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| The hefty lefty will try to take Game 1 for the Yanks (MSNBC) |
Elissa: I foresee the Yankees losing only two games. Lee has been so dominant in the postseason. I am of the firm belief that if Cliff Lee wants to win the game, he's going to win the game. Poor Phil Hughes will just have to take one for the team with that loss. Luckily, the Yankees will probably only have to face Lee once in the ALCS (Girardi should send Tampa a nice fruit basket or something). On the flip side, Burnett has been horrendous. Without a day off between games 4 and 5 the Yankees will have to start Burnett and accept the fact that they will probably lose that game. I don't see the Rangers winning anything else. With Pettitte, CC, and Hughes on the mound, the Yankees offense will ensure another appearance in the World Series (I'm sure Yankees fans everywhere are relieved. It's been a whole year since you've seen your team in the World Series - congratulations). Yankees in 6 - Series MVP: CC Sabathia
Sarah: Too many cheesesteaks (and days off) for CC Sabathia is going to do the Yankees in and the Rangers are going to win. It may be a fluke win, but without Sabathia winning, the Yankees will be in trouble against Cliff Lee. Rangers in 7 - Series MVP: Cliff Lee
Ben P: The Yankees lineup is built perfectly for the playoffs. Besides for Lee the Rangers staff doesn't have anyone that can contend. Yankees in 6 - Series MVP: CC Sabathia
Jay: The Yankees' starting rotation is perfectly set up for this series. I think the Yankees will win Games 1 and 2 behind CC (presumably against Wilson) and Andy Pettitte (presumably against Lewis). Cliff Lee will deliver another magical performance to take Game 3. (My hope/expectation is that the Yankees will use AJ Burnett in that game, since they're probably not going to beat Lee anyway.) Phil Hughes will be effective enough once again to win Game 4. CC will come back on full rest to clinch the series in Game 5. Josh Hamilton's postseason struggles will continue as his ribs are secretly still bothering him. Mariano Rivera will once again not give up a run. Joba will finally have a moment, and he'll make the most of it. Alex Rodriguez will bust out in a big way to win MVP. He's due. Yankees in 5 - Series MVP: Alex Rodriguez
Ben W: Key to this series is for the Yankees to beat the non-Cliff Lee starting pitchers and take their losses against Lee. Fortunately for the Yankees, Ron Washington decided to push Cliff Lee to the limit in Game 5 of the ALDS, which means you probably won't see him until either game 2, in which he would pitch on short rest, or game 3. Seeing how he just pitched a complete game on Tuesday, I would imagine that Ron Washington would want to make the most of his only guarantee start so let's count on him pitching in game 3. The earliest you would see him again is game 6. The Yankee bats are getting hot, which usually is bad for pitchers the likes of Tommy Hunter and Colby Lewis. The Yankees pitchers need to stay hot and they need better performances out of CC in this series, especially if they may go to AJ Burnett. The Yankees need to pay special attention the hot bat of Ian Kinsler and try to make play clean baseball, as it was the sloppy play of the Rays more than anything that lost them the series. Yankees in 6 - Series MVP: CC Sabathia
Ari: They are just set up perfectly. CC struggles to open but they pull out a win. I'll take Andy for a W in game 2 as well, but agree with Jay that Lee will not be defeated in game 3. I think this series gets tied up in game 4 with an awful Burnett performance. Don't see Lee starting game 5 - I think he will throw a long one in game 3 and will instead start game 6 (especially with the series tied). I see the Yanks winning game 5 behind CC and finally beating Lee in game 6 for the series. Yankees in 6 - Series MVP: CC Sabathia
My Opinion: On one hand, I like the Rangers team that has played the Yankees well this season (and got to Mo), has many weapons, is aggressive and has Cliff Lee as it's hammer available for a Game 7. On the other hand, I see Nelson Cruz getting thrown out at third trying to be too aggressive (which easily could have happened in the ALDS), the fact that the Yankees also got to Neftali Feliz, the fact that CC Sabathia is lining up with CJ Wilson, and the fact that it took the Rangers three games (including two at home) to close out the Rays last series and I see an opportunity here for the Yankees. I think the Yankees getting an advanced look at guys like Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, and 2010 Yankee-killer Nelson Cruz will be helpful. I also see a huge opportunity because of Cliff Lee not going until Game 3. That would probably mean he wouldn't come back until a possible Game 7 for the Rangers since he's never thrown on three days rest. Never. In 9 seasons. He didn't last year when the Phillies went on their World Series run and he was the only one who seemed to be able to solve the Yankees. Could it be different this year with his free agency looming? Possibly, but I doubt it and the results may not look as good. If he doesn't go in Game 6, the Rangers will. Yankees in 6 - Series MVP: Derek Jeter
So what do you think? Will the Yankees take it or will the Rangers have enough to finally beat the Yankees in a postseason series? Let us know in the comments below
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I've heard a lot of people talk about the idea of starting AJ Burnett against Cliff Lee, with the idea being that they won't beat Lee so why waste a good pitcher on that game. This idea makes so little sense for so many reasons.
ReplyDelete1-If you start Burnett in game 3, that would line him up to pitch AGAIN in the series in game 7. Maybe I'm crazy, but he's not exactly my choice for a game 7.
