head back down to the minors at some point to stretch himself out if not opportunity exists for him to rejoing the rotation in the Bronx. River Ave Blues seems to confirm this via a Brian Cashman interview on the Michael Kay Show (they still allow him to do that?): if Wang pitches well and Bruney and Marte return, Hughes will go to the minors in two weeks. If Wang pitches poorly or Pettitte is more injured than he's letting on, then Hughes will stay and start.

The Yankees also stratched Mark Teixeira who hurt himself enacting revenge on a double play breakup last night. Let's hope it's nothing more than a night's injury because, otherwise, it's not really a great play. You want guys to show passion, but play smart as well (ie--don't be like Kevin Brown who once punched a brick wall with his pitching hand).

Other moves:
-Supposedly the Atlanta Braves release Tom Glavine to save a little bit of money according to Ken Rosenthal. Both Shysterball and I are both equally surprised. If it really is for the money, shame on Atlanta.

-Speaking of Atlanta, they went and got themselves an outfielder (finally!). It's a surprise name, though--Nate McLouth. I don't think this is what he had in mind when he signed an extension to stay there. The Pirates GM tries to explain but it seems like a case of the Pirates just continuing to want to stockpile prospects in hopes of getting out of their losing ways. I wouldn't fault McLouth for being peaved, though.

-MLBTradeRumors goes over the trades so far this season. The biggest name so far is Gwynn...Gwynn Jr. In one of the most awesome things to come to the blog world, Paul DePodesta explains why the Padres made the trade. I mean how cool is that? You always want to know what teams were thinking when they made deals and this is how you can find out.

-Lastly, another one of those early-season trades got this review from Jon Heyman: "New Mets pickup Lance Broadway, a former first-rounder with a great New York name, is throwing only 86-88 mph. Judging by recent activity, White Sox GM Ken Williams seems willing to purge their system of the picks of the previous scouting director."

The Last Time the Yankees Were In 1st This Late In the Season Was...

...2006

Wow.

It's been a long time. Let's hope they can stay here. They now have three games against the second-worst team in the American League, the Cleveland Indians (despite having won three straight). Keep the momentum alive, boys!

Just asking...Wang to the Pen?

Just asking...are all those "Joba-to-the-'pen" folks advocating "Wang-to-the-'pen" now?

Just asking...is Girardi making Chien-Ming Wang into his setup man with Brian Bruney out?

Just asking...when is it a good idea to take a perennial 19-game winner and waste him away in blowout games?

Just asking...what are Angel Berroa and Jose Veras still doing on this team (especially now with NO backup outfielders)?

Just asking...why is AJ Burnett so inconsistent?

Just asking...why do some Yankee broadcasts not have a play-by-play guy? I actually really like Flaherty and Singleton but neither guy is a play-by-play and they've been stuck in a booth together in Texas for 3 games

Just asking...do you see what speed does for a team? Gardner dropping down a bunt proved to be a big play in blowing this game wide open

Just asking...can the Yankees keep up this momentum? We'll see as they head to Cleveland tomorrow...

Who Will Make the Hall Of Fame? AL Central Edition

After the Joe Torre book and the A-Rod thing, let's get onto happier baseball topics. So last month I went through the AL East and dissected who will make the Hall of Fame. I put the guys into four groups. To refresh your memory: The first group is sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famers, guys who, if they retired tomorrow, would make the Hall of Fame. The second are probable Hall of Famers, guys who should make it as long as they continue along their path or guys who may not make it the first ballot, but will be in eventually. The third are guys that are just short of the Hall of Fame but could get in if they have some big years. The fourth are guys who are really young, but seem like they could be on the Hall of Fame path.

I think the one change I would make from the previous list was to put A-Rod in the second category now. Although I think that some people will never vote for him for the Hall of Fame now, I think that eventually his numbers and the time that will pass will allow him entry.

So on to the AL Central:

Detroit Tigers

Category 1

No one

Category 2

Miguel Cabrera. The stats are quite amazing. This guy has exactly 175 home runs and 650 RBIs at age 25. His career OPS+ is 140. He had a horrible start to last year, couldn't find a position, was called a bust and hit 37 homers (league leading) and drove in 127 runs, while leading the league in total bases...not too shabby for a bad year. Baseball Reference does similar batters through age 25. There are some great names up there like Hank Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Vlad Guerrero and Al Kaline. But there are two HUGE cautionary tales: Andruw Jones and Ruben Sierra. If Cabrera can stay in shape (which he was not at the beginning of last season) and continue to rake, he may put up some unbelievable numbers someday. The good news for him is that he's an actual great hitter as well as being a great slugger.

