Monday, August 2, 2010

Late to the Party: My Reaction on a Busy Trade Deadline for the Yankees

I know, I know, I'm late to the party. But after writing a trade deadline wishlist, I was shocked to see the Yankees check off quite a few boxes. While none of the moves guarantees the Yankees a chance at the playoffs (much less the pennant or the World Series), the deadline transactions shows that Brian Cashman is willing to shrewdly work the system towards the Yankees benefit in different ways than they truly have before. Let's take a look at the deadline moves and, putting them in the context of what they improved on, show that while it's not a clear home run for the Yankees, the July 31st moves were clearly a win.
Austin Kearns adds a solid OF bat (ESPN)

Austin Kearns: Probably my favorite move of all just because it fit a need perfectly. Kearns can play all three outfield positions and is extremely solid out there (with a plus arm). He's played most of his career in rightfield where he has a 58.0 UZR in over 6,000 innings, but moved back to leftfield in 2010 for the first time since 2003. After Kearns was a solid hitter from 2000-2007, his hitting dipped to below average numbers for 2008 and 2009 (with much lower BABIPs) and some felt he may be slowing down. But Kearns has been much better in 2010 (though some of that is buoyed by a great start to the season--.689 OPS since May 18th) and the Yankees were looking for a solid right-handed bat off their bench.

Kearns basically replaces Marcus Thames in the field (big win) and Curtis Granderson at bat against lefties (another big win). Kearns has a career OPS of .799 vs. lefties and his .353 wOBA and .383 OBP are exactly what the Yankees need from him when we consider Granderson has given them a .252 OBP, .538 OPS and a woeful .242 wOBA vs. southpaws. The smart move against lefties would be to play Brett Gardner in CF, Kearns in left, and DH Thames (and more on this below). The fear is that Kearns hot start masked a declining player who will flounder playing for his first big-market team--but I don't see that. For what the Yankees need Kearns for (platoon righty and bench bat), Kearns seems to make perfect sense). That he basically replaced Colin Curtis on the roster is a win (despite the fact I like Curtis). And all for the ole PTBNL or cash it was a shrewd and cheap move in what turned into a light outfield market.

Lance Berkman: The Big Puma is no longer and Fat Elvis seems to reign now--but regardless of which nickname you use, Berkman is a player who can certainly help the Yankees down the stretch. With Nick Johnson in a black hole of injury, the Yankees have been working through a platoon of Marcus Thames and Lance Berkman with a few games of Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada in their DH slot. For all intents and purposes, Berkman replaces Miranda on the roster. No matter how much I liked Miranda in the little time I saw of him, this can't be seen as anything but a win. Now it's never as clear cut as that, though. Lance Berkman is not the same guy who finished in the top-5 in MVP voting 4 different years. He's not even close to the player who put up a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) number of 7.5 in 2008 (only Albert Pujols, Chase Utley and David Wright were higher that year). But Berkman is still a premium hitter who knows how to get on base (career OBP of .409). The biggest problem for Berkman has that he's been bad vs. lefties this year (.188/.278/.281 w/ 1 HR) and was not as good away from Minute Maid Park (almost 200 points lower OPS). But the fact that he's going to have Marcus Thames as his right-handed DH caddy and that he's moving to a good hitters park in the Bronx should alleviate some of those concerns--as does his excellent 16.4% BB rate and his top-20 rank in pitcher per plate appearance (4.14) which makes him another patient, dangerous hitter to work through.


Berkman will mostly DH for the Yanks (Yahoo)
Still, the man who never played outside of Houston and the inferior NL Central may have some adjustments to make to the American League and the media pressure (read: intensity) of the Bronx. And I doubt that he'll be sporting his glove much like in the picture on the right. But this is a guy who has shined in the playoffs and who was heating up in July after an early-season knee injury that he may have come back from too quickly. To get him (and have most of his salary and buyout paid for by the Astros), all the Yankees needed to give up was Mark Melancon (a reliever who unfortunately had not performed as well as many expected him to in the Bronx and may have been too overexposed at the beginning) and a minor league infielder (who doesn't have a position and may not be patient enough to stick as anything more than a utility player). That's not a lot for someone who when healthy and motivated may be a huge stick for the Yankees to insert into that lineup*.