2-Why is everyone assuming that the Yankees will automatically lose to Cliff Lee? He's been phenomenal postseason pitcher for the past two years but he's not untouchable. In the World Series last year, he gave up five runs in game 5. The only reason they lost was because a certain Yankee pitcher gave up a ton of early runs early in that game. I wonder who that could have been...
3-Usually isn't the philosophy that you want to match up good pitchers against good pitchers in order to win a game (which is the goal, right)?
Basically, throwing AJ Burnett out there to pitch against Cliff Lee for the aforementioned reason sends a message to the Rangers that the Yankees are prepared to lose a game, which is never the message you want to send to your opponent and certainly not the message you want to send to your team.
Ben, I agree with you on all three points. Sorry, Jay, but I can't get around that idea. You NEVER "concede" a playoff game. You start your best available guy (Pettitte) and line him up again for Game 7 so you have the best chance possible if it comes to that.
ReplyDeleteAnd the premise that the Yankees are automatically going to lose because of Burnett is bogus as well. Burnett actually pitched against Texas three times this year and gave his team a good chance to win in 2 of the 3, throwing 7 innings in both of those games. Do I have confidence in him to win? Heck no. But it's a 50/50 shot Good AJ will show up--and as Ben said: you do NOT want to line him up for Game 7.
And Cliff Lee started three games against the Yankees this season and his team won 2 of them as well. So let's not forfeit that game quite yet.
I hear what you guys are saying. And you're not necessarily wrong -- Girardi must agree with you because he's got Pettitte lined up against Lee in Game 3. But Andrew, your reasoning works against you to some degree.
ReplyDeleteWould they really be conceding Game 4 with AJ on the mount? Burnett's 2010 numbers against Texas: 3 starts, 1-0, 2.50 ERA, 17 K, 7 BB, 1.27 WHIP.
This means Burnett can hang with Texas, which means that starting him vs. Cliff Lee is not conceding defeat. And since (as Ben mentioned) that the Yankees scored 5 runs off Lee in last year's World Series, heck, the Yanks might even win Game 4 with AJ pitching.
And what about Game 7? Pettitte's numbers against Texas this year: 1 start, 1-0, 2.25 ERA, 4 K, 3 BB, .88 WHIP. In other words, slightly better (and with a smaller sample size) than AJ's numbers against Texas. So aside from the trust-and-experience factor, the matchup isn't that different. Also -- and perhaps most importantly -- by having Pettitte pitch BEFORE Game 7, you increase the likelihood that the Yankees win the series in 6 games or less...thereby preventing a second Cliff Lee matchup altogether.
It's a moot point now, since we know what Girardi is going to throw out there, but I don't think this idea was patently ridiculous. It was, at the very least, worthy of serious discussion, in light of AJ's strong numbers against the Rangers this year.
I think the point is you want your best chance of winning each game and that means starting Pettitte over Burnett in Game 3. Burnett has a chance to be great, but Pettitte is much more likely to keep the Yankees in the game. It's not "ridiculous" but it's not a good idea either.
ReplyDeleteThe bigger point in all this is that you rather have Andy Pettitte potentially go twice against Cliff Lee than A.J. Burnett going twice against anyone
The premise of the original argument was that AJ Burnett gives them the a lesser chance to win and that since it's likely the Yankees will lose to Cliff Lee, then why should they waste a better starting pitcher.
ReplyDeleteIf he supposedly pitches well against Texas, as his numbers would indicate that he did this year, then why does it even matter which game he starts? Going with the premise that he could pitch well eliminates the need to make the original argument.
Deciding when Burnett should pitch should not depend on who he is pitching against. The only deciding factor should be the where the series stands stands after game 3. 3-0 lead and he's out there for sure. 2-1 lead and it's 50/50, because being up 3-1 (one game for advancing) vs being tied at 2-2 (basically turning it into a five game series) is huge. If the series is 1-2 or 3-0 (which I highly doubt will happen), CC gets the ball on short rest.
Just listening to Mike Francesa. He agrees with the situations in which the Yankees would go back to CC on short rest. However, he believes that if he doesn't pitch game 4 he doesn't start at all and the rest of the rotation follows on short rest.
ReplyDeleteUnless they are up 3-1, he's probably correct.
The problem there is there isn't that off day between games 4 and 5 and I don't think you can throw Hughes and Pettitte on short rest. I don't mind pitching Sabathia on short rest but Hughes (too young) and Pettitte (too old) don't seem suited for it at this point
ReplyDeleteWould you start Burnett with the series tied 2-2 or do you just outright commit to him in game 4.
ReplyDeleteLet me clarify my last statement...say you decided to go with CC in game 4 and after game 4 the series is tied at 2-2. Would you trust Burnett in game 5?
ReplyDeleteIt's because of this situation that you may just need to outright commit to him to pitch in game 4.
Here's the one situation I do not pitch A.J. Burnett in Game 4: if the Yankees are down 3-0 and Game 1 wasn't lost because CC was shelled. Otherwise, I think you need to stick to that plan. Call me crazy, but I don't think it's a good idea to be flip-flopping on starters mid-series. Get all the ducks lined up and go with it
ReplyDelete