I think most of this misconception lies in the fact that OBP wasn't exactly a mainstream topic before 2003 when Michael Lewis' Moneyball hit the scene. The truth is that teams were thinking about this before that time, but like good organizations do, they decided not to share that trade secret with others. If you take a look at those Yankee teams, you remember Paul O'Neill's warrior-like ABs, but you forget how they ended many times: with him jogging to first base. Using FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference (and a 50 PA minimum), here was what those Yankee teams looked like:
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| "The Warror" did more than just foul off pitches (Yankee Yapping) |
1995
I add this one in just to show when the change occurred. Obviously, this was not a Torre team (Buck Showalter ran the show), but some of the seeds of Torre teams were planted. The 1995 Yankee team put up a .357 OBP which was good for 2nd in the American League. But the OBP was pretty empty of power. Although they had 280 doubles (2nd in the AL), they had only 122 HR (12th out of 14). Paul O'Neill had 22, Bernie Williams 18, Mike Stanley 18...and no one else had more than 7. The starting infield of Don Mattingly, Pat Kelly, Tony Fernandez, and Wade Boggs accumulated 21 combined. While Paul O'Neill (.387 OBP, .388 wOBA), Bernie Williams (.392 OBP, .385 wOBA), and Wade Boggs (.412 OBP, .373 wOBA) carried the offense, Dion James (.317 wOBA), Luis Polonia (.304), Tony Fernandez (.296), and Pat Kelly (.293) all were black holes. The team made the playoffs as the first American League Wild Card but they were disposed of in a tough 5-game loss in the American League Division Series to the Seattle Mariners.
1996
In 1996, the Yankees got rid of most of the dead weight from the 1995 lineup. They replaced Dion James with Tim Raines (.383 OBP/.377 wOBA), Luis Polonia with Ruben Rivera (.381/.368), Tony Fernandez with Derek Jeter (.370/.353), and Pat Kelly with Mariano Duncan (.352/.364). The team OBP ticked up to .360 and the hitting improved even further when they swapped Ruben Sierra for Cecil Fielder mid-season. Paul O'Neill continued to be a force in the Yankees lineup, walking 15.5% of the time and putting up a .411 OBP. The team gave way too many PAs (219) to Andy Fox (probably the worst Yankee hitter of the past 20 years that they've given that many PAs to) and Gerald Williams was never the answer in left, but this team was able to win the World Series because of those improvements it made.
1997
Joe Girardi was a black hole of offense (Jorge Posada was still in a backup role), but otherwise, this Yankees team could really hit. The .287/.362/.436 team line was excellent led by Bernie Williams (.407 wOBA), Tino Martinez (44 HR), and Paul O'Neill (63 XBH). Chad Curtis was a really valuable bench bat (.363 wOBA, 12 HR) and Mike Stanley was reacquired from the Red Sox at the trade deadline and helped to bolster the lineup (.370 wOBA). This team faltered in the ALDS (mostly due to a starting pitching staff that wasn't as good as the other years).
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| Scott Brosius and the 1998 Yanks truly were "The Best" (SI) |
1998
Now this team could hit. A .288/.364/.460 line for the offense told only part of the story. They hit 207 HR (4th in the AL) including 10 players who hit at least 10. Bernie Williams won a batting title and put up a .422 OBP and .423 wOBA to lead all Yankee regulars. Derek Jeter enjoyed his first great season and Chuck Knoblauch (who was only about average at getting on base that year in the regular season) combined with him to make a solid double play combo and leadoff team. O'Neill continued to rake, Jorge Posada took over as the top catcher, Scott Brosius hit .300 (with a .371 OBP) from the #9 spot, Darryl Strawberry and Chili Davis made up a really good DH combination, Homer Bush put up at .421 OBP off the bench, and Shane Spencer came out of no place to hit .373/.411/.910 with 10 HR and 27 RBI in 73 PA at the end of the season. Luis Sojo (.233 wOBA) got a few too many PAs as a utility infielder, but otherwise, this team was great at finding ABs for its best players.
1999
Shane Spencer lost all of his 1998 magic, Joe Girardi continued to not hit and Scott Brosius fell back to earth, but this Yankee team had a .366 OBP. Chuck Knoblauch had his best offensive season for the Yankees (.380 wOBA--though the yips started on defense). Derek Jeter has his best offensive season walking a career-high 12.3% of the time and hitting .349/.438/.552 with a .428 wOBA, 24 HR, and 102 RBI. Bernie Williams walked 100 times on his way to a .435 OBP. Although Paul O'Neill started to tail off a bit in '99, Chad Crutis (.398 OBP) and Darryl Strawberry (.500 OBP in 66 PA) were great off the bench. Probably the least remembered of the championship teams, this Yankees team absolutely dominated in the playoffs losing only one game (a Pedro Martinez start in the ALCS vs. Boston).