*Side Note: Here are what I think the lineups the Yankees should use vs. lefties and righties. It's unconventional, but they are both deep lineups without a breather.


vs. RHP vs. LHP
1 Brett Gardner Brett Gardner (CF)
2 Derek Jeter Derek Jeter
3 Mark Teixeira Mark Teixeira
4 Alex Rodriguez Alex Rodriguez
5 Robinson Cano Robinson Cano
6 Nick Swisher Nick Swisher
7 Lance Berkman Jorge Posada
8 Jorge Posada Marcus Thames (DH)
9 Curtis Granderson Austin Kearns (LF)

If the opposing teams brings in a lefty to face Granderson and Gardner, they have Marcus Thames and Austin Kearns waiting on the bench. If they bring in a tough righty to face Thames and Kearns, the Yankees can counter with Berkman and Granderson. 

Wood with his new look (ChicagoBreakingSports)
Kerry Wood: Not Scott Downs, Leo Nunez, or Joakim Soria...but for the price of a PTBNL or cash, and getting the Indians to pay for more than half his salary, it's a no-brainer. Wood takes Chan Ho "and away we go..." Park's spot in the bullpen and while I expected CHoP to be much better, Wood is a definite improvement. Now there is a big "if" with Wood: he needs to stay healthy. So much in the same way as Nick Johnson would have been great if he stayed healthy, Wood's value is going to be based on his ability to actually get out there and pitch effectively.

Wood's biggest problem the past few seasons have been walks and this year's mark of 5.57 per 9 is just awful. But the Yankees are banking on him pitching less stressful innings as a non-closer, keeping up his rate of exactly a strikeout an inning, and maybe some luck falling his way after a .332 BABIP has victimized him so far in 2010. He may not be the same Kerry Wood that burst onto the scene in the beginning of the 2000s, but even sans that 20-K ability (and sans his goatee), he may be an effective edition. If he can find a way to put it all together and pitch like he did in 2008, the Yankees have a possible "bridge to Mariano". If not, they dump him and move on to the next guy. It's a low-cost pickup for a guy who has the potential to be very good (as his strikeout of Evan Longoria showed).

Conclusion: This is probably not the end of the Yankees moves before the end of the season. Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, and Andy Pettitte are looking to return to the pitching staff which could mean further changes to the team. If Pettitte returns in mid-August and the Yankees have some sort of divisional lead, they may think about moving Phil Hughes into the bullpen to limit his innings. And waiver wire pickups (maybe for a utility infielder) are always popular with the Yankees who picked up a useful piece in Chad Gaudin during this period last year. None of these are home run moves and you hope that they find a way to gel with a team that was on pace to win 104 games (your worst fear is that you mess with a great team's chemistry like in 2000, but complacency may be even worse), but all these are low-cost moves designed to improve a team with very few glaring holes. Yankees fans wish they were acquiring these guys in 2003 instead of 2010, but they still can be three very useful players.

This trade deadline could have gone very differently had the Yankees been successful in acquiring Cliff Lee. But since they didn't, Cashman employed a new-school approach to deadline acquisitions which is to save your prospects and try to acquire salary dumps for minimal prospects. I disagree with Mike Lupica that the Yankees looked insecure by doing what they did--they didn't blow up the team but instead adding some peripheral guys to help them win (as they did last year with Jerry Hairston, Jr., Eric Hinske, and Chad Gaudin). And I disagree with Patrick Reusse of the Star Tribune who makes it seem like other teams couldn't do what the Yankees did. The Yankees took advantage of Berkman's no-trade clause (he had previously rejected a deal to the White Sox) and got him on the cheap. But they also took two guys off Cleveland's hand because they had the financial room to take them back--and even got the Indians to throw them some money in the deal. Despite the Yankees' financial strength, they have to be good at gaming the system in this way as well and it seems like another case of Cashman deftly working through the system. It's not an A+ deadline, but I'll give it a solid B/B+ for improving the Yankees team going forward.