Category 3
None. But Gary Sheffield, if he was deemed clean, would have been here. If he hits 23 home runs this year, he'll pass guys like Ernie Banks and Ted Williams and be 18th on the all time list. Let's review, once again the top 25 home run hitters (we'll put a * next to any guy who played in the past 11 years...no real reason for the * but we'll use that): Barry Bonds*, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr.*, Sammy Sosa*, Frank Robinson, Mark McGwire*, Harmon Killebrew, Rafael Palmeiro*, Reggie Jackson, Alex Rodriguez*, Mike Schmidt, Jim Thome*, Mickey Mantle, Jimmie Foxx, Manny Ramirez*, Willie McCovey, Frank Thomas*, Ted Williams, Ernie Banks, Eddie Mathews, Mel Ott, Eddie Murray, Gary Sheffield*. So you're telling me we're going to keep 10 out of the top 25 home run hitters out of a museum, the Hall of Frame, because they played in this era? I'm not saying Sheffield should be in, or 500 home runs should be the barometer anymore (or that guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. who never were accused of anything would be held out)...but it's a little ridic.

Category 4
Justin Verlander. I really don't think he'll make it...but who knows. He regressed a lot last season and maybe some of his weaknesses began to shine through. How is this for you? He wins the Rookie of the Year in 2006 with an ERA_ that is 7th in the league. Then in 2007 he goes 18-6, comes in 5th in the Cy Young voting, throws a no hitter, and strikes out almost a batter per inning...except the same year he also allows almost a hit an inning and leads the league in wild pitches and hits batsmen. That leads him to 2008 where he led the league in losses. So needless to say, he may be going in the wrong direction. But if he can right the ship, with a good team and a good pitcher's park behind him, he could make an interesting case for himself down the road.

Chicago White Sox

Category 1

No one

Category 2
Jim Thome. This will be an interesting one. His stats are in the top 10 of every offensive category during the so-called steroids era...yet Jim Thome's name never showed up on a Mitchell Report or BALCO investigation or government investigation. Does that mean he was/is clean? Nope. Could his name be one of the 103 left on that list? Yup. If it isn't, does that make him a lock for the Hall? I don't think so. But if he has another 59 home runs (he hit 111 in the last three seasons), he'll get 600 home runs. The only guys on that list are Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey, Jr., Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. According to Grey and Black Ink, he's not there, but according to the other two monitors, he's in. I'll leave this one up to the voters to figure out.

Category 3, Category 4
None that I can see.

Minnesota Twins
Category 1
No one

Category 2

Joe Mauer. I debated which category he fit into. But a catcher with two batting titles before he turns 26? I think that guy fits into Category 2. Fangraphs just loves this guy and all the predictions seem to indicate he'll be in the running for more batting titles as the years go on. In those two batting title years, Justin Morneau came in first and second in the MVP voting. That is not a coincidence. Fangraphs estimates that he's been worth over 200 value runs, almost 20 value wins, and over $77 million in just over 4 season in the bigs. Similar batters through Age 25 include guys like Bill Dickey, Tony Lazzeri, Derek Jeter and Rod Carew (though Robinson Cano's name is on the top of the list...so I hope they both follow the same Hall of Fame path). If he can keep this current progression, especially as a catcher, he should find himself in the Hall. And how can you deny a guy whose last name is one letter off from being Bauer?

Category 3
Justin Morneau. The guy has won an MVP and came in second in another voting. The overall stats aren't tremendous, but that has a lot to do with not having a lot around him besides Joe Mauer. He hit less home runs last season (although hit a lot more doubles), but still finished second in the MVP voting because he hit .300/.374/.499 and was in the top 3 in RBIs, Adjusted Batting Runs and Batting Wins. He needs to keep on mashing and hope to pick up a few more MVP awards if he hopes to represent Canada in the Hall of Fame.

Category 4
No one as of now...though guys like Liriano could find themselves back in this discussion.

Cleveland Indians

Category 1, Category 2, Category 3

No one

Category 4

Grady Sizemore. It seems Peter Gammons has been singing this guy's praises from the second he stepped onto a baseball diamond. Sizemore will only be 26 this season and many others are expecting a big breakout, MVP number season from him including Bill James. His Fangraphs numbers look even better than Mauer's. In the same 4+ years, he has over 270 value runs, almost 27 value wins and has been worth $105.1 million. Even factoring in positional differences, Grady Sizemore may actually be a better player than Joe Mauer. If Sizemore breaks out this year, he jumps up to Category 2. If he has two mediocre seasons, he falls off the list completely. Amazingly, the most similar batter through age 25 is Barry Bonds. We'll see what a guy who was so similar through those years does in the next 15 without steroids.

Kansas City Royals

Category 1, Category 2, Category 3

No one. It's amazing in this whole division we've had zero category ones...

Category 4

Joakim Soria. He's young. And we don't know if he'll be a starter or closer. But he was a damn good Rule V draft pickup and he had 42 saves last year at the ripe old age of 24. The most similar pitcher through that same age (mad props to baseball-reference.com for an amazing site, once again) is Bruce Sutter and--like it or not--he's a Hall of Famer. Not saying Soria will be there. But he certainly is young and has a chance.

Agree? Disagree? Did I miss someone? Let me know!