2000
This was not a great offensive team though they greatly improved as the season went along. Tino Martinez struggled mightly (9.1 runs below average), Chuck Knoblauch let his fielding issues carry over to his bat leading to more at bats for Luis Sojo and Jose Vizcaino (who combined were 12.2 runs below average), and Scott Brosius was awful (20.8 runs below average). Actually other than Jorge Posada (.404 wOBA, 28 HR), Bernie Williams (.403 wOBA, 30 HR) and Derek Jeter (.393 wOBA, 15 HR), the Yankee didn't have a starter who truly put up an above average wOBA until the end of June. Then they traded for David Justice (.414 wOBA, 20 HR) and Glenallen Hill (.457 wOBA, 16 HR--with 12 HR and .429/.459/1.000 coming during his first 21 games with the Yankees--and a .735 SLG). Posada had his first huge offensive season including a career-high BB% of 17.1%.
2001
The 2001 Yankees had only 6 above league average hitters: Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada, Paul O'Neill and Scott Brosius. O'Neill and Brosius hardly made the cut. David Justice, Shane Spencer, Alfonso Soriano, Chuck Knoblauch, Nick Johnson, Enrique Wilson, Clay Bellinger and Todd Greene all got significant plate appearances without significant results. The Yankees would replace Martinez, Brosius, Knoblauch, O'Neill and Justice after this season, totally overhauling the team of the last few years.
2009
Last fast forward to last season. After a few seasons of early post-season exits and then one post-season-less October, the Yankees went out and got Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher to add to their offense (as well as a few pitching additions as well). Tex had a big first season in the Bronx after a slow April with a .402 wOBA, 39 HR and 122 RBI and Swish walked 16% of the time and put up a .375 wOBA and 29 HR. Alex Rodriguez (.286/.402/.532, .405 wOBA, 30 HR, and 100 RBI) provided him protection and Derek Jeter had an MVP-caliber season (.334/.406/.465 and a .390 wOBA atop the lineup) while soon-to-be-departed Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui both enjoyed great sendoffs in the New Yankee Stadium. The Yankees .362 OBP led the league and the only negative players to get real playing time were Cody Ransom (-4.6 runs), Francisco Cervelli (-3.8 runs) and Jose Molina (-8.9 runs). Centerfield was the one position the Yankees didn't have superior hitting at and even then they had Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera be at least league average.
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| A-Rod and the 2010 Yankees will try to keep up the winning way (NYT) |
2010
This year's Yankees have a much lower OBP (.350) that still ranks first in the American League. Robinson Cano (.325/.381/.564 with a .398 wOBA) has had a breakout season to lead the way, but Nick Swisher (.394 wOBA, 22 HR) and Brett Gardner (.388 OBP and 30 SB) have had great seasons as well. Mark Teixeira (.374 wOBA) now lead the Yankees with 23 HR after a slow start and Marcus Thames (.400 OBP, .371 wOBA) has been a great addition. Derek Jeter and A-Rod are suffering from down seasons. The Yankees have replaced Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui with Curtis Granderson and a myriad of DHs which hasn't produced the results they wanted, but hasn't killed the offense either. The Yankees have only given negative run PAs to 4 hitters (Francisco Cervelli, Randy Winn, Kevin Russo, and Ramiro Pena) and two of them are no longer with the Major League squad (Winn was released and Russo is in Triple-A). The 2010 Yankees need A-Rod (.347 wOBA) and Jeter (.328 wOBA) to turn it up in the final months, for Jorge Posada (.368 wOBA) to stay healthy, and for new additions Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns to produce when in the lineup.
Of course, the late 90s Yankee teams didn't win just because of hitting (they had great starting staffs and a great closer), but the point of this post was to show that hitting was a big part of it. The 2009 squad figured out how to get back to those roots, but the 2010 squad seems to figuring out exactly where they fit in this. The 2001 Yankees, with too many holes in the lineup, would be exploited in the World Series by Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. The hope for the 2010 Yankees is that they can learn from those mistakes of the past and continue to find consistent hitting so they don't get stalled in the playoffs. The point of this post originally was to show that while they may have been seen as a nitty, gritty, foul-'em-off team, they were also really efficient at getting on base and producing runs with an offense that would propel them to 4 World Series wins in 5 years.
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Great analysis, Andrew. I do think that there's a cause-and-effect relationship here. A nitty gritty mindset at the plate leads to a foul-'em-off attitude, which leads to increased pitch counts and thus higher OBPs. Higher OBPs, mixed in with some power (whether it's Paul O'Neill or Mark Teixeira), will produce runs and World Series titles. I just hope 2010 follows the same trend as the Yankees teams you discussed.
ReplyDeleteTwo more thoughts. First, I still really love the Fangraphs links. Very helpful. Second, I totally agree about Andy Fox. He's the only Yankee from the Joe Torre Era that I cannot visualize getting a base hit. I know it occurred -- Fangraphs swears it happened 37 times in 1996 -- but I just cannot see it in my memory. Perhaps it was because he couldn't see past his helmet visor...?