Your thoughts? Did you dislike any of these moves? Glaring concerns about what they gave up or who these guys are replacing? Are you worried about the Yankees going forward? Wished they would have gone out and gotten more? Let us know in the comments below.

For more reading: FanGraphs on Wood, Kearns, and Berkman. ESPN's Rob Neyer on Berkman. ESPN's Keith Law on Berkman. ESPN's Jayson Stark on the whole deadline. LoHud's Chad Jennings on the new guys. New York Daily News' John Harper on the deadline. Baseball Think Factory via ESPN with grades. Baseball Prospectus on the AL movements. And River Ave Blues on the possible improvements.

6 comments:

  1. Great write-up, Andy. In particular I really agree with your lineups, and also touched on swapping Gardner and Jeter today over at Yankeeist. Unfortunately I don't expect Girardi to try it again since it didn't quite work out the first time around, but Jeter is not only currently the worst hitter in the Yankee lineup (even Curtis Granderson now has a higher wOBA) but he's also not getting on base at a high-enough clip to continue leading off for the team.

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  2. how fast is Wood throwing these days? I missed the game yesterday. Just curious. It would be nice if they could find someone on waivers that could hit lead off for them and move Jeter to his natural 2 hole. I am all for Gardner doing it but if he hots 9 it almost works the same except he doews not have the implied pressure of being lead-off. I advise you stop reading Lupica he is a clown. i flipped thru and caught him giving some political views on the Sports Reporters a few weeks back. That is like listening to Ozzy Osbourne on how to raise your kids.

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  3. Thanks Larry. The Yankees really need to move Jeter out of that leadoff spot. It worked last year with Damon but it hasn't worked this year. I agree they probably won't do it, but they should.

    According to PitchFX (http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=304&position=P) Wood's fastball is still at 95 so it's not like he's fallen off too much in velocity (though not high 90s anymore)

    I will avoid Mike Lupica from now on. lol. Thanks for the advice!

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  4. Amazing how many different ways this deadline was going as well with first the Cliff Lee and Dan Haren rumors and then the Dunn/Berkman moves and then the search for an outfielder/bullpen arm/bench bat/utility infielder. They could have gotten Mike Lowell according to Ken Rosenthal (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Yankees-pursued-Red-Sox-infielder-Mike-Lowell-at-deadline) so it really was a wild trade deadline (in many aspects).

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  5. Well done Andrew as I tend to agree. The only one I question a little bit is Berkman just because of the money. $9 million with $16m team option is quite a lot for a slightly above avg On Base guy. His better days are behind him but he does get on base a lot which is always good.

    The thing I like with these two pickups though is the Yankees actually have depth. In the middle of the lost decade, I used to be amazed on how the team would have a $200 payroll and no bench. I mean it was a joke. 2009, the Yanks had a formible bench and then added Hairston which was a good move. Now, they might have their best bench in years. Let's just hope Kearns coud do something.

    As for Wood, I really don't have much expectations from this "clown" but its worth the risk. When healthy, he could get a couple of big outs in playoffs and that's the important thing. Stats don't tell the story of relievers as I always try to point out to Andrew. It's about getting big outs in big situations (ex - Staton in the late 90's)

    One more thought about lineup, I might be the first to bring this up. Now that A-Rod is struggling because he's stuck on 599 (I knew this was coming, is it 2004-05 again???), he's put together a pretty lousy year. Look at his OBP, it's bad. He should not be battting 4th. Now, I won't do anything drastic (Joe Torre!) but how about swithching him with Cano? Let Cano bat 4th (I know, a far cry from what I said about him earlier). He's an MVP canidate, he deserves a shot, and maybe A-rod will give him some protection, or maybe not.

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  6. Well Girardi has certainly taken my lineup suggestions today (though with a guy with reverse splits, it might not have been the best game for it).

    Paul, the Yankees are only going to be paying Berkman $3M of the $7M (including buy out) he's due. So for $3M, it's a good price for a guy who is better at getting on base than you give him credit for. He hasn't been great so far, but I think this is a good pickup.

    I don't think they should swap A-Rod and Cano. Cano is still getting plenty of RBI opportunities and has plenty of protection. I say leave him where he is.

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